Opinion: A high birthrate alone will not lead to higher economic growth in Africa

In the global discourse, Africa’s demographic growth is often portrayed in extremes. It can drive the continent to either prosperity or ruin. The numbers are staggering. Demographically, Africa is the world’s youngest continent and is predicted to represent more than half of global population growth until 2050, adding another 1 billion people.

Political positions on Africa’s rising population can veer toward oversimplification. Whether a demographic surge is a blessing or a curse will depend on the well-being of children in African countries. A healthy and well-educated population is the most valuable asset that drives economic growth; a sick and illiterate population is a liability. If strong demographic growth is to power African economies, African leaders must focus on ensuring that children are healthy and productive.

Africa could use its rising working-age population to yield a demographic dividend. Many African leaders cite China and India as countries that used a large population to power economic development. In July, Tanzanian President John Magufuli urged women to “set [their] ovaries free” and produce more children to help boost the economy.

But such references overlook that declining fertility rates in both countries allowed the number of working-age adults to outstrip the number of dependents, both young and old — the linchpin of a demographic dividend.

Not only that, but both China and India fueled economic growth by creating jobs and increasing productivity levels. Tanzania has one of the world’s highest fertility rates, with an average of five children per woman. Yet the government's actions to restrict family planning do not help to lower a high birthrate. For these reasons, the jury is still out on whether Africa is poised to reap any gains from a surging population.

A high birthrate alone will not lead to higher economic growth on the continent. Rather, to transform their economies, African countries will need healthy children who can later turn into productive members of society. Ensuring this outcome starts at birth. The infant mortality rate in African countries is shockingly high. In fact, out of the top 20 countries globally with the highest infant mortality rates, 19 are in Africa. With an average of 53 infant deaths per 1,000 live births, sub-Saharan Africa lags behind the global average of 29.

For example, Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, accounts for 9% of the world's neonatal deaths, in which infants do not survive past their first month of life. Instead of encouraging women to have more children, many of whom will not survive, African governments should start tackling the leading causes of child mortality — such as asphyxia, prematurity, and sepsis — and improving public health infrastructure.

The World Health Organization suggests that adopting low-cost interventions such as providing sterilized birth kits and increasing access to trained birth attendants can significantly improve the survival and health of both mother and child. Healthier mothers and babies are the cornerstones of a more productive population.

After healthy babies are born, the next challenge is ensuring quality early childhood education. The benefits of early childhood education are sustained well into adulthood, with literacy as a significant determinant of a country’s economic performance. African countries have few comprehensive programs for early childhood education, or ECE, and only 26% of children under 5 in sub-Saharan Africa attend an ECE program at all. This has contributed to high levels of illiteracy in the region. Just under two-thirds of the population over age 14 is able to read and write — and although that number masks variations across the continent, it remains significantly below the global average of around 85%.

The good news is there are tried and tested interventions that African governments can explore to tackle this deficit. Returns on high-quality preschool programs range from 7% to as high as 16% annually for vulnerable populations. ECE programs that boost literacy rates and increase future earnings are critical to a productive African workforce.

The future of African countries is and will remain defined by its children. While birthrates in 91 out of 195 countries and territories are below replacement levels, population growth will likely continue to outstrip economic prospects. To ensure that children grow into productive adults, investments in health and early childhood education must be an urgent priority for African societies. Redirecting our attention to these efforts will put Africa on a path toward prosperity.