Interactive: Inside USAID’s $23.3B business forecast

On June 27, the U.S. Agency for International Development held its last business forecast call for the fiscal year 2024. The call serves as an avenue to discuss plans and report on progress on current initiatives — including localization. After the call, USAID shared a final list of anticipated opportunities for the quarter, along with a Q&A document that addresses concerns and questions submitted weeks before. We downloaded the data and crunched the numbers to see what the agency plans to prioritize in the coming months. The forecasted awards are also publicly available via USAID’s website. The portal gets updated regularly, which may explain the slight differences in figures with this analysis. Overall, the data shows that USAID has a maximum budget of $23.3 billion for 210 anticipated awards in its pipeline. What are the new opportunities? Based on our findings, 150 opportunities, worth $18.3 billion, were also included in the previous forecast. A significant portion of this went to NextGen contracts — USAID’s flagship initiative on the global health supply chain. Meanwhile, 57 new opportunities, worth $3.2 billion, were added this quarter. Of this, 51 contracts, worth $1.76 billion, will be procured in USAID missions around the world, while the remaining six awards, worth $1.45 billion, will be procured in Washington. Among USAID mission contracts, the biggest allocation will be spent in the Democratic Republic of Congo, worth $350 million for four contracts — $100 million to strengthen primary health care in DRC’s provinces, $100 million to support value chain and market linkages, $100 million for the five-year Integrated Health Service Delivery Accelerator Activity, and $50 million for the Localization Capacity Strengthening Support Mechanism. Other missions with sizable budgets include Afghanistan, with $200 million; Pakistan, with $125 million; Ukraine, with $104 million; Guatemala, with $100 million; and Zambia, with $54 million. <div class='tableauPlaceholder' id='viz1719827745938' style='position: relative'><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='USAID BF Q3 2024 ' src='https:&#47;&#47;public.tableau.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;US&#47;USAIDbusinessforecastQ32024&#47;USAIDBFQ32024&#47;1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class='tableauViz' style='display:none;'><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='embed_code_version' value='3' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='USAIDbusinessforecastQ32024&#47;USAIDBFQ32024' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='https:&#47;&#47;public.tableau.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;US&#47;USAIDbusinessforecastQ32024&#47;USAIDBFQ32024&#47;1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /><param name='language' value='en-US' /><param name='filter' value='publish=yes' /><param name='showShareOptions' value='false' /></object></div><script type='text/javascript'>var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1719827745938');var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0];if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 800 ) { vizElement.style.width='720px';vizElement.style.minHeight='927px';vizElement.style.maxHeight='1627px';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px';} else if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 500 ) { vizElement.style.width='720px';vizElement.style.minHeight='927px';vizElement.style.maxHeight='1627px';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px';} else { vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height='1177px';}var scriptElement = document.createElement('script');scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);</script><i style=font-style: georgia;”>Geographical and sectoral breakdown of USAID anticipated awards, based on its latest business forecast.</i> Meanwhile, five USAID offices and bureaus in Washington, D.C. also added new opportunities this quarter. The largest came from the Bureau for Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance, or DRG, with $1 billion for a single contract that will support its program on good governance. Another $350 million came from the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance; $100 million from the Bureau for Resilience, Environment, and Food Security; $4 million from the Local, Faith, and Transformative Partnerships Hub; and $150,000 from the Office of Health Systems. Sectorally, the democracy, human rights, and governance sectors received the largest allocation, with $1.2 billion for 11 new opportunities. Health ranked next, with $504.1 million; economic growth and trade, with $336.9 million; then ending extreme poverty, with $300 million. Which opportunities are out? Aside from the new contracts, Devex has been tracking forecasted awards that exited the pipeline. USAID removes anticipated awards from its portal for three reasons: a contract has been awarded, the opportunities have been canceled, or funding is no longer available. Over the course of our data coverage, we also noticed that it is usual for some opportunities to get temporarily removed whenever they are being updated. This could last for weeks, even months. Overall, 90 anticipated contracts from Q2, worth $7.3 billion, were removed from the current pipeline. This included the $3 billion NextGen PSA HIV contract. Our tracker shows that PSA HIV last appeared on the business forecast portal in the first week of May. The other large opportunities that were delisted are: • Global Health Social and Behavior Change award, worth up to $500 million. • HSS Integrated Design, worth up to $500 million. • BHA Madagascar Resilience Food Security Activity, worth up to $300 million. This quarter, we were also able to spot three opportunities that were previously delisted but were subsequently readded. This included the Energy IDIQ III — USAID’s $1.5 billion global contracting mechanism for energy sector programs — the Rule of Law IDIQ Mechanism from DRG, worth $300 million, and the Sudan Support for Locally-led Development Approaches Annual Program Statement, or APS, worth $10 million. In March, USAID released a request for information, or RFI, related to the Energy IDIQ III, followed by a pre-bidders conference call the following month. In brief: NextGen The latest pipeline also included four NextGen contracts, with a combined worth of $7.6 billion. This accounted for nearly a third of the total forecasted budget. The anticipated award dates for two NextGen contracts were pushed further back: • Integrated PSA, worth over $3 billion — from May to September 2024. • QuTI, worth up to $300 million — from June to July 2024. There were no changes around PSA Diagnostics and the In-country Logistics, or ICL, contracts, worth up to $2.8 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively. Both contracts are expected to be awarded in December. <div class='tableauPlaceholder' id='viz1719827904196' style='position: relative'><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='USAID BF Q3 2024 (all opportunities) ' src='https:&#47;&#47;public.tableau.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;US&#47;USAIDbusinessforecastQ32024allanticipatedawards&#47;USAIDBFQ32024allopportunities&#47;1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class='tableauViz' style='display:none;'><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='embed_code_version' value='3' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='USAIDbusinessforecastQ32024allanticipatedawards&#47;USAIDBFQ32024allopportunities' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='https:&#47;&#47;public.tableau.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;US&#47;USAIDbusinessforecastQ32024allanticipatedawards&#47;USAIDBFQ32024allopportunities&#47;1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /><param name='language' value='en-US' /><param name='filter' value='publish=yes' /></object></div> <script type='text/javascript'> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1719827904196'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 800 ) { vizElement.style.width='720px';vizElement.style.height='467px';} else if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 500 ) { vizElement.style.width='720px';vizElement.style.height='467px';} else { vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height='727px';}var scriptElement = document.createElement('script');scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);</script><i style=font-style: georgia;”>USAID’s list of anticipated awards in Q3 2024, based on its latest business forecast.</i> Update, July 1, 2024: This article has been updated to add that USAID published the final list of anticipated calls as well as the Q&A document after the call. 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