Devex Dish: A whiplash week for the Black Sea grain deal

Just as there was some positive news on global food prices — even as the most vulnerable had yet to benefit from the trickle down of cheaper staples — Russian President Vladimir Putin heightened fears of world hunger by pulling out of the recently inked grain deal on Saturday. Today, Russia announced it would rejoin.

The hard-fought Black Sea Grain Initiative, reached in July, saw the export of nearly 10 million tons of “grain and food stuffs” out of Ukraine, somewhat alleviating a food crisis that put millions at risk of starvation worldwide. It’s extremely positive news that Russia intends to continue compliance, but shows how tenuous the future of exports of key staple grains from war-torn Ukraine remains.

Russia halted its participation for “an indefinite period” over the weekend after blaming Ukraine — which has not confirmed its culpability — for using drones to bomb ships that Russia claims were transporting grain under the deal, set to expire on Nov. 19. Russia claimed that the attack demonstrated that grain ships would not be safe in the Black Sea.

At least one ship “engaged in the initiative” is chartered by the World Food Programme, according to the Joint Coordination Centre, responsible for overseeing the deal. The vessel is loaded with 30,000 metric tons of wheat bound for emergency food aid in the Horn of Africa, currently stricken by the worst drought in 40 years. International maritime tracking shows the ship approaching the Turkish straits, indicating it safely left Ukrainian waters. A WFP spokesperson tells me it is bound for Ethiopia.

The U.S. government strongly condemned Russia’s pullout over the weekend.

“Any attempt to undermine the agreement is an attack on hungry families around the world whose lives and livelihoods are dependent on this initiative,” U.S. Agency for International Development Administrator Samantha Power said. Nearly half of the wheat exports from Ukraine through the initiative have been for lower-income countries, enough to make nearly three billion loaves of bread, she said.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said that while some grain has left Ukraine over land, those routes remain challenging and there is no substitute for continued access to the ports. Shipping companies need the security of the deal to keep operating in the Black Sea, which will help bring down global prices of grains and oils.

ICYMI: Inside the UN's high-stakes deal to open Ukraine's grain corridor

And: How ammonia could hobble Black Sea grain deal

A stark warning

As ever, my colleague Shabtai Gold is on top of the latest warnings from the World Bank. Low-income countries are extremely susceptible to a worsening food crisis, the bank said in its latest analysis, because their currencies are plunging. Because the world’s lowest-income people spend more of their money on food, even moderating food prices doesn’t help much.

With global commodities priced in U.S. dollars — a currency at its highest level since 2000 — low-income families struggle to buy basic foods. A small bright spot, though: Wheat crops are yielding a better-than-expected outcome and rice is stable. Yet bank experts are keeping a wary eye on weather patterns, which threaten to reduce output in the southern hemisphere.

Read: Collapsing currencies are exacerbating food crisis, World Bank warns

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A mouthful

Germany’s presidency of the Group of Seven leading industrial nations has been monopolized by steering the global response to the food crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But Lesch tells me Berlin wants to use the bloc to create a platform for coordination — explicitly not duplicating work already being done by other organizations. Enter the Global Alliance for Food Security, which aims to do just that and doesn’t require G-7 membership to join. Nor does it require pledging of funds “although obviously we encourage everyone to put money on the table,” Lesch says.

Read more: How the G-7 is responding to the food crisis (Pro)

+ Devex Pro members can read the latest in our series on how global organizations are responding to the food crisis. Unlock all the articles by starting your 15-day free trial of Devex Pro now.

The inside look at COP 27

The 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP 27, is fast approaching, and Devex will have a team on the ground covering the most important happenings for global development, including the first agriculture day and the various food pavilions. You can check out our events here.

But first, Devex Pro members can join us tomorrow at 9 a.m. ET (2 p.m. CET) for a webinar moderated by my colleague William Worley to get you up to speed on everything before COP 27 kicks off in Egypt on Sunday. He’ll be speaking with representatives from the Climate Action Network, World Resources Institute, and Commonwealth Secretariat about all things climate related, from loss and damage to finance and the role of African voices in the first COP hosted by the continent.

+ What concrete outcomes for food systems are you looking for from COP 27? Share them with me at dish@devex.com.

You better work

Those who have been following our Devex Pro series know that many organizations have had to adjust operations because of the food crisis. My colleague Justin Sablich combed our Devex job board to put together a list of opportunities focused on the response, which will be updated on an ongoing basis.

Jobs: The globaldev organizations hiring in response to the food crisis

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Chew on this

The use of vague terminology such as “nature-based solutions” amounts to greenwashing, a new report argues. [iPES-Food]

FAO and the International Atomic Energy Association signed a memorandum of understanding to “scale up collaboration on peaceful nuclear technologies for agri-food systems.” [FAO]

Climate change increases the risk of malnutrition by increasing the spread of many infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue, according to a major paper on the adverse health effects of a warming planet. [The Lancet]