The dust is now settling on the United Nations’ COP29 climate conference in Azerbaijan’s Baku, nicknamed the “City of Winds,” where many delegates and observers would indeed argue there was a lot of hot air blowing around.
The new $300 billion climate finance goal feels more like a compromise than a triumph. Meanwhile, progress on fossil fuel transition stalled, and loss and damage funding pledges remain woefully inadequate. From food systems to carbon markets, COP29 moved forward many important conversations, but the race to meaningful action still seems stuck at the starting line.
Will the road to COP30 in Belém, Brazil, bring more than just gusts of ambition? Time will tell. Here’s what we’re hearing post-Baku.
Let’s talk numbers. The new collective quantified goal, or NCQG, for climate finance was set at “at least” $300 billion per year by 2035. On paper, this triples the $100 billion target set in 2009. But the reality is less inspiring. Adjusting for inflation, this isn’t the bold leap forward the world desperately needs, many experts argue.
As Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, puts it: “The climate finance deal reached [on Sunday] in Baku is a band-aid on a bullet wound. The fact that it’s a bigger band-aid than we’ve seen before is cold comfort when the world is also bleeding more heavily than ever. A vague promise to be fulfilled by 2035 is an insult to those who have already lost their homes, health, and livelihoods.”
The Group of 77 — a coalition of low- and middle-income countries — and China had been pushing for $500 billion annually, while others sought $1 trillion. The agreement sets a floor for wealthy nations to take the lead on mobilizing $300 billion, and a loftier target for all parties to aim to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually by 2035.
Fred Njehu, Pan-African political strategist at Greenpeace Africa, remarks: “How generous of the Global North to acknowledge our $1.3 trillion USD need while offering a pipette to fill an ocean. It’s like agreeing someone needs a full reservoir of water to survive, then handing them an eyedropper and saying, ‘Good luck!’”
Importantly, the final agreement does not specify how much of this funding will be public or in grant form. The $300 billion can come from a “wide variety of sources,” the agreement says, prompting concerns that lower-income countries could slide further into debt by trying to address a problem they did not create.
ICYMI: Contested deal trumps no deal at COP29 in Baku
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Background reading: COP29 is the ‘finance COP.’ Here's what that means (Pro)
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Progress on last year’s UAE Consensus — an agreement to “transition away” from fossil fuels— was virtually nonexistent at COP29. While the United Arab Emirates called for parties to stay committed to the deal, key players like Saudi Arabia and Russia actively worked to roll back its provisions. A delegate at COP29 was accused of modifying official negotiating texts, casting doubt on the summit’s integrity, according to reporting from The Guardian.
The We Mean Business Coalition sums it up: “The inability to secure explicit commitments on fossil fuels and instead delay decision-making until Belem is a failure of leadership. Many nations sought to include the critical language agreed in the UAE Consensus, but pushback from a handful of key countries representing the vested interests of the fossil fuel industry meant the final text could not be agreed.”
Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that this was the outcome of a COP held in Azerbaijan which was attended by more than 1,700 fossil fuel lobbyists. Meanwhile, an undercover investigation by Global Witness revealed COP29 CEO Elnur Soltanov on video negotiating fossil fuel deals during the very summit meant to address the climate crisis.
Listen: What our fossil fuel addiction means for human health
The loss and damage fund, established at COP27 to provide financial support for countries grappling with climate-related disasters, was fully operationalized at this year’s conference. This was thanks to the signing of the Trustee Agreement and Secretariat Hosting Agreement with the World Bank, as well as the Host Country Agreement with the Philippines, which will serve as the fund’s base of operations.
Despite announcements of new pledges from Sweden, Australia, and New Zealand throughout COP29, the total amount pledged to the fund, which is officially called the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, or FRLD, remains far below what’s needed.
• Total commitments: $731.15 million.
• Annual need: A minimum of $100 billion annually (yes, billion).
“We are extremely disappointed that we did not see further pledges at the event from developed countries,” the Loss and Damage Collaboration says.
FRLD’s board will meet next week in Manila, from which we might see some news or updates.
For years, food systems were a sideshow in climate talks. COP28 in Dubai changed that, and COP29 continued that shift — dedicating an entire day to food, agriculture, and water, with hundreds of events throughout the two weeks. A few new initiatives also launched:
• The Baku Harmoniya Climate Initiative for Farmers, spearheaded by the Food and Agriculture Organization and Azerbaijan COP29 presidency, aims to streamline over 90 existing coalitions into a unified force for rural empowerment.
• The Livestock and Climate Solutions Hub, led by the International Livestock Research Institute, will advance sustainable livestock production, focusing on innovations in animal health, genetics, and circular economy principles.
Meanwhile, methane hasn’t always received as much attention as carbon dioxide, but it’s a powerful greenhouse gas with 80 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide in the short term. While a significant share of methane emissions comes from the oil and gas industry, agriculture and food waste are also major contributors, as organic waste decomposing in landfills releases large amounts of methane.
The Global Methane Pledge was launched at COP26, and aims to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. Over 150 countries have signed on since.
This year, there was more progress on methane with over 30 countries endorsed the COP29 Declaration on Reducing Methane from Organic Waste, committing to set specific targets in their national climate plans.
Related: Global climate funds are cutting out smallholder farmers, report finds
The conference saw progress on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, with a centralized U.N. carbon credit trading system set to launch next year. And while carbon credits could provide much-needed financing to cash-strapped countries — to the tune of $80 billion for the African continent, as my colleague Jesse Chase-Lubitz writes — there are still concerns about transparency, human rights, the potential double-counting of projects, and whether they just give polluters license to continue polluting.
• “The outcome of Baku leaves the framework for Article 6.2 dangerously loose and opaque, tailor-made for those pushing to turn it into a free-for-all,” says Isa Mulder, policy expert at Carbon Market Watch.
• “The Adoption of Article 6 is a historic milestone in establishing carbon market cooperation to boost ambition and mobilize urgent climate finance. However, we need critical fixes on Article 6.4 standards to ensure nature-based solutions — and the communities protecting these resources — aren’t sidelined,” says Pedro Martins Barata, associate vice president for carbon markets at the Environmental Defense Fund. “The Article 6.4 Supervisory Board must get these standards right, and that may require further refinements in 2025. These standards must prioritize robust engagement with Indigenous Peoples and local communities.”
Meanwhile, countries including Zambia, Benin, and Jordan announced bilateral carbon trading partnerships, but skepticism over market integrity remains high.
Read: Will carbon markets enabled by COP29 really mean $80B for Africa?
+ Explore our behind-the-scenes reporting, analyses, and podcast episodes on COP29.
As COP29 fades into the rearview mirror, attention shifts to COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where many of this year’s unresolved debates will take center stage once again. In the meantime, keep an eye on the next round of nationally determined contributions, or NDCs — countries’ plans to combat climate change — which are likely to be shaped, and perhaps constrained, by the $300 billion finance target.
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