Under Azerbaijan's repression, what's civil society's role at COP 29?

It’s four months out until the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP 29, is hosted in Azerbaijan. This is the third year in a row that the world’s largest climate change convening is hosted by an authoritarian regime. In February, a group of Azerbaijani organizations created the Climate of Justice Initiative. In outlining their vision, they criticized the rise of greenhouse gas emissions and inequitable distribution of domestic water resources. They lamented corruption and repression of civil society — including the arrest of politicians, journalists, and social activists on fabricated charges. They wrote that they see COP 29 as an “opportunity to promote civil liberties, public participation, and environmental justice in Azerbaijan.” But in April, Anar Mammadli, one of the initiative’s co-founders, was arrested on what Amnesty International described as trumped up charges of smuggling. He’s now one of the estimated nearly 300 Azerbaijani political prisoners and journalists in detention. Gubad Ibadoghlu is another example. He’s a renowned economist, anti-corruption activist, and critic of the fossil fuel industry. He’s been detained for the past year — currently under house arrest where he’s been denied urgent medical treatment. Amnesty said they’ve “documented the widespread abuse by the Azerbaijani authorities of the criminal justice system to crack down on human rights including the right to freedom of expression, often detaining and falsely charging their critics with economic crimes.” “The Azerbaijani authorities must immediately cease their campaign of intimidation against civil society, and stop cynically detaining their critics ahead of the COP 29 meeting in Baku in November,” wrote Natalia Nozadze, Amnesty International’s South Caucasus researcher, in a press release. It’s hard to get an uncensored perspective from inside the country, which raises concerns about whether there can be meaningful participation of civil society at COP 29 — at a moment when the world must have tough conversations about the climate crisis. A closed space Azerbaijan has been a fossil fuel producer since the 1990s. This extraction accounts for nearly half of gross domestic product and over 92% of export revenue in 2022. “Having oil and gas deposits is not our fault. It’s a gift from God,” said President Ilham Aliyev at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in April. Last year’s host, the United Arab Emirates, is also a petro-state, and Egypt, the year prior, is a leading fossil fuel producer on the African continent. Kate Watters, executive director of Crude Accountability, told Devex she questions the choice of consecutive host countries with economies heavily dependent on fossil fuels and governments that repress freedom of speech. “Is this a serious endeavor? Is the United Nations really serious about its commitment to climate justice?” she asked. Her organization aims to protect the environmental and human rights of people in the Caspian and Black Sea regions and areas of Eurasia impacted by fossil fuel development. In the lead-up to COP 29, as Azerbaijan is in the spotlight, the government has doubled down on suppression of critical voices, Watters said. “You would think that they would be on their best behavior,” Watters said. “I don't know how this can seem to be an ideal environment for the types of conversations that really need to be held.” The leading concern is domestic civil society. For example, last June, police violently broke up a protest, with some spraying chemical irritants in the faces of older women, against the planned expansion of a gold mine, which the community says seeps toxins into water. “There's going to be no independent voices from Azerbaijan able to attend COP 29 because people who are in exile are too afraid to go back because they know they face arrest. And those in the country are either in prison, or they're too afraid to speak out, because they think they'll face retaliation for doing so,” said Ann Harrison, Amnesty International’s climate policy adviser. Even if things are calm during the meetings, there’s concern Azerbaijanis who speak out could face arrest after the international community leaves, Watters said, adding that there are also risks for activists from across Central Asia and the Caucuses. “This is not a nice neighborhood for a lot of civil society,” she said. “The idea that they would go to Azerbaijan, the authoritarian neighbor, and speak freely is very unlikely.” Relegated to the Blue Zone No COP meeting has been without problems, Harrison said. For example, there was heavy-handed policing of protests in Glasgow during COP 26. But there was also a large climate march through the city center — which hasn’t happened at the subsequent COPs in Egypt and the UAE. It’s doubtful this will happen in Azerbaijan, she said, given laws and restrictions. When a COP’s host doesn’t allow public protests, there’s dependency on those happening in the formal negotiation space known as the “Blue Zone” — but not everybody has access. And there are many restrictions around these protests, Harrison said. For example, country names can’t be mentioned and names of political prisoners can’t be printed below a person’s picture. These protests must be negotiated in advance with the United Nations and security teams — with designated areas agreed upon. “Civil society can't do what it should be doing, which is calling things out, holding governments to account, really putting pressure on getting the climate action we need,” Harrison said. She said host country agreements aren’t easily accessible either — it was time-consuming and convoluted for her to access the UAE host agreement. Her organization recently published it. She said there are good parts of the agreement, but also concerns around hazy protections for those speaking out. While there’s immunity for those within the Blue Zone, it also says participants have a duty to respect host country laws and not undermine internal affairs. It's unclear if someone could face reprisals when they leave the Blue Zone, she said. There’s also a clause that host countries can deny visas to people who might be a national security threat. “That's fairly legitimate, but it's about making sure that's not abused to prevent people who should be there,” she said. Avoiding ‘corporate capture’ The COP negotiations are intended to convene the world to push forward on commitments in the Paris Agreement. But the fossil fuel industry comes in full force. Last year, there was a record 2,456 fossil fuel lobbyists granted access to negotiations. The meaningful participation of civil society can work to balance out the discussion. Ahead of last year’s COP in Dubai, CONCORD Sweden’s working group for Environmental and Climate Justice called for efforts to “avoid corporate capture” of these negotiations including by limiting fossil fuel lobbyists and company accreditations in favor of civil society participation, ensuring civil society have access to spaces where corporate actors are allowed and full transparency of sponsorships at the event. “It is through civil society’s participation that the stories of those impacted by climate change and human rights abuses can be heard on an international stage, and ultimately subsequently influence the negotiations,” wrote Swedwatch, a nonprofit research organization. Government preparations Azerbaijan's COP 29 organizing team have said they’re committed to ensuring civil society participation. There are five civil society organizations present on the 55-person committee, four of which are women-led nongovernmental organizations. “Civil society plays a crucial role in making the COP29 process more inclusive and participatory, while also contributing to more effective and equitable decision-making,” Parvana Valiyeva, an NGO representative on the committee, told Devex. She’s a board member of the Azerbaijan National NGO Forum, which includes around 500 domestic NGOs. Azerbaijan's Agency for State Support to Non-Governmental Organizations has organized roundtable discussions and scientific seminars for civil society experts and environmentalists on climate change in the lead-up to COP 29, she said. The agency has hosted three training sessions for over 200 local and international NGOs to explain UNFCCC accreditation processes and other ways NGOs can contribute to the event. They also developed a handbook for domestic NGOs in the local language to better understand the COP processes. She said the COP 29 organizing committee also forged a partnership with Kenyan organizations during the U.N. Civil Society Conference in Nairobi in May, where three Azerbaijani NGOs met with Kenyan NGOs to discuss ways to ensure participation of African civil society at COP. A pre-COP event for civil society is also expected, she said, which will provide an opportunity for civil society organizations globally to interact with one another ahead of COP 29.