“UN predicts 700 million displaced in Africa by 2030 due to water scarcity” — reads a headline from October 2022. The story behind the number tells a concerning story about the aid sector’s use of big numbers and misleading statistics to advance their agendas. In fact, the number has nothing to do with water scarcity, Africa, or a timeline of 2030.
The October headline was based on a recently released report by the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization, but it had also been used over several years, including by the U.N. secretary general, several other U.N. agencies, in particular the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification and UNICEF, and the World Bank and numerous NGOs.
The number gained momentum in 2022 as it was included in a draft public version of the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, despite the fact that it was clearly stated that the draft should not be cited or quoted.
About the author
Alexander Kjærum
Alexander Kjærum is a global advisor, senior analyst with the Danish Refugee Council. He is leading the work on enhancing the use of data and analysis for strategic planning, programming, and advocacy. He is also the lead on use of predictive analytics and author on the flagship Global Displacement Forecast report.
