This week, the United Nations' top humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths said that famine is “at the door” in Somalia.
Conditions are expected to reach famine thresholds in three areas of the southern Bay region in the “absence of urgent, multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance,” according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network and Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit-Somalia.
Four rainy seasons have failed in the Horn of Africa, pummeling the country into emergency levels of food insecurity. At least 330,000 children need treatment for the deadliest form of malnutrition.
But Somalia’s Minister of State for Environment and Climate Change Adam Aw Hirsi told Devex the government is wary of a “declaration of a blanket famine” when the areas with the most elevated levels of food insecurity are concentrated in hotspots. He added that “there is an absolute famine in some chunks of the country,” but also said some parts of the country are faring better than neighboring countries. A blanket famine declaration could “mislead responders and donors” as well as “chase away potential investors” in other areas of the country, he said.
Somalia is the second most climate-vulnerable country in the world. Climate change is accelerating the frequency and severity of extreme weather, including droughts. The government is working to attract more long-term, sustainable financing for resilience programming that addresses this perennial problem, as opposed to most of it focusing on humanitarian disasters.
Aw Hirsi said a famine declaration could “throw a wrench in the ongoing resilience programs and frustrate development partners” but if there “is ever a blanket or massive famine” the country would be the first to declare.
“We can not afford one preventable death,” he said.
But during the last famine in Somalia in 2011, half of the deaths occurred before a declaration.
Humanitarian groups have responded to Griffith’s statement saying a famine declaration should not be a prerequisite to increase funding. The declaration is not accompanied by binding obligations from the international community but used as a siren to draw attention.
“By the time famine is declared, people are already dying of hunger. At the same time, in most pre-famine situations, warning signs are largely ignored or overlooked,” Ahmed Khalif, Somalia country director for Action Against Hunger, told Devex.
“Often funds for lifesaving response lags months behind the needs, so in a way, famine declarations are needed to galvanize additional resources,” he said.
Christopher Barrett, an agricultural and development economist at Cornell University, agreed that the attention around the discussion around the possibility of a declaration is testament to the value the process plays.
“It’s less important whether or not this ultimately gets declared a famine than whether more active and effective efforts take place very soon to help reduce unnecessary human suffering,” he said.
A famine declaration is part technical, but also political. The U.N. can’t unilaterally declare a famine without the Somali government on board, Aw Hirsi told Devex.
The international community ranks food insecurity in five phases through the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC, with famine as the final stage. It’s the primary tool the international community uses to analyze data on whether a famine is happening.
A specific set of technical indicators must be met before a famine can authoritatively be declared. That includes at least 20% of households having extreme food insecurity, at least 30% of children experiencing acute malnutrition, and at least two people out of every 10,000 dying daily from starvation — or by disease fueled by the weakening of the body through malnutrition. For children, that figure is four.
Large swaths of Somalia are already in emergency phases of food insecurity, the phase just before famine, and famine warnings are projected for specific areas of the country.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network and Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit-Somalia said this week that “acute malnutrition among children and the rate of hunger-related deaths have not yet met the IPC’s technical definition of Famine.” But these areas are expected to meet famine thresholds between October and December 2022.
“We are running against time, of course, and October is tomorrow,” Griffiths said during a press briefing on Monday.
Even when countries are on the brink of famine — they already face catastrophic levels of hunger. The international nonprofit ACTED published a briefing this week that said the situation is nearly at the threshold. Among people who are displaced in Baidoa, the acute malnutrition rate is 28.6%, whereas the threshold is 30%, and among agro-pastoralists in Baidoa and Burhakaba, it is 24.9%. Among this same group, the crude death rate is 1.69 deaths out of every 10,000 each day, and the threshold is two. The children under 5 rate is 3.72 deaths, compared to the threshold of four.
David Miliband, president and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, wrote in a press release that his teams “see how the situation is worsening faster than data can show.”
And there are conflicting figures. Government officials in South West state provided Devex with a briefing in late August that said the acute malnutrition threshold for famine had been surpassed.
An aid worker, who chose to remain anonymous given the sensitivities, told Devex it’s likely there is a lack of agreement on the data, as well as uncertainty over whether thresholds have been met. The aid worker added it’s especially hard to access al-Shabab-held areas where the indicators may have already exceeded famine thresholds.
The language has also changed from “famine forecasted” into “famine projected,” and “risk of famine” has moved to “famine likely.”
“These tiny adjustments are barely perceptible but indicate that the humanitarian community is trying to communicate that the edge of famine is the same as famine. By the time 1 in 4 people are malnourished, the human impact is the same as 1 in 3, albeit the latter is required to officially call it famine,” the aid worker said.
In its briefing, ACTED called for the reallocation of funds to priority areas, saying “there are significant resources already in play in Somalia.”
"This will likely mean NGOs ceding comfortable programming in urban and peri-urban areas to push further into harder to reach locations, embracing the capacities of local organizations," the organization wrote.