How India and the G20 ducked the coal question again

Under an Indian presidency at the Group of 20 major economies’ summit earlier this month, world leaders pledged to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, but failed to set goals on the phasing out of fossil fuels — a reflection of New Delhi’s own conflicted stance on clean energy transition, said climate activists. India presented the agreement as a win in a geopolitical environment marred by tension over the war in Ukraine, with G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant calling it “probably the most vibrant, dynamic and ambitious document on climate action.” The joint statement emphasized the need for better climate financing, with countries agreeing for the first time that low- and middle-income countries needed $5.8-5.9 trillion by 2030 to meet climate goals. But leaders were criticized for failing to take more concrete steps toward halting the use of fossil fuels — which experts say is necessary to limit the worst impacts of climate change. The countries that make up the G20 represent 85% of global GDP and account for 80% of global emissions. "While the G20’s commitment to renewable energy targets is commendable, it sidesteps the root cause — our global dependency on fossil fuels,” said Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International, an international network of civil society groups fighting the climate crisis. Hypocritical to single out coal? India has presented itself on the global stage as a champion of the green agenda, but it has also expressed reluctance to commit to phase out coal. Despite significant progress on increasing its renewable energy capacity in recent years, coal still generates around 70% of India’s electricity supply and powers the country’s rapid economic development, being both essential for industry and a huge source of employment. At the 26th United Nations climate summit, or COP 26, in Glasgow in 2021, India, alongside China, blocked a call to include the phasing out of the use of coal in the final declaration — a move which drew heavy criticism from other nations. New Delhi has argued that calls from the West for low- and middle-income countries to reduce their dependence on coal are hypocritical, given the continued reliance of Europe and the United States on other fossil fuels. “The Indian position is absolutely right on that in the sense that you cannot talk about phasing out coal and ignore gas,” Ashish Fernandes, CEO of Indian think tank Climate Risk Horizons, told Devex in an interview. But he added that India has used the failure of higher-income nations to follow through on climate pledges to counter pressure to take action at home. “The West’s hypocrisy becomes a very convenient screen for India to hide behind,” he said, creating a reluctance at forums such as the G20 from all parties to “talk about the elephant in the room.” Ongoing dependence Weaning itself off coal is likely to take India decades, with the infrastructure and technology needed to support clean energy alternatives currently lagging, said Singh. “While renewable energy sources are expanding, there remains a technological gap in providing a consistent and reliable supply of electricity, especially for heavy industries that demand stable and high-energy outputs.” Rising electricity demand has added to India’s concerns, as higher economic activity and increased air conditioning use during unprecedented heat waves, among other factors, saw peak demand in 2022 increase by around 8% from the year before. “Aspirations are increasing, affordability is increasing, urbanization is happening,” explained Vibhuti Garg, director for South Asia at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a global think tank examining energy markets and policies. “All of this is leading to [a] huge increase in demand for energy products.” The global energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine further heightened concerns over abandoning domestic coal production prematurely, highlighting the dangers of relying on international markets for energy security. In response, India has toyed with the idea of opening new coal mines, even while it invests in alternative energy sources. According to a 2023 report on global coal plant pipeline, which found that India gave “mixed signals” on future coal use, the country has 28.5 gigawatts of coal power capacity planned, up 2.6 gigawatts in 2022, and 32 gigawatts under construction. Last November, Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman called for greater investment in coal production at the launch of the country’s biggest coal mine auction. But a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found that power deficits were a result of poor management and a failure to adequately prepare for the monsoon season — which hampers coal mining and transportation — rather than a fuel or power generation infrastructure shortage. The economic case for new renewables The justification for new coal infrastructure also falls short from an economic perspective, said Fernandes. Though he acknowledged that phasing down existing coal use in India will be a slow process, he said that all new demand could be met by a growing renewable energy sector rather than new coal infrastructure. “There is no financial or economic case in India for new coal at all, because the alternatives are not just technically able to deliver, but they're economically superior as well,” he said. A transition to alternative energy sources would have tangible health benefits for India’s citizens, too. Fossil fuel combustion caused an estimated 2.5 million premature deaths in India in 2018, according to environmental research. India’s continued pushback against abandoning coal, despite the economic and health incentives, is driven by “largely politics, and business as usual,” said Fernandes. “There are vested lobbies that benefit from every step in the coal process.” Government support of new coal could actually “act as a disincentive to new renewables, because of the way the energy markets work,” warned Fernandes. “India is at that point where it's not an all-of-the-above thing anymore. It really needs to choose, and new coal really has no part in that mix.” Conversely, a stronger commitment to clean energy alternatives could help to attract investment in renewables infrastructure from the private sector, said Garg, by signaling to private capital that it is safe to invest. A clear stance in favor of renewables to meet future demand would be “a way to kickstart some private interest, showing government intent and willingness,” she said. “There’s a lot of opportunity, but having the right policy environment … having the right fiscal support measures can also help bring in a lot of private capital.” On the international stage, Fernandes believes that “India missed a trick” by not signaling more strongly its commitment to renewables. If New Delhi had used its G20 presidency to push for a universal fossil fuel phaseout, including committing to a phaseout of coal domestically, it could have used that as a bargaining chip to demand additional finance and regional help from industrialized nations to meet renewable energy targets. “That has benefits for Indian citizens in terms of cheaper energy, cleaner air, and job creation,” said Fernandes. “India could potentially exploit that sweet spot, if it has the political will to.” A 2022 report estimated 1 million workers could potentially be employed in green jobs if India meets targets for scaling renewable energy. Continuing to point out the hypocrisy of the West on climate commitments should be one of India’s key goals at global cooperation summits such as the G20 and upcoming summits like COP 28, he said. “At the same time, India's position doing that will be even stronger if it cuts down on the hypocrisy at home,” Fernandes added.