Has USAID spending been cut by less than we thought?

Far more of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s planned spending may have been retained following recent aid cuts than had previously been thought, according to fresh calculations from the Center for Global Development. CGD, a development think tank, made in-depth calculations based on two leaked lists of canceled and retained USAID awards, which have been widely circulated in the aid community. According to CGD calculations, published in a blog on March 20, it is likely that only around 34% of all USAID awards, by dollar value, have been terminated. Previously, reporting had centered on the number of awards that had been terminated — around 83% — but CGD identified that typically, canceled awards had significantly lower value than those that were retained, meaning that the dollar value of terminated awards is lower than had originally been feared. Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at CGD and one of the blog’s authors, was quick to highlight that while his calculations showed things in a better light, it was not all positive. “Compared to the numbers we were seeing, it’s better,” he said. “But it’s a long way from good.” Where have the cuts fallen? CGD calculated the sectors worst affected, finding that some sectors potentially lost all funding. “The estimates suggest that potentially all awards were terminated in sectors including private sector competitiveness, higher education, and political competition and consensus building,” the CGD blog said. “Other sectors were cut by potentially 90 percent or above, including infrastructure, good governance, basic education, family planning, civil society, conflict mitigation, and trade and investment.” Other sectors, particularly food, health, and humanitarian aid, seem to have seen relatively fewer cuts. These reductions appear to line up with recent proposals for a new, narrower, focus on U.S. aid, which appears to have gained some support among Republicans in recent days. One recently leaked memo, for example, outlined plans for a U.S. Agency for International Humanitarian Assistance within the Department of State, and advocates for it to focus chiefly on these areas. Other major factors The CGD blog also highlighted that two important factors will affect future spending. The first is that with most USAID staffers either sacked or on leave, it is not clear how many new awards are being made, while there are few people to make payments on existing awards. “While there is some evidence of payments recommencing for at least some USAID awardees since March 10th, likely related to a court order, the list of active USAID solicitations for contractors remains extremely short,” the blog said. However, CGD also pointed out that Congress has ordered more spending on foreign assistance. The courts, meanwhile, have been clear that money appropriated by Congress must be spent. “At some point Secretary Rubio and the Administration will have to face the issue that Congress just passed a continuing resolution that funds foreign assistance at existing levels through the 2025 fiscal year, with numerous sectoral budget lines, and they also have to get Congress to agree to dismantle USAID,” the blog said, referring to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. “There is still considerable scope for reversal.” How trustworthy are the lists? The leaked lists relied on by CGD come with a number of caveats. They cannot be independently verified as correct. And they are not up to date: A number of aid organizations told Devex that awards are still being terminated and reinstated, and CGD said it is aware of “widespread reporting” of the same issue. In addition, CGD identified $149 billion of awards that should have been accounted for, but the two lists, added together, come to only $113.9 billion, leaving $35.1 billion unaccounted for. The lists omit entries that appear on USASpending.gov — the official government record — and include others that do not appear there. Nor do the lists appear to correspond to what is published on the Department of Government Efficiency tracker of canceled awards. Despite these limitations, the length and detail of the leaked lists suggest that they are likely to represent at least a reasonably accurate picture of the current state of U.S. foreign assistance. Devex is continuing to work with experts in aid sector data to build as complete a picture as possible of the current state of all USAID awards.