Opinion: It is not too early to plan for Ukraine’s reconstruction

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine continues to shock the global conscience, with seemingly unending images of indiscriminate violence against civilians broadcast daily. Without question, the most pressing tasks for the global community are supporting Ukrainians’ response and aiding people who are displaced. Recognizing the inability to predict when this war will end, we must begin planning for the comprehensive work that will be essential after the fighting stops. We cannot have a narrow vision of what that work will entail. Planning for recovery and reconstruction should start now and must include a focus on Ukraine’s democratic future. Nothing about war is predictable other than the destruction that it leaves in its wake. In more than two decades of working for the federal government, including coordinating large-scale reconstruction efforts, I know early recovery planning is critical, even in the midst of uncertainty. As former United States President Dwight D. Eisenhower famously noted: “Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” We can jump-start Ukraine’s gross domestic product growth and reduce dependence on Russia by supporting the private sector, reinvigorating trade, and reconnecting supply chains. --— The scope and details of any globally supported reconstruction plan must be developed and led by Ukrainians so that their vision, capabilities, and desires are fully represented, but the broad areas of focus are nonetheless clear. The most visible and urgent post-conflict challenges to be addressed outside of the realm of defense will be to provide resettlement assistance to refugees and those who have been internally displaced and to rebuild Ukraine’s devastated physical infrastructure. But this is not all we must plan for. Supporting Ukrainians to realize their legitimate desire to live in a democratic society and attending to the long-term psychological recovery from war will require much more than addressing these urgent and visible needs. As this July 2021 Atlantic Council report notes, “[Ukraine] has emerged from the authoritarian past and made the historic transition to democracy.” For Ukraine to stay firmly on this path, it is critical that the global community support Ukrainian institutions of government to reestablish public services in health, education, water and sanitation, energy, and beyond to continue to show that democracy delivers. Some parts of reestablishing service provision will overlap with infrastructure reconstruction, but other aspects involve addressing public sector services. The provision of efficient, responsive, and accountable public services that citizens can see and feel strengthens the social contract and commitment to democratic governance. Even now, Ukraine’s education system is offering remote education services for children — a heroic example of the vital role that public services play now and will continue to play during the recovery. Next, the global community will need to support Ukraine’s continued integration into the European and global economies. We can jump-start Ukraine’s gross domestic product growth and reduce dependence on Russia by supporting the private sector, reinvigorating trade, and reconnecting supply chains. Integration into regional energy markets is an especially vital component of supporting Ukraine’s economic independence. International assistance can help Ukrainian financial institutions get back up and running and serve as a catalyst for local business. With support through institutions such as the U.S. Agency for International Development and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, for which I am honored to serve on the advisory council, local financial institutions can provide resources to rebuild and expand the middle class, helping establish an inclusive rather than oligarchic economy that benefits a broad base of Ukrainians. Lastly, robust support for civil society institutions is vital. Often at great personal risk, these organizations have played the principal role over the past three decades in pushing for Ukraine to be an open, inclusive society and giving voice to the aspirations of Ukrainians. While this area of support is often considered soft and secondary, it is a critical piece in reconstructing the infrastructure of a vibrant and representative society. It includes not only supporting civil society organizations that work in the overtly political space, but also those working to advance the interest of all citizens in domains such as health and education. USAID has been a leader in this space and will need resources to expand its work in the future. Ukrainians have inspired the world with a courageous demonstration that strength of will and unwavering determination to defend democracy are key ingredients in standing up to an invasion force. The global community’s support for them will need to be long-term, comprehensive, and well-planned. We cannot know when the war will end, but we do know that support for genuine, robust democracy in Ukraine must kick into high gear once the fighting stops. It is vital to plan now so we’re ready to heed that call when that time comes.