How the talent landscape may shift post-USAID

In the wake of the over 9,500 potential USAID redundancies — and thousands more by implementing partners — many affected will turn to consulting as a means of staying and earning in the sector, say development career experts. The result, however, could be an oversaturated development consultancy market, and likely a subsequent lowering of market rates, with ramifications for remaining sector employees as well, they add. “A big trend I see happening is the shift from full-time employment in the aid sector through USAID, through an implementer, to what is traditionally called a portfolio career where people have a number of different projects and contracts that they cobble together,” said Nick Martin, CEO of social enterprise TechChange, which provides online professional development in technology and social change. “That will be a new version of what a 40-hour work week looks like.” According to the USAID Stop Work site, over 170,000 jobs have been lost globally in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement in January to freeze aid funding and cut the majority of support to programs. Over 50,000 of those jobs are in the U.S. While other funders such as the Skoll Foundation and the Gates Foundation are stepping in with increased funding, it won’t be enough to provide jobs for everyone who has lost one, said Stephanie Mansueto, a social impact career coach. With that in mind, consultancies might be some people’s only way of staying within the sector. “It's not just about people getting jobs. … People are going to have to shift from this employer-type of model to a diversity of things,” said Kelsi Kriitmaa, a Geneva-based social impact coach who runs a social impact consulting accelerator, which provides advice for how to transition into consulting. “It's about getting different types of contracts that affect stability for them, their families, how they work, how they live. … They're going to be doing coaching, consulting, fractional roles, courses, communities, board work.” As of now, there are nearly 2,000 short-term and long-term consultant positions on Devex’s jobs board from organizations such as the International Business & Technical Consultants, Inc., Expertise France and Winrock International. The area of expertise spanned technology, system integration, communication, architecture, and engineering. With so many people looking for work, there is likely to be an abundance of applications. But Loksan Harley, co-founder of the Impact Consulting Hub, warned that existing consultants haven’t been immune from the cuts either, particularly those heavily reliant on U.S.-funded contracts experiencing suspended projects and stalled tender processes. “The freeze has underscored the vulnerabilities in the consultancy sector, especially the risks associated with dependency on a single donor,” he told Devex in an email, adding that in the medium term, this means there are more consultants available relative to the work provided by remaining employers. The impact on compensation An oversaturation of consultants has the potential to drive down market rates, the experts say. “The biggest thing that I'm fearful of is that people are going to start low-balling themselves, which undercuts the sector,” said Kriitmaa, adding that there is very little transparency around consulting fees, making it hard to know what to charge. “People who have never consulted before might — which is not the thing to do — take their annual salary [and] divide it by 21.75 working days a month. … But you have to add in your health insurance, benefits, liability insurance,” she explained, adding that her Social Impact Consulting Accelerator includes a module on how to price yourself as a consultant. The USAID Stop Work website lists a variety of resources specific to this topic, such as The Public Health Consultant's Starter Kit and The Consulting Nest. The Career Pivot newsletter, launched by Wayan Vota in the wake of the cuts in February, is also hosting virtual events on the topic. The likes of Glassdoor and Payscale also offer reference points, while experts have previously spoken to Devex about how to negotiate such rates, and Devex hosts events to help those wishing to make a turn to consulting. At TechChange, Martin said he is seeing people who used to charge more now charging 25%-50% less to be more competitive, but Harley has not yet noticed an impact on consultancy market rates. Still, he said, “One would expect the short to medium-term increase in the supply of consultants with declining demand for consultants to place downward pressure on these prices.” Many smaller- and medium-sized donors also won’t necessarily be able to afford to pay the consultancy fees previously offered by USAID-funded programs, Kriitmaa said. This might force people to consider supplementary work outside of the development sector, perhaps through passion projects such as e-commerce or yoga teaching, she added. “This is going to spark a lot of people to take their side hustles that they do for fun or for passion, and maybe make that their main gig.” Alternatively, some might use their transferable skills to pivot into areas of project management, strategic planning, and organizational development, said Harley, who advises consultants to diversify their client base. “Opportunities may arise in the private sector, corporate social responsibility initiatives, ESG consulting, and other government-funded projects unrelated to U.S. aid,” he said. The challenge with stepping away from the development sector — although many will have no choice as they look for work — is the subsequent brain drain and loss of talent, Mansueto said. She is concerned that this may leave a void when situations arise that require their expertise. “What happens if we have a new social services administration in the next several years, and you have tens of thousands of people that left in this time? ... What if there's another global pandemic and we need global health professionals?” she posited. The impact on salaried positions For those who manage to retain a position in the sector at this time, it will also not be without its challenges. Survivors’ guilt, for example, said Kriitmaa, is very real, and this might lead to power inequities between employers and employees. “Starting from that scarcity mindset of ‘I should be grateful just to have a job,’ can breed so many toxic workplace practices,” she shared. For those experiencing such feelings, Kriitmaa recommended anchoring back to values and goals. “If you're staying, it’s because there’s still work you believe in, and that's enough. It’s OK to want some stability right now,” she said. There may also be employers, said Vota, who see this as an opportunity to get more work for less pay. “We have an excess of talent on the market. They don't have as much negotiating power,” said Mansueto, adding that overseas employers may also be deterred at this time from hiring U.S. nationals, especially amid a push for more locally led development. She recommended job seekers collect real-time market data by saving job postings that list salaries from related employers and reference these with a hiring manager during negotiations, while Kriitmaa said to see it more as “alignment” rather than “negotiation.” “Even if negotiating salary or benefits is tough right now, you can still advocate for clarity, boundaries, reasonable expectations, or professional development,” she said. As a result of cuts, employees may also no longer have access to training opportunities and travel, which can affect morale. “If you don't feel like a company can invest in professional development opportunities because their revenues are just down … it's definitely going to impact morale,” Mansueto said. “You're going to have a lot more people staying in their jobs, even if they're unhappy with them.” Thinking of becoming a consultant? Browse thousands of consulting opportunities on the Devex job board