USAID business forecast: Q4 2022

For the last few years, the U.S. Agency for International Development has not held a business forecast call for the last quarter of the fiscal year. In an email with Devex, the agency confirmed that there won't be one this year either. The next one will be for the first quarter of 2023, with the business forecast call scheduled usually around December. But USAID has still updated its business opportunity data, offering a chance to see where it is investing its money in the coming months. All the information is provisional and may change any time at the agency’s discretion. The portal also gets updated daily. Which opportunities are in and out? The business forecast for the last quarter of the year included 229 opportunities, worth $32.9 billion — up $1.8 billion, or 5.8%, from the previous quarter. A closer look into the data revealed that of this, only 167 opportunities worth $28.3 billion, were also part of the previous forecast. A total of 90 opportunities worth $3.4 billion had been delisted. Opportunities are removed from the list for three reasons: an award has already been made; USAID has decided to stop planning or implementing any activities; or funding is no longer available. Among the delisted opportunities is the Reading for East Africa’s Development, worth up to $500 million. We found that while the agency released a solicitation, no award has been made. This suggests that the activity has been halted. Other opportunities that were removed from the list ranged from $500,000 to $100 million. On the other hand, 62 new opportunities worth $4.6 billion were added in this quarter. The biggest is the Central America Regional Support Services Contract, worth up to $1 billion. The contract will contribute to USAID’s activities addressing migration from Central America and Mexico to the United States. Other large new opportunities include: • Up to $750 million for products and services supporting USAID’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance. • Up to $500 million to support the cybersecurity and information assurance program. • Up to $300 million for the local, faith, and transformative partnerships. • Up to $300 million for USAID’s portfolio management system, Development Information Solution. What about NextGen? Although there are still no changes around it, except for the anticipated solicitation and award dates, NextGen remains USAID’s biggest forecasted program, at $13.6 billion. The 10-year global health program funds the procurement and distribution of health commodities in partner countries. It accounts for 82.1% of the global health programs, or 41.4% of the overall forecasted funding. But as we have pointed out in several analyses, two NextGen Procurement Service Agent contracts remain ambiguous — PSA HIV and Integrated PSA. Both contracts are still valued at over $3 billion, unlike the rest of opportunities which are listed between a definite minimum and maximum value. These two contracts were valued at $5 billion and $4.1 billion respectively in the first quarter, and there is little reason to believe the value has changed. Since the first quarter, both contracts have an anticipated award date of November 2022. But this has been pushed further in the fourth quarter — with the PSA HIV now expected to be in May 2023 and Integrated PSA in March 2023. Other contracts under the NextGen are: • Up to $2.8 billion for PSA Diagnostics, which is for the procurement of goods and supply chain services for laboratory, diagnostics, and molecular commodities for HIV/AIDS. The anticipated award has been moved from November 2022 in the previous forecast to May 2023. • Up to $2.5 billion for the Comprehensive Technical Assistance for Health Supply Chain and Pharmaceutical Management, or CompTA, which is for supply chain and pharmaceutical management technical assistance. Its anticipated award date is still November 2022. • Up to $1.5 billion for the in-country logistics, which is for warehousing and transportation of health commodities. From November 2022 during the first two quarters of 2022, its anticipated award date has been moved to March 2023 starting third quarter. • Up to $500 million for the Technical Assistance Marketplace for Health Supply Chain and Pharmaceutical, or TA Marketplace, which focuses on technical assistance to public and private sector institutions. Its anticipated award date remains the same since second quarter — September 2023, from November 2022 during the first quarter. • Up to $300 million for the Qualifying Testing Issuing Award, which will focus on the quality assurance of the health commodities procured. Its anticipated award date has been moved to March 2023 from November 2022 during the first three quarters of the year. • Up to $50 million for strategic risk management. Its anticipated award date remains the same since second quarter — December 2023, from November 2022 in the first quarter. What are USAID’s development priorities? Among the sectors, global health remains the priority, with $16.6 billion for 39 opportunities. The lion’s share went to NextGen, but other large contracts include: • Up to $1 billion to support the prevention of malaria through vector control program. • Up to $300 million for the REACH Malaria program. • Up to $300 million to improve health systems in Uganda. The agency also allocated a further $858.8 million for HIV/AIDS, more than half of which is funded by the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. Working in crises and conflict ranked next, with $5.9 billion for 25 opportunities. The Support Which Implements Fast Transitions 6, or SWIFT 6, remains the biggest program, with $2.8 billion. It is USAID’s mechanism supporting local initiatives advancing democracy, peace, and stability. Democracy, human rights, and governance also received a significant allocation, worth $3.2 billion for 50 opportunities. Of this, up to $1 billion is allocated to the Central America Regional Support Services contract. Here are the rest of the sectors and their allocations: • Environment and global climate change — $1.8 billion. • Economic growth and trade — $1.3 billion. • Education — $882.9 million. • Agriculture and food security — $753.9 million. • Water and sanitation — $160.1 million. • Gender equality and women’s empowerment — $50 million. A further $1.4 billion went to activities supporting USAID’s administration, management, and operation, both in Washington and missions. Among country-specific programs, the biggest allocation went to El Salvador, with $1.9 billion. Ethiopia ranked next, with $513.9 million, Zambia and Uganda, with $300 million each, and South Africa and Bangladesh, with $250 million each. Try out Devex Pro Funding today with a free five-day trial, and explore funding opportunities from over 850 sources in addition to our analysis and news content.