A crucial test for Afghanistan's new government

A new chapter filled with uncertainty opens for Afghanistan as the number of international troops dwindles down to a few thousands, raising fears over the state of security in the country. In the last few months leading to the scheduled complete drawdown of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan, security in places such as Kabul worsened. But what concerns aid groups more than security, however, is the issue of foreign aid. While a number of Afghan’s big donors have pledged to maintain support at almost current levels — the U.K. Department for International Development, for instance, has committed to maintain spending levels at 178 million pounds ($272.8 million) “at least until 2017” — a number of critical programs have ended and are entering their last phase his year. It’s unclear whether similar initiatives will be launched soon thereafter. One such program is the DfID-funded Introducing New Vocational and Skills Training program, which started in 2011 to create jobs for Afghan youth under the age of 25. It targeted youths who are mostly unemployed or underemployed, which made them more likely to be recruited by insurgent groups in the province. The program had allowed for the training of nearly 22,000 young men and women in Helmand, and more than 70 percent of these graduates have found decent jobs or are able to offer their services in the fields of tailoring, electric and motor repair, and plumbing, according to David Haines, Mercy Corps’ country director in Afghanistan. But that program ran its final course in November, along with other DfID-funded initiatives under its 18.4 million pound Helmand Growth Program. A look at the list of projects DfID is implementing or in the pipeline doesn’t indicate anything similar. At the London Conference for Afghanistan in December, however, the bilateral donor identified boosting employment, particularly in the agricultural sector, as a priority for the next three years. The ‘gap’ Another program scheduled to end soon is the World Bank-funded National Solidarity Program, dubbed as the largest development program in the country. It has led to the establishment and capacity-building of Community Development Councils in Afghanistan, which help identify and bring consensus on much-needed development projects at the grass-roots level. Charles Davy, managing director for nongovernmental organization Afghanaid, which is among the NSP’s 34 facilitating partners, told Devex the CDCs have “enjoyed great success and have become the legal conduit of all development and humanitarian assistance.” A number of them have also been successful in independently securing international donor funding, and in 2013, became part of the national government structure. A World Bank randomized controlled trial in 2013 that explored NSP’s impact in Afghanistan noted that the program improved villagers’ access to basic amenities, such as education, health care and counseling services for women, among other things. The bank isn’t closing the entire program yet; NSP’s fourth phase is already in the pipeline, but Davy said this won’t start until 2016, leaving a “gap” in programming, which could lead to some development gains being lost. He shared the same fears for an EU-funded natural resource management program in Badakhshan province, which Afghanaid also implements. That program, according to him, trained and assisted communities in revitalizing and better managing their rangeland, agroforests, and water sources and their distribution. A component of the program centered in the upper catchments expired in December; the one in the lower catchments will soon end in June. The EU, under its new multiannual indicative programming for Afghanistan, has committed to spend 1.4 billion euros ($1.7 billion) in the country through 2020, and part of its priorities will center on agriculture and rural development, including sustainable management of natural resources. But whether a similar program will be launched after that one ends is unclear. “I can’t say we have programs closing because of funding shortfalls, but some programs are coming to an end, and it looks as if there will be a gap between the current round of funding and the next,” Davy said. At stake Almost everyone acknowledges that aid funding in Afghanistan today is not as robust as it was a few years ago. The United States, the country’s largest donor, used to budget billions of dollars for Afghanistan. In 2013, its planned spending in the country was at $7.98 billion. But last year, spending in the country dropped to a little more than $1 billion. Aid groups attribute the funding decrease in part due to the troop pullout, but also to donors’ reluctance to commit money now while they remain uncertain over the new government’s capability to stabilize the country. “There was some concern that the new president wouldn’t sign the bilateral security agreement that would allow [some] international troops to stay in the country. So that inevitably delayed programs, funding over the last year,” Haines told Devex. “But that is now being resolved since President Ashraf Ghani signed the BSA, and so now [hopefully] we’ll start to see a loosening up of constraints and more funding flowing back to the country.” He added that everyone’s cautiously optimistic, and the “big make or break question” rests on whether the government would be able to take control and deliver on much-needed reforms. At the London Conference for Afghanistan in December, the Afghan government pledged to certain reform deliverables ahead of a senior officials’ meeting in mid-2015 whose agenda, among other things, is to refresh the 2012 Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework based on the new government’s priorities. Under the TMAF, donors pledged to support Afghanistan with $16 billion through 2015, and maintain same-level support until 2017, but on conditions that certain goals be met, such as improved management of public funds. Among the new government’s commitments is to pass a credible budget, implement measures to boost domestic revenue, strengthen the supervision of the financial sector, improve conditions for private sector investment and demonstrate actions focused on human rights, particularly the implementation of the National Action Plan for the Women of Afghanistan and the Afghan National Action Plan for Women, Peace and Security. International participants reiterated at the conference that their ability to sustain support for Afghanistan depends upon the “principle of mutual accountability and the Afghan government delivering on its commitments under the TMAF process.” In 2013, several donors expressed disappointment over the slow pace of reforms, particularly on election laws and human rights. “If President Ghani can gain control of the country, win the trust of people and is prepared to work with the international community, then I’m optimistic. But if for some reason he’s not, things could be very, very difficult 12 months from now,” Haines said, although he emphasized the importance of remaining optimistic or else risking making all these uncertainties a “self-fulfilling prophecy.” Check out more insights and analysis provided to hundreds of Executive Members worldwide, and subscribe to the Development Insider to receive the latest news, trends and policies that influence your organization.