USAID business forecast: Q1 2023

On Dec. 7 the U.S. Agency for International Development will hold its first business forecast call for the fiscal year 2023. The call aims to provide an overview of the agency’s development priorities in the coming months. Alongside the call, USAID published data on future opportunities on its business forecast portal in November 2022. Devex analyzed the data to identify where USAID plans to spend its money. All the information is provisional and may change at any time at the agency’s discretion. Devex will release an update after the business forecast call. Which opportunities are in and out? Overall, the first business forecast of the fiscal year included 258 opportunities, worth $33.7 billion — this is $6.2 billion, or 22.7%, more than the same quarter in the fiscal year 2022. Of this, 165 opportunities, worth $29.4 billion, were also part of the previous forecast. A total of 64 opportunities, worth $3.5 billion, have been delisted. The biggest among these is the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance Program Cycle IDIQ, worth $750 million. The program aims to provide BHA and implementing partners with products, services, and support needed for planning, design, monitoring, management, learning, and evaluation. A sources sought notice was released on Sam.gov on July 28, 2022, which is USAID's way of determining the number of organizations that might be interested in bidding whenever the actual solicitation is released. The average contract size of the delisted opportunities is $54.8 million. USAID says it removes opportunities from the forecast for three reasons: an award has already been made; the agency has decided to stop planning or implementing any activities; or funding is no longer available. On the other hand, 93 new opportunities, worth $4.3 billion, were added in this quarter. The largest is an administration-related procurement: up to $500 million for the operation, maintenance, design, modernization, and enhancement of USAID’s business services, IT systems, and infrastructure. Other large new opportunities include: • Up to $300 million for HIV and TB epidemic control in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. • Up to $300 million to support locally led solutions to communities at greatest risk of climate-related disasters. • Up to $300 million for TB technical assistance to ministries of health and other local government entities. • Up to $300 million for the Young African Leaders Initiative, which is USAID’s education program investing in Africa’s next generation of leaders. What’s new about NextGen? The 10-year global health program, which funds the procurement and distribution of health commodities in partner countries, remains the biggest, at $13.6 billion. There are no changes recorded among four contracts, while for the other four, the solicitation and award dates have been pushed back further. The PSA HIV and Integrated PSA are still valued at over $3 billion each. This differs from all the other forecast opportunities, which are normally listed between a definite minimum and maximum value. During the first quarter of 2022, the two contracts were valued at $5 billion and $4.1 billion, respectively. Here are all the NextGen contracts with their respective allocations and anticipated solicitation and award dates: • Over $3 billion for the PSA HIV. The anticipated solicitation date has been moved from Oct. 31, 2022, to Jan. 31, 2023; while the anticipated award date has been moved from May 31, 2023, to Sept. 29, 2023. • Over $3 billion for the Integrated PSA. The anticipated award date is still March 28, 2023. A solicitation was released on March 20, 2022. • Up to $2.8 billion for PSA Diagnostics. The anticipated solicitation date has been moved from Oct. 31, 2022, to Jan. 31, 2023; while the anticipated award date has been moved from May 31, 2023, to Sept. 29, 2023. • Up to $2.5 billion for the CompTA. The anticipated award date has been moved from Nov. 30, 2022, to Jan. 31, 2023. A solicitation was released on Oct. 28, 2021. • Up to $1.5 billion for In-country Logistics. The anticipated award date is still March 31, 2023. The solicitation was released on June 30, 2022. • Up to $500 million for the TA Marketplace. The anticipated solicitation date is still Dec. 31, 2022, while the anticipated award date is still Sept. 30, 2023. • Up to $300 million for the Qualifying Testing Issuing Award. The anticipated award date is still March 22, 2023. A solicitation was released on Nov. 9, 2022. • Up to $50 million for strategic risk management. The anticipated solicitation date is still Jan. 18, 2023; while the anticipated award date is still Dec. 31, 2023. What are USAID’s development priorities? Global health still accounts for the majority of forecast contracts, with $17.5 billion. Of this, 78% is allocated to NextGen. Outside of NextGen, the three large opportunities we mentioned in the previous analysis remain the biggest this quarter. These are: • Up to $1 billion to support the prevention of malaria through the vector control program. • Up to $300 million for the REACH Malaria program. • Up to $300 million to improve health systems in Uganda. Among new opportunities, the biggest are: • Up to $100 million to support access to family planning and reproductive health information, products, and services. • Up to $100 million to support the local implementation of nutrition programs and policies focusing on women and children. • Up to $100 million to reduce maternal, newborn, and child morbidity and mortality in Rwanda. Another $1.2 billion has been allocated for HIV/AIDS, more than half of which is funded by the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. The second largest sector was Working in Crisis and Conflict, with $5.3 billion. The Support Which Implements Fast Transitions 6 — USAID’s mechanism supporting local initiatives advancing democracy, peace, and stability — is still the biggest program, at $2.8 billion. Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance is also among the priorities, with $3 billion. The biggest is still the Central America Regional Support Services Contract, worth $1 billion. The project aims to address the root causes of migration from Central America and Mexico to the United States. The rest of the sectors and their allocations are: • Environment and global climate change — $2 billion. • Economic growth and trade — $1.6 billion. • Education — $1.1 billion. • Agriculture and food security — $778.9 million. • Water and sanitation — $259.9 million. • Gender equality and women’s empowerment — $10 million. A further $944.9 million went to contracts supporting USAID’s administration, management, and operation, both in Washington and at the missions. Update, Dec. 8, 2022: This article has been updated to reflect the most recent forecast data that was released after USAID’s Dec. 7 conference call. Try out Devex Pro Funding today with a free five-day trial, and explore funding opportunities from over 850 sources in addition to our analysis and news content.