UN Pact for the Future draft lacks ambition on climate, states warn

Countries are narrowing down the “Pact for the Future,” an all-encompassing international consensus document on how we deliver a better present and safeguard the future — but some United Nations member states and civil society want to see more prominence given to climate change. On Sept. 22-23, world leaders will meet in New York for the Summit of the Future, which will culminate in the adoption of the Pact for the Future. But as negotiators are approaching the finish line, member states most affected by climate change and civil society organizations are pushing for stronger, climate-specific language to be included in the draft. If the current language of the text focuses on already existing institutions and mechanisms to deal with the issue, core tensions currently impacting negotiations, especially on reforming international financial institutions, could impact the future of climate finance as well, diplomats involved in negotiations told Devex. If the current climate-related language is underwhelming for many, it remains unclear how ambitious the text can be — and how it will be implemented. “Some people are reluctant because they don't think that this is going to be implemented. … But the power lies in the political will of member states and the ownership of civil society as well.” --— María Fernanda Espinosa, president of the 73rd U.N. General Assembly “No one expects that the Pact itself is going to carve out a new international financial architecture or international climate financial architecture” a negotiator told Devex on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of negotiations, “but it’s more about signaling where it should go.” A broad, all-encompassing text In New York, there has been a general lack of enthusiasm at the United Nations for months when it comes to the Pact of the Future. “I think that a lot of member states have really, really struggled to get a grip on what the summit can achieve, and what their priorities should be,” Richard Gowan, U.N. expert at the International Crisis Group, told Devex in a phone interview. In 2021, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres published Our Common Agenda, his vision for the future of global cooperation, and called for a summit to be organized on the subject matter — which will take place right before the U.N. General Assembly high-level debate. After months of negotiations, delegates show both a lack of enthusiasm but also a sense of urgency. “I just think there's an obvious discrepancy between the issues that Guterres wanted to press back in 2021 like pandemics, technology, and global threats, including climate change and what's actually been dominating the U.N. agenda ever since, which is wars,” Gowan added. As Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia's deputy permanent representative to the U.N., told Devex: “What’s the point of talking about the future when the world is on the brink of collapse?” Instead, we should be trying to “solve the problems of today and their root causes,” he added. Bob Rae, Canada’s ambassador to the U.N. and the current president of the Economic and Social Council, is more optimistic about the draft and its potential outcome. “I think that we need to look at the steady progress that we have made if you take climate change, for example, we are still in the middle of a very real crisis, but we also have treaties,” Rae said at a press conference in July. “But we always have to be looking at the practical steps that we can take to actually go one step further, two steps further, to get to where we need to get to.” In July, a third draft of the pact came out. Most negotiators agree the third version is not the final one and more work is needed, but delegates are getting closer and closer to a final text. Namibia and Germany have co-facilitated the pact’s negotiations. On climate, the current text mostly reiterates the role of existing climate change architecture and the importance of enhancing ambitions to address climate change, including when it comes to renewing nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, and reducing emissions. “I think that obviously you cannot have a successful future without addressing climate,” Koen Doens, the EU director-general for international partnerships, told Devex during a visit to New York, “but I think on climate and likewise on biodiversity, the real push comes from the COPs [Conference of the Parties] and that's where the pledge is on.” If, so far, the text reveals little new element on climate, some delegates have initiated a final push for more ambitious climate languages and outcomes. A tense climate Negotiations dynamics around the Pact for the Future reflect tensions on other topics as well, and the current state of the world, and for many, it has become harder and harder to agree on simple language. Negotiators told Devex there are three topics that currently impact the process of agreeing on language for the pact the most: language around disarmament — especially the use of nuclear weapons — Security Council reform, and financing — including reforming international financial institutions. “The most sensitive issue, which is all really hanging on, is reforms to international financing and the international financial architecture,” Crisis Group’s Gowan said. “That is what the G77 countries are really seized of.” On financing, negotiators talk of the usual tensions between low- and middle-income countries’ right to development and their commitment to reducing emissions, as well as big polluters’ responsibilities toward financing climate change initiatives. On reforming financial institutions, countries from the global south are allegedly pushing for reforms to be brought to New York, where the U.N. is based, rather than in Washington, D.C., where the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are based, as many of them see them as Western institutions that do not have those nations’ best intentions. A group of “like-minded countries” headed by Pakistan, leads the push. “When you look at debtor countries, they have a strong feeling that there are structures and hierarchies in place in Washington, which sometimes make their situation more difficult,” Canada’s Rae said. “Here, I think we are in the house of the people in New York. Here we can give people an opportunity to discuss and think through how they can present their cases and how we can lead to some constructive reforms.” The draft also currently includes an action pushing to “accelerate the reform of the international financial architecture so that it can meet the challenge of climate change,” adding that it must drive financing toward both climate action and sustainable development. While climate change is an integral part of the Pact for the Future, many believe ambitions are too low and the language is even less strong than what was agreed on at the COP 28 climate summit, something Western delegations want to address in upcoming rounds of negotiations and civil society organizations are hoping for as well. “In a 20-page document that's meant to tackle all of the challenges of the world, in the present and into the future, we can’t expect a heavy document with a lot of ambition but, it does feel like kind of passing the buck a little bit,” Rebecca Shoot, executive director of NGO Citizens for Global Solutions, told Devex in June about the second draft of the document. The third draft is 30 pages long. Countries are also currently considering adding language about phasing out fossil fuels — following Guterres’ strong appeal to do so last year. The current draft does not mention fossil fuels at all. Small islands developing states, some of which are already feeling the impact of climate change, are allegedly pushing for stronger climate language in the pact. As one delegate — who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the ongoing negotiations — put it, the question that remains is: “Will the Pact … when it comes to climate, recommit to the document we’re working with right now, [with its] underlying sense of urgency and giving high expectations for Baku, or will the Pact pick up some specific issue of conversation on climate and give those elements particular visibility?” For many, the language of the pact matters only if there are concrete ways of implementing it. María Fernanda Espinosa, president of the 73rd U.N. General Assembly and a former foreign minister of Ecuador, monitored the negotiations as a member of civil society and believes in the value of the process. “I think it's worth acknowledging that some people are reluctant because they don't think that this is going to be implemented,” she said, “But the power lies in the political will of member states and the ownership of civil society as well. So any document, even the best document on planet Earth, the Sustainable Development Goals, can be a piece of paper, or it can be an agent for change.” Still, the optimism about what the summit can achieve remains for many, cautious. “I think the reality is that the number of countries that feel a strong affinity for this process is quite limited, and quite a lot of countries are viewing it relatively suspiciously,” Gowan said. “There is support from a group of small states, led by Singapore, that have made it clear that they actually want to see a decent document in September … simply to show that the U.N. can agree on things, and to show that the U.N. is not just drifting while Ukraine and Gaza burn.”