Devex Newswire: For World Bank, the only certainty today is uncertainty

Today, all eyes will be trained on the World Bank and International Monetary Fund as they kick off their annual meetings. We have everything you need to prepare for the expected — and unexpected — that’s sure to crop up this week.  

Also in today’s edition: Uncertainty is the running theme of this newsletter, as the Trump administration puts its stamp on everything from the environment to philanthropies.

Banking on safe bets

Not that long ago, the World Bank declared it would embark on an ambitious reform agenda. While it made some strides, today the bank seems to be less vocal about any grand reforms, preferring to quietly push through whatever it can in this moment of geopolitical turbulence and, of course, Donald Trump’s history-upending U.S. presidency.

“Stealth mode” is how Clemence Landers of the Center for Global Development described the mood during a recent Devex Pro Briefing with my colleague Adva Saldinger, who has a comprehensive rundown of what to expect at this week’s World Bank-IMF annual meetings in Washington, D.C.

One thing to expect? A focus on jobs — a Banga priority — and on crowding in more private capital. Both are urgent in this time of diminished foreign aid, but both are also safe no-brainers — unlike more controversial issues such as climate change, Trump’s bête noire.

The Trump administration has been abundantly clear that it wants the World Bank and IMF to return to what it views as their core missions: for the former, it’s poverty alleviation and private sector-led development, and for the latter, it’s sticking to fiscal and monetary policy.

Some World Bank members, however, have quietly expressed frustration at the degree of U.S. control over the bank and IMF, Landers said. While up until now that feeling has been muted, it could bubble to the surface at the meetings.

Another issue that is sure to dominate discussions this week is debt — specifically, the unsustainable loads of it that many lower-income countries are saddled with, which in turn gobbles up money that could be used for development priorities such as health care and education. While there’s been plenty of talk about debt restructuring in recent years — and you’ll likely hear plenty more exhortations this week — action has been frustratingly slow and scarce.

Add it all up, and you have an agenda marked by unpredictability and instability.

As IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva put it in a speech last week, “Buckle up: Uncertainty is the new normal and it’s here to stay.”

Read: Uncertainty ‘new normal’ as World Bank, IMF meet amid aid cuts, discord

ICYMI: Will the World Bank-IMF meetings try to fly under the political radar? (Pro)

Listen: A look ahead to the World Bank and IMF meetings

+ What else can you expect at this year’s World Bank-IMF annual meetings? Wall-to-wall coverage by our team on the ground tracking the stories that matter — capped by Devex Impact House @ WB/IMF, our two-day event exploring all of the development ramifications of today’s complex funding environment. Check out the full agenda and register here. Be sure to also stay tuned for my colleague Michael Igoe’s special curtain-raising newsletter coming to your inboxes shortly.

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Weighing in

The Trump administration has reportedly also made its priorities clear to the Global Environment Facility, or GEF, one of the world’s main multilateral funds for environmental protection and sustainable development.

A representative of the U.S. Treasury Department participated in a meeting to structure GEF’s ninth replenishment despite the U.S. government shutdown, a source with inside information of the meetings told Devex.

Hillary Clifford, an international economist in the U.S. Treasury Department, told GEF members that the U.S. does not want to increase the amount it pays toward climate change, my colleague Jesse Chase-Lubitz writes. Instead, it wants to focus on biodiversity, plastics, illegal fisheries, and marine life and ocean ecosystems that span multiple countries, according to the source, who added that the chance of continued contributions from the U.S. sounded “positive but not certain.”

“In uncertain times, it is extremely important that we’re able to give hope for a brighter future,” said GEF CEO and Chairperson Carlos Manuel Rodríguez in a press release. “The GEF, and this crucial ninth replenishment, can be a source of hope and optimism to help achieve global environmental goals and live in harmony with nature.”

Scoop: US makes priorities known at Global Environment Facility talks 

Avoiding the mess

Amid all this uncertainty, there’s one thing you can count on: The aid community isn’t a darling of this White House. Not only did Trump shutter the world’s premier aid agency, choking off billions in bilateral assistance, but he’s also going after foundations and nonprofits in a campaign critics say is politically motivated.

That has piled on the pain for aid organizations already drowning in said uncertainty. And we may be witnessing the first ripple effects.

The Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, one of the world’s largest philanthropic organizations focused on improving the lives of children, announced it will no longer fund U.S.-based nonprofits, citing uncertainty over the U.S. policy environment for foreign funders.

CIFF does not break down its giving by country, but in 2024, grantees included The Rockefeller Foundation, the PATH Foundation, Piramal Foundation USA, and The Carter Center. Its total grants added up to $640 million in 2024.

While CIFF did not specify which U.S. policies prompted the move, legal experts say recent shifts in enforcement and increased scrutiny under U.S. laws governing foreign influence and tax compliance may be driving the caution, Jesse writes.

“This is a deeply sobering signal: major funders are stepping back from life-saving and life-improving work because of policy uncertainty,” the CEO of an organization that received a termination notice told her. “First USAID, now this -- organizations are left feeling there is no safe harbor for sustaining critical missions. For grantees, the risks that would warrant such an abrupt end were never made clear. A more responsible approach would have included longer notice and time for leaders and communities to plan a thoughtful transition.”

Read: Major foundation pauses grants to US, citing unclear policy changes

Related: Trump’s scrutiny of nonprofits escalates, with Soros’ OSF at the center

Billions to … more billions

Whether we’re talking about money from what was once USAID, philanthropic grants, or World Bank loans coming to the rescue, no amount of development funding is guaranteed nowadays.

So self-reliance has taken on added urgency, particularly in Africa, where governments are looking inward to finance everything from emergency assistance to public health and long-term infrastructure.

Enter Africa50.

Launched in 2015 by African states and the African Development Bank, the investment platform was set up to help close the continent’s infrastructure funding gap, which is estimated to be in the range of $68 billion to $108 billion.

Africa50 now counts more than 30 African countries, two central banks, and AfDB as shareholders and has a portfolio valued at more than $8 billion.

“I think it all goes back to our mandate: African governments recognized the need for a Pan-African vehicle to expand the pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects. At the time, there was capital available, but few well-prepared projects, so Africa50 was set up to fill that gap as a homegrown solution,” Moshood Bode Abolade, Africa50’s investment director, tells my colleague Ayenat Mersie.

“The first realization was that there’s a lot of money in Africa — the question is how to unlock it. We had to walk the journey of showing institutional investors, especially pension funds, that African infrastructure is a bankable proposition,” he adds. “We weren’t just saying this; our portfolio demonstrated that infrastructure here can deliver commercial returns that meet expectations.”

“The money is there; the challenge is to design vehicles that both attract their capital and fulfill our original mandate, given the constraints on government resources.”

Read: Inside Africa50’s push to unlock African capital for infrastructure

In other news

U.S. President Donald Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer are among the world leaders who will be in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, for a Gaza peace summit starting Monday. [The Guardian]

Low- and middle-income countries that are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change spend more paying their debts than they receive in climate finance, according to a think tank. [The Independent]

A surge in gang violence in Haiti has pushed about 5.7 million people into severe food insecurity, according to a report by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. [Al Jazeera]