Opinion: We need to talk about climate change in global south cities

Global headlines recently turned on India, as record-breaking temperatures beat down upon it. Headlines typically focused on Delhi, where temperatures reached a record 49.2 degrees Celsius (120.5F) this May and remained unprecedented until July. India’s financial capital, Mumbai, ground to a halt as it faced severe flooding last month. Across large swaths of the global south, temperatures are soaring and flood risk is increasing because of how urbanization is happening, and how fast. Yet, at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s conference of the parties, or COP, meetings, this subject receives little attention. If this does not change, the global quest for decarbonization may fall flat. The global south is where the bulk of urbanization will happen over the next 30 years. India will add over 200 million people — the equivalent of 20 new megacities — to its urban population between 2011 and 2036, up from 377 million to 594 million. By 2050, Africa’s urban population will almost triple, accounting for 21% of the global total. In tandem, new infrastructure and property will have to be built. How carbon resilient this new urban expanse will be, and how carbon intensive, will depend on how it is planned and designed. To date, urban growth has worsened environmental conditions, as our research has found in India, exacerbating flooding, temperatures, and air pollution. Roads designed for rural traffic have become major thoroughfares, leaving little room for public transport, with car usage projected to skyrocket. Housing is built of low-quality material that is unfit for the weather, and the unreliability and inefficiency of power grids that transmit energy to cool them mean diesel generators are needed for 24/7 power. Green spaces are also few and far between. How urban growth has unfolded so far has also given rise to a trend in India’s cities that does not exist in high-income countries. In cities like Seoul and London, emissions per person are lower — up to 63% — than the national average. Yet in cities like Delhi and Kolkata, emissions per person go completely the other way — up to double the national average. Density is used to explain why there are lower rates of emissions in places like London — if more people are packed together, emissions look lower. But as some of the densest places on earth, India’s cities are clearly on a different trajectory. A city-led climate agenda Changing the trajectory of India’s cities and others in the global south requires careful planning and management. Yet, across South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa, municipal governments are under-resourced and underskilled. In India, for example, technical skills in municipalities, such as in climate sciences and urban planning, are rarely available, helping explain why only half of its biggest cities have climate change-adaptation plans. They don’t have the money, power, or funding to support one. Initiatives do exist to support cities tackling climate change, but their reach and scope can only go so far. Networks like ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability and C40 Cities provide support to cities globally, from capacity to funding to sharing best practices, but they have limited resources and are covering contexts from Europe to Africa. To put this into perspective, the World Bank has stated that $4.5-5.4 trillion annually is needed to tackle climate change in urban areas, but in 2017-2018, only $384 billion was invested. While opportunities for finance are growing, most cities don’t have the capacities nor the support to access it. Focus on cities of the global south To solve the situation, cities must become a key focus at future COPs. To date, the process has concentrated on agreeing to high-level targets and funding for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Now, conversations must turn to whether those targets are deliverable — including by looking at the global south’s cities. This means asking whether land is being set aside to make room for public transport, wider roads, and parks. Or how energy grids will be upgraded to support renewable energy. Or what materials and designs to cool buildings need to be incentivized via building regulations. Instead of arguing about when the $100 billion promised by high-income nations to tackle climate change should be delivered, the focus should be on how it can be spent — through urban infrastructure investment, for example, cushioning private investment, and improving municipal capacities. Perhaps a C40 focused on the global south is needed to set these needs out dedicated to smaller, but fast-growing cities, like Bunia in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Vijayawada in India, where support mechanisms are needed the most. The first meeting of urban ministers at a UNFCCC COP is planned for COP 27, in Egypt later this year. This provides the right backdrop to push this urban agenda. While overall emissions in the global south remain low compared to high-income nations, reaching net-zero means lowering emissions in every country in the world. This requires collective action. If those urbanizing fast are not supported to do so sustainably, progress will falter. All the breakthroughs that make the headlines during future COPs can be celebrated, but without the urban landscape to support them, it won’t just be heat waves that are causing global headlines from Delhi in the years to come.