New data platform allows real-time conflict analysis at US State Department

WASHINGTON — The State Department is using a new internal advanced data and analytics platform to provide staff with current data about where conflict may erupt around the world. “If you put experts in analytics in a bureau that’s on the policy side and you integrate those approaches with the domain knowledge, then it’s highly effective.” --— Santiago Stocker, director, CSO’s Office of Advanced Analytics Developed by the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, the Instability Monitoring and Analysis Platform, or IMAP, gives the department centralized, direct access to conflict data it previously had to obtain from separate sources such as the intelligence community, academia, and think tanks. “It was conceived in response to a perceived gap in the department: both a gap in having evidence-based analysis and analytics readily available throughout the department on conflict issues, and also a gap in having available quality data on conflict and crisis and situational awareness on conflict and crisis trends,” said Santiago Stocker, director of CSO’s Office of Advanced Analytics, which uses structured analytics to inform policy and programs on conflict and crisis issues. The Office of Advanced Analytics employs a broad range of methods from social science and academia, including geographic information systems mapping, survey analysis, game theory, network analysis, and statistics. Stocker said CSO has found value in being able to inform decision-making with analytic approaches. “If you put experts in analytics in a bureau that’s on the policy side and you integrate those approaches with the domain knowledge, then it’s highly effective,” Stocker said. Development of IMAP began in late 2017 and was launched in September 2019. Any of the 75,000 members of the department, regardless of where they are based, can access the platform via web browser to get information about possible electoral violence, atrocity risk, destabilizing protests, and violent extremism, among other subjects. The information is considered sensitive but is unclassified. IMAP provides data that is current within the last week so missions around the world can access real-time information about conflict trends and integrate qualitative information. The platform can also generate data reports to examine macro-level trends on, for example, state abuse of citizens, erosion of democratic governance, and the state of the economy. “The State Department historically has done a very good job of political reporting and using access inside of countries to talk to key stakeholders and government officials and civil society and report back to the department, to the U.S. government, on dynamics within those countries,” Stocker said. “The State Department historically has not done as good of a job in taking that information and integrating it with analytics and evidence, and that’s where I think the most powerful analysis is.” Having data scientists who also understand the relevant issue areas gives CSO an advantage in supporting regional bureaus, Stocker said, because it allows integration of both desk work and fieldwork. A field officer based in an embassy abroad can request a report from the IMAP team, which can then conduct an analysis on that specific topic. IMAP also allows missions to track a particular problem over time to spot larger country-specific or regional trends and use an interactive dashboard and story maps to better understand a particular situation. CSO is briefing embassies and functional and regional offices on the availability of IMAP so members of the State Department around the world are familiar with its functionality. Data used in IMAP comes from a variety of sources, including the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, a CSO-funded and publicly available dataset of event conflict incidents that is updated weekly. The bureau is also focused on funding additional data collection specifically for inclusion in IMAP so policymakers can have access to quarterly data on more subtle indicators, such as autocracy and governance. Because academic datasets often have such a long lag time, Stocker said, their usefulness in tracking a current risk of conflict or making a policy decision can be limited. CSO will be working gradually to expand the datasets’ input to IMAP to continually increase relevant information provided to people across the State Department. Stocker said he eventually wants the field of conflict analytics to look like economics, where indicators are available on a subnational level. “That availability of data and granularity of data is just not there yet in the world of conflict analysis,” Stocker said. CSO also aims to be able to extend usage of IMAP to all departments in the U.S. government within a year or two, but the platform’s technical limitations currently prevent that. “We find that a rigorous diagnosis of the problem or the threat beforehand is extremely useful in foreign policy,” Stocker said. “The more we can do on the front end to understand what are the factors driving conflict and what the risks are in a nuanced way, the better we can mobilize to better address these risks and threats later on.”