As the United States retreats — at the behest of U.S. President Donald Trump and his “America First” agenda — from its role as the world’s largest foreign aid donor, organizations and governments are considering options to plug the gap. Experts tell Devex that China could take on a significant portion of the mantle the U.S. has largely dropped — but worry that its increased involvement could jeopardize efforts to improve human rights and democracy.
“It's not theoretical. We know it's happening,” said Melissa Conley Tyler, executive director of the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue. Within days of the U.S. State Department’s announcement of a 90-day funding freeze and assessment of all programs, she was told of instances in the Pacific where China had offered to replace lost USAID funding. The Cambodian government also quickly turned to China for a grant to continue its work in demining its land. Development assistance is seen as a form of soft power and a way to build relationships with other countries, said Conley Tyler — and somebody has to step in “if we don't want a complete collapse of the sector.”
China already ranks as the sixth biggest development donor, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s 2019 data. In 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged $50 billion over three years to develop systems and employment opportunities in Africa. The government is already the second largest bilateral donor to countries in the Pacific region, focusing mainly on infrastructure such as roads, and is increasingly pivoting its development contributions back to its doorstep in Southeast Asia following the COVID-19 pandemic.