The debate over meat at COP 28, explained

At the United Nations climate conference, or COP 28, meat is on the agenda — though not necessarily on the menu. More than 14% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from meat and dairy, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, or FAO. Livestock farming is a major source of methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide. It also contributes to deforestation and biodiversity loss as land is cleared for animals to graze. To keep global warming below the target of 1.5 degrees Celsius laid out in the 2015 Paris Agreement, experts are calling for industry reforms as well as sharp changes in people’s diets to reduce the amount of meat and dairy they are eating. It’s part of a wider conversation around promoting plant-based diets and “protein diversification” in order to improve food security and cut agrifood emissions. FAO is expected to call on the highest income countries to curb their meat intake in a road map to 1.5 degrees Celsius and end world hunger in line with the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals. It will be released Sunday, during COP 28’s thematic day on food, agriculture, and water. The agency is limiting its call to wealthier countries because meat production and consumption are hugely unequal. In the United States and Australia, the average person ate more than 120 kilograms of meat in 2020, while in Uganda the rate was 9.24 kg and in India it was 4.54 kg — the lowest in the world. The EAT-Lancet Commission recommends people consume no more than 15.7 kg per year. In fact, many communities in the global south would actually benefit from increased consumption to address protein and micronutrient deficiencies, Oliver Camp, a senior associate at the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition, explained during a discussion at the Food4Climate pavilion at COP 28 last week. “There are some countries that need to consume more protein,” ProVeg International’s Joanna Trewern said at the same event. “The first thing we need to focus on is more equitable distribution of food and nutrients.” The question now hanging over COP 28 — and beyond — is how to strike this equitable balance, while still lowering global production and consumption of environmentally harmful proteins. Why the focus on meat and dairy this year? Food systems are a major driver of climate change. Researchers estimate that the process of getting food from farm to fork accounts for about a third of total greenhouse gas emissions. While there is “a low-carbon transition happening already in the energy and transport systems,” which are also major emitters, no similar transition is underway in the food sector, according to Nusa Urbancic, CEO of Changing Markets Foundation, which works with NGOs to mount campaigns that shift market share away from unsustainable products and toward greener solutions. The spotlight has turned to meat, in particular, because raising livestock accounts for nearly 60% of all food systems emissions. Plant-based foods, in contrast, produce only 29% of the overall total. There is a recognition that this will have to change — and that the change must happen ahead of anticipated population growth that will only increase the demand for meat and dairy. “We need to reduce our methane emissions by 30% by 2030, and we’ll need to reduce it by half or more in the longer term,” Mark Howden, director of the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions at the Australian National University, told Devex. At the same time, there is an understanding that cutting meat production and consumption cannot come at the expense of the global south. Those are often the same communities that are already bearing the brunt of the effects of climate change, despite being least responsible for the emissions — from agrifood systems or otherwise — that are causing it. What do many food systems and climate experts want to see happen? The simple answer is that they want wealthier consumers to shift to more plant-based diets. But that is easier said than done. It will require change across every step of the agrifood system, beginning with how farmers are subsidized all the way to what food is available to consumers and how it is marketed. “We need to reform those subsidies so they can support a farmer doing better things,” Urbancic said. “Away from climate-intensive ways of producing food and shifting toward more plant-based systems is crucial.” In the global south, where many of those food systems are underdeveloped, there is actually an opportunity to leapfrog some of the more environmentally harmful practices in North America and Europe and get more sustainable systems in place now. The goal would not be to end all livestock-based industries, but to think about a nutritious and sustainable blend of food options. There are also opportunities for innovation, Howden said, including in vaccines and breeding programs that might produce climate-friendlier livestock. “A global program which researches options which can reduce methane emissions from animals in practical and sustainable ways is important,” he said. What’s the Global Methane Pledge got to do with all of this? Methane is a key contributor to global warming. Though it’s a short-lived greenhouse gas emission, it is 80 times more harmful than CO2 over 20 years. And the food sector is a key methane contributor — particularly cattle. At COP 26 in Glasgow, the European Union and the United States launched an initiative to voluntarily take action to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. More than 150 countries are participating, including many low- and middle-income countries. At COP 28 on Monday, officials announced that an additional $1 billion in grant funding for methane action has materialized over the past year, alongside new tools to measure and respond to methane emissions. However, activists warn that the pledge is likely to fall short as a result of inadequate funding and an inadequate governance framework. What does the meat industry have to say about all of this? Quite a lot, unsurprisingly. Ahead of COP 28, there were reports that the meat and dairy industry and their affiliated lobbying groups were preparing a major campaign with the goal of convincing policymakers that their agricultural methods are conducive to environmentally sustainable food systems. And they have been present at many food systems transformation events. A dairy industry representative suggested at one discussion that the science around methane is incorrect and that it might not be as damaging as currently suspected. Howden called the arguments “spurious. It takes the eye off the ball from doing something positive and constructive.” Will COP 28 be a turning point? Much will depend on FAO’s roadmap and how many players are willing to commit themselves to meeting the agency’s plan — which is voluntary and nonbinding. Though the plan has not yet been released, it is already raising concerns among experts such as Urbanacic over potentially being misaligned with goals and targets on nature that countries agreed to during the 2022 U.N. Biodiversity Conference and for the overall opaque process that surrounded its creation. FAO has previously been accused by its staff members of censoring and watering down reports on methane emissions under lobbyist pressure. In addition to calling on higher-income countries to reduce their meat consumption, the new roadmap is expected to advise global south countries to improve their livestock farming. But Howden said it will be important for those countries to set their own path. “We need to some extent not put a developed world lens on developing world transitions in terms of livestock, in particular,” he said. Update, Dec. 6, 2023: This story has been updated to reflect that many people in the global south would benefit from increased micronutrients.