Interactive: The AfDB's first pipeline data in a year — and what it tells us

The African Development Bank has released its quarterly operational summary, or QOS, for the beginning of 2018. The QOS details the pipeline of projects under consideration for bank financing, with information on potential project budgets, executing agencies, and other details of interest to stakeholders in the bank’s activities. Similar to the World Bank’s Monthly Operational Summaries, or USAID’s Business Forecast, it offers a glance at future bank operations, and the opportunities these may generate for partners and contractors. This most recent edition of the QOS contained 107 pipeline projects worth a projected $6.27 billion. However, data from this particular edition of the QOS needs to be used carefully by analysts and business development teams. To begin with, it is slightly different from other donors’ pipeline documents in that it includes projects “for which financing has been approved ... during the last six months and those which are expected to be submitted to the boards for approval during the next six months.” Rather than show a full pipeline, it shows projects as they approach and pass the end of the project preparation cycle. This is useful for contractors, as it implies these projects will soon offer them procurement opportunities. Second, however, it is the first QOS to be released for a year. Perhaps to compensate for three missing quarterly reports, it contains projects approved as far back as 2016. Some of these have already moved on to implementation and procurement. A Devex analysis shows that at least 20 projects worth $829 million that are listed in the Q1 2018 QOS have begun procurement, and 38 others worth $2.06 billion have begun implementation but not yet generated opportunities, according to AfDB’s project portal. One project in the pipeline, aimed at assisting the South Sudanese government to apply for membership to the Trade Development Bank and Africa Trade Insurance Agency, has already successfully completed. If we remove all projects that have completed or begun procurement, the “pipeline” of AfDB projects is reduced to 86, worth $5.4 billion. If we also remove any projects already in implementation, there remain 49 worth $3.4 billion. Where procurement has begun, the projects can already be found as opportunities in Devex’s funding database. Further complicating analysis of the pipeline is the fact that all projects included in it have already been approved by the bank’s boards; there are none “which are expected to be submitted to the Boards for approval during the next six months.” This makes this edition of the QOS less a pipeline document, and more a list of recent project approvals. This is useful in the short term, but less so in the medium to long-term, especially if there is another 12-month delay until the next QOS. With these considerations in mind, we take a look at what the latest QOS can tell us. AfDB Pipeline as of March 2018 The projects in the Q1 2018 QOS focus on North and Central African countries, and the sectors of energy, institutional development, finance, industry, and trade. Morocco and Tunisia, two of the most-supported regional member countries of the AfDB historically, have pipelines worth $536 million and $467 million respectively. Morocco’s pipeline projects include financing for the Tekcim cement plant; additional financing for the Morocco Agency for Sustainable Energy’s work on the Noor Midelt Solar Energy Complex; and phase one of a national industrialization program. Tunisia has two digital economy-focused projects: Support for its national Digital Tunisia 2020 plan; and a technological skills development program. In Central Africa, Gabon had a single large project of $357 million for phase two of an economic and financial reform program (PAREF II). In nearby Cameroon, there were two large, ongoing projects: One for competitiveness and economic growth (PACCE), and another for more financing for the Nachtigal Hydropower Plant. Kenya, Rwanda, and Cote d’Ivoire also had large pipelines, including the construction of a second runway at Jomo Kenyatta airport in Nairobi; financing for Cote d’Ivoire’s national airline; and a large water and sanitation program in Rwanda. This last project is one of several pipeline projects being funded through the bank’s private sector operations. The bank works with the private sector across Africa in a variety of ways, and some of these efforts are evident in its pipeline projects. Much of the private sector funding is allocated to local financial institutions, such as South Africa’s Nedbank and Kenya’s KCB. Some is also allocated to infrastructure and industrial development projects — particularly hydro and solar energy centers in Uganda, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, and Morocco. Most interestingly, there are several investments in Africa-focused private equity firms, such as South Africa-based Inspired Evolution’s Evolution Fund II, which makes equity investments in sustainable energy and infrastructure, and Barcelona-based Mediterrania Capital Partners’ third fund for African equity investments. There are also some important gaps in the pipeline data. There are no projects in the Q1 2018 QOS for several regional member countries of the AfDB: Algeria, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Mozambique, and Niger. Mozambique is especially interesting, as the board recently approved a new 2018-2022 Country Strategy Paper for the bank’s operations in the country. It’s likely the pipeline there will reappear, but is less certain for other countries. Read more with Devex’s AfDB Contractor Insights series.