For many at the United Nations, this new year brings the promise of challenges, risks, and opportunities. It also sets the stage for Donald Trump 2.0, an “America First” president who is expected to weaken key U.N.-backed initiatives, from climate change and development assistance to reform of the international financial system and sexual reproductive rights.
The new presidency will almost certainly be disruptive, imposing steep cuts in foreign assistance, and setting the stage for confrontations over Israel. You can fairly expect the incoming administration to renew U.S. sanctions on prosecutors and judges with the International Criminal Court, in retaliation for issuing arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for crimes against humanity and war crimes, including the use of starvation as a weapon of war. The court also issued an arrest warrant for Hamas commander Mohammed Deif, but he was killed by Israel, as was Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
But whether the new U.S. president will seek to sabotage the world’s premier diplomatic institutions or actively strive to bend it to his will is anybody’s guess. “Anyone who tells you that they know what will happen at the UN in 2025 is a fool or a liar,” Richard Gowan, a U.N. expert at the International Crisis Group, told Devex by email. “It is a safe bet to say that Trump will shake up multilateral diplomacy, but the resulting fall-out is hard to predict confidently.”