Scoop: UN sketches global map of mayhem from US aid freeze

The United States suspension of foreign assistance is having a “severe” or “moderate” impact on the budgets of nearly 20 United Nations agencies, according to a confidential U.N. survey on the Trump administration’s crackdown on foreign aid. This has undermined their ability to promote human rights, feed the needy, curb irregular migration from Latin America, support ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon, and weaken social cohesion while fueling extremism in the Middle East. The Feb.3 U.N. survey — which was prepared for an extraordinary meeting Monday of top U.N. development and humanitarian officials — provides the most detailed account yet of the impact the U.S. government foreign aid pause is having on the U.N.’s far-ranging operations. In it, nearly 20 U.N. agencies that acknowledged receiving stop-work orders — including the World Food Programme, UNICEF, and the World Health Organization — said they were already feeling the bite. Of those agencies that received letters, nearly half said the suspension was having a “severe impact” on their budget and operations, while 41% said it was having a “moderate impact” on their budgets. Only 12% said it was having a “minimal impact.” The International Organization for Migration and the U.N. Programme on HIV/AIDS, or UNAIDS, said it would have the biggest impact on operations. Likely operational implications include: • Interruption to programs, delay to work plans, and key deliverables. • Delay, reduction, or cancellation of missions, events, monitoring, quality assurance, and communications for showcasing results. • Staffing reductions and weakened operational capacity. • Financial implications for entities concerning indemnity and separation costs, as well as maintenance costs of paused projects. • Inability to pay partner organizations. U.N. agencies that were negatively affected by the freeze said the request to stop work related to “diversity, equity and inclusion” would impact their ability to fulfill mandates on the “promotion and protection of human rights, advancement of gender equality and elimination of discrimination” or “address and prevent gender-based violence” in emergency situations. The survey said that the pause was also hindering U.N. efforts to strengthen early warning systems for natural disasters and to develop standards for artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies. It also indicated that the U.S. retreat from foreign assistance carried “geopolitical and strategic implications” by creating a funding vacuum that could be filled by other powers. In Africa, the freeze was placing several sustainable development goals at risk, including the push to end hunger, improve health, and reduce inequality. In Arab states, it threatens “disruption of humanitarian operations, recovery and reconstruction, threatening lives, social services, and social cohesion, fueling the resurgence of extremism, particularly in Syria, Palestine, Lebanon and Yemen.” In Latin America and the Caribbean — which received some $1.95 billion from the U.S. in 2023 — about $750 million in U.S. commitments could be impacted. Some “30% of countries report potential cessation of essential service provision in the areas of migration and refugee response, health and healthcare protection and human rights, humanitarian assistance, and protection.” The survey said U.N. country representatives report that the freeze is already being felt in hardship posts in Afghanistan, Haiti, Palestine, Venezuela, and Yemen. There is a heightened “risk of slower economic recovery and governance stagnation” in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia, and Syria, all major recipients of U.S. assistance. There is also a risk of international financial institutions “reducing their footprint due to funding uncertainties” in Bangladesh, Côte d’Ivoire, Pakistan, and Tanzania. The survey broke down the impact of the freeze on critical countries: • Ethiopia: $153 million funding at risk, with impact on government partnerships, and the broader humanitarian, human rights, and health impacts. • Kenya: Impact will affect 580,000 refugees and 1.3 million people accessing HIV medication without alternative funding. In Niger, programs in the security sector, HIV/AID, trafficking, and health emergency preparedness are at risk. • Palestine, Lebanon: Delays will impact the ceasefire, lead to increased tensions, and endanger the U.N. and partners’ ability to manage risks and developments. • Yemen: Support to half a million people is under threat. • Syria: Impact stabilization postconflict reconstruction for the entire population, including returning — 1 million — refugees. • Bangladesh: The Rohingya Refugee Response is particularly vulnerable, with the U.S., as the largest donor, contributing $145 million primarily to food assistance and emergency response. • Ukraine: The country received $6.05 billion through the USAID program, including $3.9 billion in direct budget assistance. The government reported that the suspension affects critical sectors, including energy, veteran support, border infrastructure, education, health care, and cybersecurity. • Colombia, Mexico, and Central America: Cuts will lead to reduced assistance for refugees and migrants and reduced border security funding, diminishing the capacity of governments to manage the influx of asylum seekers, disrupting transit migration governance, and increasing the risks of irregular migration.