What does COVID-19 mean for climate action?

WASHINGTON — A few months ago, before the COVID-19 pandemic consumed other priorities, global climate change advocates were pushing for a financial agreement they hoped might help low-income countries deal with the impacts of climate change. They floated the idea of a moratorium on debt to free up fiscal space for climate-related investments, but the proposal failed to gain political traction.

“This was a no-go area,” said Ingrid-Gabriela Hoven, director-general for global issues at the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, speaking in a Brookings Institution webinar Monday.

The COVID-19 crisis changed that picture entirely.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund and the Group of 20 leading nations announced debt relief plans to help low-income countries respond to the health and economic crises brought on by the pandemic.

“The decision of G-20 ministers, finance ministers, to think about a debt moratorium — although this is attached to specific conditions — is something unprecedented. It is historic and can pave the way for bigger solidarity actions to come,” Hoven said.

In addition to those debt relief efforts, the World Bank has announced plans to mobilize $160 billion in financing over the next 15 months to help countries respond to the health emergency and prepare for economic recovery in the wake of the pandemic. Other multilateral development banks have pledged additional billions of dollars in financing, and many anticipate that even greater amounts will be required.

“I would expect that more has to come and that the global multilateral system has to deliver even more and in a more coherent and consequent way in the forthcoming months,” Hoven said.

If that solidarity materializes, the response to COVID-19 could produce an unprecedented flow of public money, which would resemble the kind of emergency mobilization that climate advocates have long called for but which wealthy countries have been slow to produce. As those resources begin to flow, climate advocates face the delicate task of ensuring that this historic moment of economic stimulus — and, eventually, recovery — bridges the gap between an immediate health crisis and a climate emergency that is not going anywhere.

“A dollar can only be spent once,” Hoven said. “If these big packages get in place, we have never had the opportunity to move so much money at once. But if we don’t do it in a way that we serve the climate at the same time, we are going to face a situation [at the] end of next year already ... where it will be even more difficult to achieve the Paris [Agreement] goals.”

“I think that the critical thing with respect to stimulus packages is that we not put money into any activities that lock in high-carbon production or high-carbon public goods,” said Todd Stern, senior fellow at the Cross-Brookings Initiative on Energy and Climate.

The danger faced by climate advocates — and recognized by many of them — is that if they try to make the case that the emergency health and economic recovery efforts should serve climate goals, they risk being seen as trying to co-opt a moment of crisis on behalf of a separate agenda.

“I’m sure it’s very difficult to hear the word ‘opportunity’ if you have been directly affected or your family [has], or if you have lost your job and livelihood,” said Stéphane Hallegatte, lead economist at the World Bank’s climate change group.

Advocates need to deliver the message that taking climate change into account will actually deliver the most efficient and fairest economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic, he said.

“It’s not an additional agenda,” Hallegatte said. “I think it’s really important to be rigorous in how we talk about that, not to alienate people who must be in dire straits at the moment.”

One way to merge the two imperatives is to look at aspects of countries’ climate change action plans — known as nationally determined contributions, or NDCs — that might also provide short-term economic benefits such as jobs and income for people affected by COVID-19, according to Hallegatte. Particularly in low-income countries, these could include public works programs in areas such as forestry or soil restoration, he said.

This year, countries were expected to present their revised climate commitments at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland, which was planned for November but has now been pushed to 2021.

While many activities continue via virtual assistance or through embedded advisers, those efforts to build greater ambition into the NDCs have been delayed by the pandemic, said Pablo Vieira, global director of the NDC Partnership’s Support Unit. The international community should agree to a flexible timeline that allows countries to focus on producing quality climate plans, instead of rushing to meet a deadline, he added.

As those revised plans come together, countries should be supported in their efforts to link climate action with better health systems and with the economic recovery that they all must now pursue.

“It is a unique opportunity to think about those things that seemed previously impossible to achieve, because governments will be able to push them forward,” Vieira said.

According to Hoven, the international response to COVID-19 will also send a crucial signal about whether the world is capable of rising to a collective challenge and supporting those on its front lines.

“Unless the world now shows to developing countries and the most vulnerable that we are really here together and we show solidarity … commensurate with the impact of COVID-19 on lives and on economies, I think this is going to push back on the climate agenda when we try to reactivate it more forcefully next year,” she said.

“For me, this is not an either-or, but actually is absolutely necessary that we deal with the crisis now forcefully in big solidarity. I very much believe this is going to pave the way for perhaps stronger climate action after the crisis,” she added.

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