'People had had enough': Why Modi's victory in India looks like a loss

As India tallied up votes at the end of a seven-weeklong election, incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, fell short of retaining its parliamentary majority — seemingly delivering a verdict on policies that have emphasized Hindu nationalism, investment in infrastructure, and welfare handouts for the poor, but largely failed to deliver jobs or widespread prosperity. The shock election results, which will leave Modi reliant on alliance parties to form a new government, were a reminder that despite India’s rapid growth and increasing presence on the global stage, the majority of Indians still live in relative poverty. India has a per capita gross domestic product of just over $2,000. “People had had enough,” said Kavita Srivastava, the national secretary of the human rights organization People’s Union for Civil Liberties. “The people of India are suffering. There are a lot of issues which are unaddressed, like employment, the breakdown of everyday survival systems.” Earlier this year, a report from the World Inequality Lab warned that inequality in India had reached a historic high. “Broad-based public investments in health, education and nutrition are needed to enable the average Indian, and not just the elites, to meaningfully benefit from the ongoing wave of globalization,” it noted. The most significant loss of seats came from Uttar Pradesh, a key state in Indian elections due to its vast size. At the epicenter of Modi’s Hindu nationalist push, the state was previously considered a BJP stronghold. But it is also one of the poorest in India, with a persistently low human development index ranking and pervasive unemployment. In the east of the state is Varanasi, a pilgrimage site for Hindus and Modi’s home constituency. Over the past decade, the prime minister has doubled down on an infrastructure drive in the city, selling it as a model of development that combines religion, growth, and modernity. Modi retained his seat, albeit with a significantly lower margin than before. But Devex spoke to locals who said that while the investments have boosted tourism numbers and increased business opportunities, the gains have only benefitted a select few — with rural Indians and minorities increasingly left behind. “For us, there is no development,” said Babita Vishkarma, who lives in a village just outside Varanasi. She claims that her family’s caste means they have missed out on government programs that have delivered benefits to others in their village. “Modi doesn’t help the small people,” she said. Infrastructure investments fail to generate jobs Investment in high-profile infrastructure projects has been a cornerstone of Modi’s economic policy. Over the past three years, the government has spent over $100 billion per year on infrastructure, with the aim of transforming India into a “Viksit Bharat,” or developed India, by 2047. In Varanasi, a key part of this infrastructure drive has been the renovation of religious sites such as the Kashi Vishwanath Temple. In 2019, Modi launched a $100 million project designed to boost tourism and provide new facilities around the temple complex, which local businesses say has increased their profits. “The people of India are suffering. There are a lot of issues which are unaddressed, like employment, the breakdown of everyday survival systems.” --— Kavita Srivastava, national secretary, People’s Union for Civil Liberties “Many people are visiting here, and many tourists are coming,” said Shiva Gupta, a recent college graduate who owns a café inside the new temple complex. “Our GDP also got a little increased because of this temple,” he added. “The infrastructure boom in India is undeniable,” said Arvind Subramanian, former chief economic adviser to the government of India. Government investment in physical and digital infrastructure is essential for creating an environment in which businesses can flourish, he said. But the policy has yet to generate what economists term the “crowd-in” effect, where public spending stimulates private sector investment and generates new jobs. Gupta admitted that despite a college degree, he initially struggled to find a job in Varanasi, and received help to open the café from his father — who works for BJP. Recent data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy indicated that youth unemployment in India is increasing, reaching highs of 45.4% for some age groups, although the Indian government has disputed the accuracy of these figures. A tendency for the current government to favor a small handful of businesses has “taken a toll on the climate for investment,” explained Subramanian. Local private sector investment dropped to just under 20% of GDP in 2020-2021 from 27.5% in 2007-2008, and foreign investment has fallen to its lowest level since 2007, according to Reserve Bank of India data. While India’s economy is undoubtedly growing, said Subramanian, “the numbers are overstated. The hype exceeds the reality.” Away from the temple complex, others say they are struggling. “They are doing development, but developing a road will not feed our families,” said Ayaz, who asked to be identified by his first name only. He said his fabric business, in a predominantly Muslim neighborhood outside the city’s main tourism center, suffered under demonetization and the introduction of a goods and services tax — policy choices that “disproportionately affected small and medium enterprises,” Subramanian said. Still, Ayaz said he feels fortunate to have a family business; many of his friends have been less lucky, repeatedly applying for jobs at recruitment fairs without success. “The main issue is employment. If there is no employment, what will my family eat?” he said. “The government is not providing jobs.” Pervasive inequality in rural India Uneven growth was more visible in some of the rural areas outside Varanasi. Shortly after coming to power in 2014, Modi announced a new scheme under which members of Parliament should “adopt” a local village in their constituency, turning them into model villages for development. To that end, Modi has adopted eight villages on the outskirts of Varanasi; Devex visited three of them. Many residents reported seeing improvements since the adoption of their villages, with newly constructed houses, banks, toilets, and piped water. But others told Devex that not everyone has benefited equally from the development initiatives — and in particular, that lower-caste residents had missed out. Vishkarma, who lives in Jayapur, said that despite being repeatedly promised funding from a housing scheme which the family is eligible for, they had only received the first installment. “They think that because we are lower-caste, we won’t vote for them, so they don’t give us any benefits,” she said. Despite legal reforms to prohibit caste-based discrimination, caste remains a barrier to accessing entitlements for many Indians, said Aakar Patel, an activist and former head of Amnesty International India. “Every aspect of everyday life in India is divided and operates based on the caste system, where discrimination and violence is pervasive for Dalits.” Others have yet to benefit from the development at all, despite eligibility for various schemes. “Why should we keep hoping when we have applied twice and it didn’t come? Now we rely only on ourselves,” said Gayatri Devi, who lives with her husband in a one-room house constructed from mud and straw. The couple is forced to use a neighbor’s toilet and collect water from a communal tap. “People’s entitlements have been denied,” said Srivastava of the People’s Union for Civil Liberties, adding that the silencing of dissenting voices and shutdown of protests make it difficult for people to seek redress. “Every government denies [entitlements], but at least you have a democratic space to fight it and they listen to you. Here [under the current government], there was just nobody listening,” she said. For civil society organizations, renewed hope Activists have warned more broadly of a shrinking space for civil society in recent years, as well as what Patel calls a “culture of impunity for human rights violations” against lower castes and Muslims. NGOs drawing attention to inequality and human rights issues, such as Amnesty International, have faced punitive actions including having their bank accounts frozen or their licenses to receive foreign funding revoked. Under BJP, “Indian authorities have carried out an escalating crackdown on independent and critical voices,” said Patel, “chipping away at the rights to freedom of expression and opinion, association and peaceful assembly, religious belief.” The election saw a ramping up of anti-Muslim rhetoric, with Modi at one point seemingly referring to Muslims as “infiltrators.” As well as an appeal to Modi’s core voter base, Ayaz, sitting in his fabric shop in Varanasi, believes the divisive politics was an attempt to distract from other issues such as high unemployment. “This party depends on religion. They only talk about religion,” he said. “But Varanasi is for Muslims also.” Key allies have affirmed their continued support for Modi, and he was sworn in for a third term on Sunday. But without an outright majority and with regional allies seen as more sympathetic toward minorities, many are hopeful that the government may be forced to abandon planned policy reforms that would further erode civic rights. “If Modi returns to power, if Amit Shah returns as home minister, then of course, a certain regime will continue,” Srivastava said. “But if they have to collaborate with others, maybe the attack will not be so brazen.”