The return of Donald Trump is likely to shake up U.S. politics — but how much will it change the world of global development? We’ve got a wide range of insights into what happens next.
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Trump over time
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Want to know how USAID spending might change under Trump? Let’s go back and look at what happened the last time he was in office.
My colleague Miguel Antonio Tamonan evaluated how USAID funding has changed over the past decade, under three different presidents.
In terms of how much money gets spent, the answer is that it’s grown. Responses to the pandemic and then the war in Ukraine have sent USAID’s budget steadily skyward over recent years. And there haven’t been any major changes in terms of recipient countries or sectors.
So while it seems very possible that the Republican administration will look to make major changes to USAID spending, it also seems possible that it will have a hard time making progress.
And perhaps that’s not surprising. The Democrats have just spent four years trying to get USAID to spend money on local leadership, and it’s not obvious that their efforts have made much difference at all. Bureaucracy and inertia have so far looked capable of defeating all comers.
Read: How US aid spending changed over time — from Obama to Trump to Biden (Pro)
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Funding activity
We publish tenders, grants, and other funding announcements on our Funding Platform. Here are some of the ones that have been viewed the most in the past 10 days.
The African Development Bank will provide $170 million to build a wind farm in Egypt.
The Asian Development Bank has approved a $500 million loan to expand access to financial services to vulnerable groups in Indonesia.
UNOPS intends to award up to $60,000 per grantee to promote climate finance transparency worldwide.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has opened a $5 million grant competition to strengthen HIV prevention in Malawi.
The World Bank has announced $660 million of funding to expand rail connectivity in Turkey.
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Blond ambition
We’ve seen in the data that there weren’t major changes to USAID spending during the first Trump term. But what about the second time around? After all, the reasoning goes, Trump’s got a lot more power and a lot more experience this time. Maybe he’ll get more done.
Leaving aside the fact that Republicans may be more willing to challenge Trump in the U.S. Congress than expected, our analysis of the key contenders for USAID leadership suggests that many are moderates who were already influential in aid during the last Trump administration.
For now, Mike Shanley, who helps organizations bid for USAID funds, is anticipating evolution rather than revolution. In an ask-me-anything session with our Pro readers last week, he told me he thinks any changes will be “targeted” rather than wholesale.
Read: Will bidding for USAID contracts be different under Trump? (Pro)
ICYMI: Return to Trumpworld — who will shape US aid policy? (Pro)
Finally, moving on from USAID, how is philanthropy likely to change under Trump?
No one is quite sure, is the honest truth, but there are a lot of nerves out there, because philanthropic foundations are not well loved by the MAGA movement. Plus, Trump’s approach to taxes is likely to significantly reduce the incentives to give.
Will foundations come out swinging and up their giving to causes that Trump tries to defund? Don’t hold your breath, say the experts.
Read: Here's how philanthropy may change under Trump (Pro)
+ Check out our page dedicated to the future of U.S. aid.
How much more?
The World Bank had called for the biggest-ever replenishment of the International Development Association, the bank’s fund for low-income countries — and last week it did achieve that, technically. Pledges came to $23.7 billion, compared to $23.5 billion at the last time of asking.
Although it’s a record figure, it’s not even a 1% increase — which, when inflation and growth are taken into account, means it’s considerably less generous. Still, World Bank President Ajay Banga was able to claim a win. Just.
For most commentators, though, the results are disappointing.
Read: World Bank calls IDA pledges a win. Critics aren’t so sure
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Terrible, but not as bad
The humanitarian situation in the world remains in a terrible state, with more than 300 million people in need of support, and up to $47.4 billion needed for that support.
But even that is a lot better than it was two years ago, when the population in need reached 363 million, and the funding required peaked at $56.7 billion.
It’s the second year in a row that funding needs have fallen, after almost a decade of steady increases.
Read: Is a worldwide humanitarian crisis slowly starting to ease?
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About the author
David Ainsworth@daveainsworth4
David Ainsworth is business editor at Devex, where he writes about finance and funding issues for development institutions. He was previously a senior writer and editor for magazines specializing in nonprofits in the U.K. and worked as a policy and communications specialist in the nonprofit sector for a number of years. His team specializes in understanding reports and data and what it teaches us about how development functions.
