Opinion: The interplay between conflict and climate change needs a rethink

The recent news that Somalia was elected to become a nonpermanent member of the United Nations Security Council has generated headlines. As one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, Somalia’s accession offers an important opportunity for the country to bring a more hopeful narrative on climate and security.

Somalia is viewed as a tentative but emerging success story in the increasingly fragile Horn of Africa. But at a time when the links between climate change and conflict are gaining increasing attention,  it will need to combat an unhelpful — and increasingly commonplace — narrative about the relationship between the two things.

In recent years, we have seen the rise of a popular story: one in which climate change is increasing the probability of violent conflict and insecurity in some of the world’s poorest regions. In this narrative, climate impacts undermine social stability, lead to mass migration, and drive recruitment to armed groups.