US out on a limb in the Northern Triangle?

The specifics of a proposed $1 billion assistance plan to Central America remain in limbo as the U.S. Congress tries to determine the level of political will from the presidents of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador — the countries the plan is meant to support. Concern over the buy-in from the Central American leaders comes as Congress is assessing to what extent it will approve the plan, which in its current form would deliver a dramatic increase in aid to counteract underlying conditions that led to 2014’s unaccompanied minor crisis at the U.S. border. The plan would also recognize the political will originally shown by the presidents of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador in the ambitious “Alliance for Prosperity in the Northern Triangle” proposal put forward in November. The plan outlined ways to strengthen economic productivity and security in the three countries. But that proposal, “which unfortunately has yet to materialize into something real” had little if any serious intent, according to Manuel Orozco, senior fellow on migration and development at the Inter-American Dialogue, who often consults in Central America. “The leaders washed their hands on the whole issue of the crisis in Central America and mandated the [Inter-American Development Bank] to present a strategy called the ‘Alliance for Prosperity’; and in the end, they have done very little, or nothing,” Orozco said. Now, it’s the lack of commitment on certain issues across the three countries that Congress is grappling with, according to Eric Olson, associate director of the Latin America program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars who is closely involved with the issue. The administration wants to set specific benchmarks, indicators or metrics to give an idea of whether the leaders are committed or not. “Political will can prove very difficult to measure,” Olson said. “At some level, it’s a subjective question unless there’s benchmarks.” The administration is “struggling to define” those benchmarks, he said, but there are a few ideas in the works. In Guatemala, for example, the U.S. wants to see the renewal of the mandate for the United Nations anti-impunity mechanism — a clear cut indicator, Olson said. Benchmarks in the other two countries are less clear, but Olson voiced the ideas of those working closely with the matter in his address to Congress last week. For El Salvador, U.S. representatives want demonstrated reformation of the justice and prison systems, a long-promised reform that has received U.S. support but has been slow to transpire. And in Honduras, evidence of reforms in the civilian national police and the public prosecutor’s office would serve as indicators. Congress is not going to move forward without conditions attached, Olson said. But at the same time, the State Department is reluctant to impose strict aid conditionality and wants to work in the spirit of partnership, “not drag the countries around by their toes.” “But the situation is such that we can’t mess around any longer,” he told Devex. “This is a lot of money and the leaders expect the U.S. will request some things along with the aid.” The Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere declined request for comment on consideration of the aid plan, but debate on how to measure the political will and how much money should go to which issues is expected to become more pointed as Congress takes a closer look. Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Roberta Jacobson last week asked Congress to approve the proposal. In the same hearing, U.S. Rep. Kay Granger said that for lasting change to occur, the U.S. needs a “solid commitment from partner countries themselves.” “Just as I believe the United States should assist these countries, so too should we hold the governments accountable for following through on their commitments,” she stated. Stay tuned to Devex for more news and analysis of U.S. aid, and subscribe to The Development Newswire to receive the latest from the world’s leading donors and decision-makers — emailed to you FREE every business day.