It’s been another turbulent week that’s seen significant movement — both good and bad — in the world of U.S. aid, including detailed data on what’s been cut and more information on what could replace USAID. Meanwhile, across the pond, we’ve got more details on several European governments that plan to cut aid — and those that will increase it.
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For weeks, we’ve been trying to understand what the Trump administration has actually done to USAID awards. Which ones were cut? Which ones were kept? Which sectors have been worst hit? Within the U.S. State Department, it seemed as if programs were getting canceled and reinstated every day, creating an environment where there was a huge lack of clarity — even among the agencies delivering programs — about what exactly had survived.
Nor was it just the sector. Even U.S. lawmakers seem to have been kept in the dark.
Finally, last week, what appears to have been a definitive list of canceled programs made its way to the U.S. Congress. The list was widely leaked, and we’ve spent several days poring over it.
The first thing we did was try and work out which implementers had been worst hit. We’ve produced three separate articles, trying to use unobligated funds as a proxy for future pipeline. They are:
• Contractors.
• Nonprofits.
Interestingly, a fresh analysis by the Center for Global Development, a transatlantic development think tank, which looks at a different metric — funds obligated in the most recent year — finds that spending has been cut by only 38%.
All of this presents a somewhat better picture than we might have thought a month ago, when it appeared possible that foreign aid would effectively cease, despite Marco Rubio’s insistence to the contrary.
But it is still not a good situation. USAID has lost most of its staff and no new awards are currently being made.
Read: The USAID awards the Trump administration killed — and kept
Explore the analyses:
Who lost the most? The 20 USAID contractors hit hardest (Pro)
The 23 USAID nonprofit organizations that lost the most (Pro)
Which multilaterals are hit most by USAID terminations? (Pro)
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Funding activity
We publish tenders, grants, and other funding announcements on our Funding Platform. Here are some of the ones that have been viewed the most in the past 10 days.
The African Development Bank has announced an investment of $331 million to boost economic growth and industrial competitiveness in Lesotho.
German aid funder BMZ is seeking firms to conduct a baseline study for a living income project for cocoa farmers in Ghana.
Another German funder, KfW, contributed €19.8 million ($21.3 million) to reduce acute and chronic undernutrition among vulnerable children and women in Yemen.
The European Union is granting $15,000 to help local government authorities deliver essential services in Gambia.
The Japan Bank for International Cooperation has signed a loan agreement of $190 million to strengthen electricity transmission and biofuel projects in Brazil.
UNOPS is inviting proposals for a project to close the climate finance gap at the local level and empower frontline communities in Fiji.
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What happens next?
While we now know what’s happened already, we can move on to the next key question: What is the administration going to do next?
We’ve had several weeks in which alternative proposals have been flying back and forth. But now, the Trump administration has announced what it intends to do.
The plan involves restructuring some State Department bureaus and offices that would implement USAID programs, eliminating “substantially all” USAID employees, and conducting a new process at the State Department to hire relevant experts — which could mean rehiring some terminated USAID staff. More details of staffing plans were contained in an email sent to staff at the end of last week.
U.S. foreign assistance under the new program looks to be substantially more limited in scope, with a focus on humanitarian assistance, global health, food aid, and some strategic investment and national security programs.
Meanwhile, though, the lawsuits to stop some of the administration’s dismantling of the U.S. aid apparatus are still going strong — and there are many of them. So far, those lawsuits have provided some resistance against the actions of the administration. Judges have made it clear that the president’s foreign affairs powers are limited and that Congress controls government spending. They’ve pointed out probable constitutional violations in how USAID was shut down and ordered the administration to pay out what it owed to partners.
Crucially, though, they have not prevented the closure of programs or the dismissal of staff.
Read: Trump administration reveals its plans to Congress to 'abolish' USAID
See also: USAID’s ‘final mission’ email slashes agency’s staff, one last time
Plus: What's the status of all the lawsuits against Trump's aid freeze?
The cuts keep coming
Meanwhile, we’ve looked over all the data and produced a fresh map of what’s happening to aid across Europe.
Most countries are making cuts — although not all — and it’s for a number of reasons.
In part, they’re boosting defense spending due to Trump’s insistence that Europe focus on defending itself. But the changes predate Trump; many countries — as well as the European Union itself — have been shifting resources for years.
Recently, European countries’ aid budgets have often been at least partially sacrificed to internal budgeting issues. Leaders have also been wrestling with a surge of far-right populism, which is critical of aid. And more and more aid is being directed to self-interested issues, not least, refugee costs.
Read: Europe is cutting development spending, and it's not because of Trump (Pro)
Bye to GNI?
The United Kingdom, meanwhile, has made some adjustments to its aid targets. It’s shifted away from a commitment to link aid to the fluctuations of its gross national income, or GNI, which has worried some commentators. But it could well prove to be a positive, because the shift also comes with changes to how the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office development budget is set.
Right now, FCDO’s budget is at the mercy of spending on in-donor refugee costs, as well as the performance of the economy, making it hard to plan spending. But under the new system, the department should have more certainty about what its budget will be.
Read: UK opts to disconnect development from gross national income
ICYMI: Inside the UK aid cuts — what will the 0.3% budget cover? (Pro)
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About the author
David Ainsworth@daveainsworth4
David Ainsworth is business editor at Devex, where he writes about finance and funding issues for development institutions. He was previously a senior writer and editor for magazines specializing in nonprofits in the U.K. and worked as a policy and communications specialist in the nonprofit sector for a number of years. His team specializes in understanding reports and data and what it teaches us about how development functions.
