Even for United Nations’ climate talk veterans, the finale to the COP29 climate conference in Azerbaijan was chaotic. We’ve got the roundup from a wild weekend in Baku.
Also in today’s edition: A look at South Africa’s plans for the G20 and how the group could learn from Indonesia, India, and Brazil.
COP runneth over
At nearly 3 a.m. local time Sunday, COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev gaveled in the new collective quantified goal, or NCQG, owed to developing countries for climate action. The parties agreed on “at least $300 billion” per year, an increase from the $100 billion set in 2009. But, as Devex’s Jesse Chase-Lubitz tells me, it almost didn’t happen.
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The debates were on a knife-edge all night, with the groups of least developed countries, or LDCs, and small island developing states, or SIDS, staging a walk out around 7 p.m., insisting that their needs be met before they return to negotiations.
The “at least” in the final text was a compromise from developed countries. Still, many lower-income countries suffering the worst effects of climate change did not hold back their disappointment.
One of the biggest sticking points was how multilateral development bank financing will be counted from now on. In the past, only contributions from developed countries counted toward the finance goal. Now, donations from all countries will be included, though they have the option to opt out. This is meant to account for huge sums from the likes of China, India, and Brazil — which are still classified as developing nations.
As the plenary continued into the early morning, global powerhouse India was the final holdout, saying that the NCQG is meant to assist developing countries, not utilize their money to make the goal more feasible for developed nations. In the end it passed with a long disgruntled speech from India. “We oppose the adoption,” said Chandni Raina, a negotiator for India. “We are extremely, extremely disappointed,” she added, calling the deal “stage-managed.”
The agreement’s failure to specify how much of the financing would be public vs. private was also a major disappointment for lower-income countries, Devex’s Ayenat Mersie tells me from Baku. Oxfam International Climate Change Policy Lead Nafkote Dabi calls it “a global Ponzi scheme that the private equity vultures and public relations people will now exploit.”
Donors had a different spin of course, with Wopke Hoekstra, the European Union commissioner for climate action, posting that COP29 had delivered “an ambitious and realistic goal and an increased contributor base.”
Ayenat will have more in a special edition newsletter hitting your inbox tomorrow, including on the rules agreed for an international carbon trading system and the attempt in the final text to “encourage” developing countries (including China) to make contributions to the climate finance target “on a voluntary basis.”
+ Catch up with a daily account on how the negotiations progressed in Baku with our reporter’s notebook.
Quality assurance
While a new goal is now in place for the quantity of climate finance, questions remain about the quality of the funding too.
Enter a new study, commissioned by the Family Farmers for Climate Action alliance, which found that finance from the world’s two biggest climate funds is failing smallholder farmers.
Devex’s Tania Karas reports that the analysis examined 40 climate and biodiversity projects by the Global Environment Facility, or GEF, and the Green Climate Fund, or GCF, in the agriculture and land-use sector between 2019 and 2022.
Among the findings:
• Although half of the funding was targeted at farmer-related activities, none of the money went directly to family farmers or organizations.
• Only a third of GEF and GCF's $2.6 billion in agriculture, fishing, and forestry funding during that period targeted sustainable practices.
GEF did not respond to a request for comment, while GCF pushed back against the report, saying in an email that the findings “do not do justice to the already significant smallholder farmer reach of GCF's investments.”
GCF noted each project requires a public “stakeholder engagement plan” and argued that they “regularly involve farmer or producer organizations’ representatives.”
Read: Global climate funds are cutting out smallholder farmers, report finds
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Here’s looking at South Africa’s G20
“A challenge and an opportunity” — that’s how one observer sees South Africa’s presidency of the Group of 20 largest and emerging economies, which officially starts next month. The first African nation to hold the position, it plans to hone in on inclusive economic growth, food security, and artificial intelligence.
And, as Devex’s Elissa Miolene reports, South African officials say the country is considering launching a review of past G20 commitments, and possibly, a review of the G20 overall.
South Africa will also have to contend with the second U.S. presidency of Donald Trump. But speaking at the conclusion of Brazil’s G20 presidency in Rio de Janeiro last week, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa used the example of Argentina — which went public with its disagreements without blocking the final declaration — to argue that progress is still possible.
“What we established at this summit is that even if one member, or one country, dissents, it will not stop the show. It will not stop forward movement,” said Ramaphosa. “Once there is sufficient consensus, we move on.”
Read: What will the first African G20 presidency look like? (Pro)
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Debt and repeat
You probably don’t need more statistics to know the debt crisis facing low-income countries is bad. But here are two anyway:
• 3.3 billion people live in countries that spend more on debt interest payments than education or health.
• The world’s lowest-income and most climate-vulnerable countries have debt repayments that are twice what they receive in climate finance.
Four years ago, the G20 established the Common Framework to help low-income countries restructure their mounting debt, but it has been criticized for a lack of effectiveness and impact.
Last week, G20 leaders promised they would be “stepping up the Common Framework’s implementation in a predictable, timely, orderly and coordinated manner.”
But that failed to impress experts like Jayati Ghosh, a professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
“I’m getting a little tired of statements,” Ghosh tells Elissa. “There are some immediate and obvious measures that could be taken, but they’re not being taken.”
Ghosh raised the prospect of a debt standstill: A temporary suspension of debt repayments for both principal and interest.
“It makes creditors a little more interested in a speedy resolution,” she says. “That’s such an obvious thing, and it hasn’t been done.”
Read: Did the G20 move the needle on debt? (Pro)
ICYMI: Debt levels are high, but will solutions come through? (Pro)
Model leaders
It’s not all doom and gloom though, at least according to Atila Roque, Otto Saki, and Vuyiswa Sidzumo. The trio from the Ford Foundation argue in this opinion piece for Devex that recent presidency holders Brazil, India, and Indonesia have offered “models for what inclusive, effective, and principled G20 leadership looks like.”
Indonesia highlighted the crucial role of Indigenous communities in conservation, India’s G20 presidency saw the unprecedented inclusion of the African Union as a permanent member, and Brazil “succeeded in bringing the issue of inequality to the center of the agenda.”
“Members of the G20 would do well to listen to the people most impacted by the problems they seek to solve,” the trio write.
Opinion: The G20 must follow civil society’s and social movements’ lead
In other news
Co-facilitators for the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development released an elements paper based on close to 300 inputs from member states. [United Nations]
As the last negotiations for a global plastic treaty begin in South Korea, countries are divided over whether to cap production of the ubiquitous material. [Bloomberg]
The EU has recalled its ambassador to Niger following the junta’s criticism of how humanitarian aid for flood victims in the West African country was managed. [DW]
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About the author
Vince Chadwickvchadw
Vince Chadwick is a contributing reporter at Devex. A law graduate from Melbourne, Australia, he was social affairs reporter for The Age newspaper, before covering breaking news, the arts, and public policy across Europe, including as a reporter and editor at POLITICO Europe. He was long-listed for International Journalist of the Year at the 2023 One World Media Awards.
