How can Pacific Island nations progress climate action?

CANBERRA — Unwilling to budge on coal and emissions reduction targets during the Pacific Islands Forum in August, Australia has blocked efforts by small island states to get Pacific-wide consensus on its declaration for stronger action on climate change. Strategies to secure the future of the Pacific was the focus of the Pacific Islands Forum communique, released to the public days after a fiery meeting of Pacific leaders saw declarations on climate being a sticking point in discussions last month. “Australia failed to recognize climate change for what it is — a global crisis.” --— The meeting saw late Tongan Prime Minister Akilisi Pohiva being reportedly brought to tears. Fijian President Frank Bainimarama echoed his counterparts’ disappointment when he said, “I came into this week with high hopes for finding common ground with all of our regional neighbors on climate change.” With Australia, the largest economy in their neighborhood, unwilling to stand up for the Pacific on climate change, the challenge now is convincing other nations to commit to strong action on emissions reductions. Experts weighed in with their advice. Red lines from Australia The 12 hour-long meeting to identify priorities for cooperation and engagement in the Pacific region has been described as “fierce” by participants. Vanuatu Foreign Minister Ralph Regenvanu told media there were red lines from Australia on what would be negotiated — coal, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and zero emissions by 2050 were all out. “Australia failed to recognize climate change for what it is — a global crisis,” Bainimarama said, adding that he and other Pacific heads of government will continue to push the region’s carbon emitter to transition from coal to clean energy. This was the first forum meeting Bainimarama had attended since Fiji’s suspension from the forum in 2009, but Pacific nations had set the scene in advance of the meeting with calls to action established through the Nandi Bay Declaration. In response, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a reallocation of Australian aid funds to support more climate initiatives. Pacific leaders planned to go hard regardless of the funds Australia was committing to the region — but the response from Australia was never in doubt. The recent federal election had put climate front and center with the Coalition promoting a so-called “sensible approach” to action that would limit the impact on the Australian mining sector and economic growth. “As everybody is hearing it was firey and people are saying people are disappointed, and so we should be,” Yvonne Underhill-Sem, associate professor at the University of Auckland, explained in an interview. “This is considered to be the place where we can iron out some problems. It didn’t happen.” Having Australia, a neighbor that promotes itself as “stepping up” for the Pacific on its side and committed to strong action was important to the forum. It would have been an important ally to encourage stronger commitments from world leaders as part of the Climate Action Summit in September and the U.N. Climate Change conference to be held in London next year. But this is certainly not an end to action and advocacy, as Bainimarama said, with a number of strategies available to encourage commitment and change that will limit global warming and its impacts on vulnerable countries that are already seeing its effects. Take action against Australia Calls to remove Australia from the Pacific Islands Forum from former Kiribati President Anote Tong immediately followed the leaders’ meeting, with him telling media that sanctions should be considered for nations continuing to push coal expansion. But reconsidering whether countries such as Australia are “family” for the Pacific is another way to take action. “We need to get rid of the notion that this is a family,” Underhill-Sem said. “In this particular meeting, self-interest was so strong in terms of what Australia was reluctant to change in their position.” In changing the notion of partnerships as family, Pacific nations may be more willing to promote their self-interest and create a space that makes it difficult to engage if discussions for climate are off the table. Promote the reality of climate change Professor Mark Howden, director of the Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University, told Devex the science behind climate change is being questioned less and less. “The recent Lowy Institute survey showed that 90% of Australians wanted action on climate change,” he said. “Around 60% wanted action now despite costs, and 30% wanted it a bit gradual at less of a cost. But only around 7% of the survey respondents didn’t believe, know or want any climate action. They now understand it’s real and it makes my job easier.” But despite this, the reality of a changing climate was not always obvious. “From where I sit, having worked within government and outside for the Pacific on many occasions, there is a lack of awareness as to how dire the problem is in places like Australia,” Richie Merzian, director of the Climate and Energy Program with The Australia Institute, told Devex. “Even though many Australians are feeling the impact of climate, they feel satisfied that the government is doing as efficient an amount to have a sensible and balanced approach.” Continuing to humanize and communicate the impacts of climate change that are happening now within the Pacific and among other low-lying nations is an important strategy Merzian recommends to encourage greater awareness, understanding, and support for climate action. “In Tuvalu, the PR exercise of having children submerged in a long pool at the airport so leaders had to walk past and shake hands with children who are emulating the death of their country is just one of the stark, clear, picture ready ways of capturing that impact,” he said. “It is the only way you are going to cut through to some of those regions that have the base level of concern but don’t really understand the magnitude of what is required.” The photo of the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on the cover of Time magazine was another example of this PR down well, leveraging a powerful figure with global influence, he said. “You have to sway hearts and minds, otherwise you will lose out to these ‘sensible approaches,’” Merzian said, referencing the Australian prime minister’s plan for climate action. Encourage sub-national climate action and corporate responsibility Merzian also called for sub-national levels of government to limit the impact of climate change. “When sub-level governments call a climate emergency or climate crisis, it is a great entry point,” Merzian said. “As soon as you can win people over to the change of language, the next question is what does a government in a climate emergency look like and what does it mean for everything that you are doing? It provides a fresh frame on a climate emergency that fits into a 1.5 degree scenario.” Changing the practices of the private sector to focus on climate action as part of their business was also important, with Merzian explaining that the time needed for action meant a “stick rather than carrot approach” was required — and calling for action at shareholder meetings including divestment from interests that were not green was important. “The investment story, is important, but to maximise that you still need the right investment environment,” Howden said. And despite the opportunities in the private sector, a strong policy and operational framework is needed in all countries to encourage the private sector transition quickly. Partnering with Europe for climate action Pacific nations working together for uniform calls on climate action is already taking place. But external voices that echo and magnify those calls for climate action are also needed to win in the game of global politics. Who those leading players will be is still emerging. “There are so many combinations of national and political interests that could play out,” Howden said. “It’s hard to predict what is going to happen and how to play that if you are a Pacific Island nation. Clearly there is a global sensitivity to the needs, not just of small island states but other low-lying countries such as Bangladesh, as well as a whole raft of other countries who are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change — including Australia.” Howden predicts blocs will be formed by several countries that will play out in the September summit, and resistance from the big fossil fuel players to maintain the circumstances largely as they are. “We’ve already seen statements coming from the Australian government that they have released their commitment and that is it — they will not be committing to anything further,” Howden said. New Zealand, Singapore, and Japan can be among the other leaders in this space, Howden continued explaining, but the geopolitics of the Pacific region has also put China into the picture. Media commentary following the Pacific Islands Forum suggested that the clash with Australia would see Pacific nations choose to partner with China — despite them still being the largest emitter of greenhouse gases and not among the nations with a net-zero carbon target. It is Europe that is home to the strongest climate targets and commitments to action outside of the Pacific and where Howden believes partnerships for climate action can be expected. The United Kingdom is also working quietly behind the scenes to encourage stronger climate policies from countries such as Australia. “Even in a time of economic instability, the U.K. has doubled down and said this is the time for us to be climate leaders,” Merzian said. “It’s really powerful and goes to the depth of their resolve to address climate change. The U.K. is a wonderful example that, regardless of what is going on in domestic politics, you can still be a climate leader.” For the Pacific, the meeting in Tuvalu showed that countries in the region are becoming clearer in the action they want and expect from the world. And they are willing to be vocal.