Inside the Biden administration’s $27.7 billion final business forecast

On Dec. 11, the U.S. Agency for International Development held its business forecast call for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2025. This also marked the Biden administration’s last list of anticipated contracts before Donald Trump assumes the presidency in January. Besides its importance for business development planning, the forecast also guides the development community in assessing USAID’s future direction, priorities, and budget. USAID shared a final list of upcoming contracts after the call. We looked into the data to identify trends and see where USAID will spend its money in the coming months. The overall figures The latest forecast contains 190 opportunities, worth $27.7 billion — with an average contract price of $145.7 million. This is the least number of opportunities in USAID’s pipeline and the highest average contract amount since the first quarter, or Q1, of 2022, which was our first comprehensive coverage of the business forecast. USAID will employ several procurement methods in awarding the contracts. Of these, 31 opportunities, worth $8.6 billion, will be awarded via stand-alone contracts; seven awards, worth $7.4 billion, will be awarded through indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity contracts, aka IDIQ; and 69 awards, worth $6.2 billion, will be made via cooperative agreements. The data also shows that the bulk of opportunities are scheduled for solicitation in Q1 and Q2 2025 — 58 opportunities, worth nearly $5 billion, are scheduled for Q1 2025 and 82 opportunities, worth $4.1 billion, for Q2 2025, although some will be solicited as late as Q4 2027. On the other hand, more than half of the contracts are due to be awarded in Q3 and Q4 2025 — 52 opportunities worth $2.9 billion in Q3 2025 and 64 opportunities worth $5.9 billion in Q4 2025. As with all the forecasts, the information is provisional. This means that USAID may adjust both the solicitation dates and award dates at any time. <div class='tableauPlaceholder' id='viz1734325943361' style='position: relative'><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Dashboard 1 ' src='https:&#47;&#47;public.tableau.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;US&#47;USAIDbusinessforecastQ12025&#47;Dashboard1&#47;1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class='tableauViz' style='display:none;'><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='embed_code_version' value='3' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='USAIDbusinessforecastQ12025&#47;Dashboard1' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='https:&#47;&#47;public.tableau.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;US&#47;USAIDbusinessforecastQ12025&#47;Dashboard1&#47;1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /><param name='language' value='en-US' /><param name='filter' value='publish=yes' /></object><param name='showShareOptions' value='false' /></div> <script type='text/javascript'> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1734325943361'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 800 ) { vizElement.style.width='580px';vizElement.style.height='1507px';} else if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 500 ) { vizElement.style.width='580px';vizElement.style.height='1507px';} else { vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height='1827px';} var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script> <i style=font-style: georgia;”>The above interactive table shows USAID’s anticipated opportunities by missions and sectors based on its business forecast.</i> Which opportunities are in? Based on our findings, 108 opportunities worth $24.6 billion were also included in the previous quarter. NextGen, USAID’s suite of health supply chain contracts, worth $10.3 billion, accounted for 41.8% of the total amount for readvertised opportunities. The forecast also included 80 new contracts worth $3 billion — $2.4 billion of which will be procured in USAID missions and the remaining $685.8 million in Washington. Among USAID missions, the largest budget is earmarked for Mozambique, with $409.9 million for six contracts. Two of these contracts, worth up to $100 million each, will address the HIV epidemic in Manica, Niassa, Sofala, and Tete. Another $100 million contract will create a transport management system for the efficient delivery of medical commodities in the country. Other missions with sizable allocations include South Africa with $214 million, Egypt with $175 million, Sudan with $150 million, and Bangladesh with $135 million. Several USAID bureaus and offices also added new opportunities this quarter. The largest budget came from the Office of Health Systems, for the $300 million NextGen Medical Product Quality Assurance and Production Systems, or MedQAPS, which aims to improve medical products in low- and middle-income countries. The Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance ranked next, with $204.9 million, the Office of HIV/AIDS, with $100 million, and the Bureau for Conflict Prevention and Stabilization, with $50 million. Global health remains the priority among sectors, with $703.9 million for 11 new opportunities. Then HIV/AIDS, with $574.9 million, economic growth and trade, with $409.9 million, agriculture and food security, with $288.9 million, and democracy, human rights, and governance, with $280.9 million. Which opportunities are out? Devex also tracked the opportunities that exited the pipeline. According to USAID, forecasted contracts may be delisted from the pipeline for three reasons: an award has been made, the opportunity has been canceled, or funding is no longer available. We also noticed that some opportunities may get temporarily removed whenever they are being updated. Overall, 137 opportunities from the previous forecast, worth nearly $6 billion, were removed from the latest list of anticipated awards. This included six contracts worth $300 million each. Meanwhile, two opportunities were readded this quarter: a $25 million contract to address multidrug-resistant TB in Indonesia and $10 million for the Mali Localization Annual Program Statement, or APS. What about NextGen? Several contracts under NextGen have already been awarded over the course of our coverage of the business forecast. The latest pipeline now includes just four of the eight original contracts, all with information similar to the previous forecast: • PSA HIV, worth over $3 billion. • Integrated PSA, worth over $3 billion. • PSA Diagnostics, worth up to $2.8 billion • ICL, worth up to $1.5 billion. All four contracts are expected to be awarded this month. The QuTI award, which was last seen on the forecast in September, has been awarded to FHI 360, worth $250 million according to Sam.gov figures. Its original maximum contract amount was $300 million. Finally, six contracts funded under NextGen were also included in this quarter, two of which are new contracts: the $300 million MedQAPS and a $100 million communication and knowledge management IDIQ under CompTA. <div class='tableauPlaceholder' id='viz1734325762275' style='position: relative'><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='All opps ' src='https:&#47;&#47;public.tableau.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;US&#47;USAIDbusinessforecastQ12025allopportunities&#47;Allopps&#47;1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class='tableauViz' style='display:none;'><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='embed_code_version' value='3' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='USAIDbusinessforecastQ12025allopportunities&#47;Allopps' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='https:&#47;&#47;public.tableau.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;US&#47;USAIDbusinessforecastQ12025allopportunities&#47;Allopps&#47;1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /><param name='language' value='en-US' /><param name='filter' value='publish=yes' /><param name='showShareOptions' value='false' /></object></div> <script type='text/javascript'> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1734325762275'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 800 ) { vizElement.style.width='580px';vizElement.style.height='607px';} else if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 500 ) { vizElement.style.width='580px';vizElement.style.height='607px';} else { vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height='727px';} var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script> <i style=font-style: georgia;”>USAID’s anticipated opportunities in Q1 2025 based on its business forecast.</i> Try out Devex Pro Funding today with a free five-day trial, and explore funding opportunities from over 850 sources in addition to our analysis and news content.