USAID business forecast: Q2 2020

In Q2 2020, forecast business opportunities and the value of these investments with the U.S. Agency for International Development have seen the largest increase in almost four years. A total of 242 opportunities are listed in the forecast for this quarter, worth a total of $13.2 billion — a 20% increase in opportunities and a 27% increase in value compared to Q1. Increased investment in programs supporting economic growth and trade, as well as global opportunities managed from Washington are responsible for this growth. The largest rise in the value of opportunities since 2015 was between Q2 and Q3 2016, which saw the value of opportunities increase by 50%. The spike comes as USAID released its 2019 progress report, which showed $17.2 billion awarded in 2019. “Acquisition awards accounted for over 30% of total dollars obligated, while cooperative agreements accounted for approximately 26%, and grants accounted for the remaining 42%,” Mark Walther, USAID director of the Office of Acquisition and Assistance, explained in a business forecast review conference call on March 13. Procurement is expected to expand in the coming year. Walther explained that new contracting and agreement officers are being recruited at USAID with up to 40 new foreign service contracting officers and three senior regional advisers supporting acquisitions and awards globally. Increases in global opportunities One-hundred-and-eight opportunities are listed as “new opportunities not previously forecast.” Five of these are global opportunities worth between $500 million and $1.5 billion — and are the primary reason for the increase in the value of opportunities this quarter. Worth $1.5 billion, the “Financing Self-Reliance and Market-Led Development” program is being led by the Office of Economic Policy to support blanket purchase agreements and contracting services, which will provide USAID units in Washington, D.C., and globally with access to “partnerships, technical assistance, capacity building, and analytic services” to support impact programming for economic impact. Worth $750 million, the “Transformative Trade and Investment in Africa” program, managed by the Bureau for Africa, will be a five-year program to support economic development in the region. It is anticipated to be released in September for solicitations. Forecast at $300 million, the Global Development Lab will be putting out a call for “Technical and Professional Support Services” to procure the procuring staff supporting “administrative, communication, analytical, professional, and technical expertise in various areas.” The “Global Architect-Engineer Services III IDIQ” and “Non-For-Profit (PNFP) Supply Chain - Commodities” programs, first listed in Q1, continue to be among the biggest forecast opportunities worth $1.5 billion combined. Regional analysis East Asia and the Pacific have again seen a record high in the value of forecast opportunities this quarter, worth $787 million. The Philippines has six new opportunities valued at $158 million — all supporting environmental and climate change initiatives in the country. New opportunities have been listed in Q2 for Cambodia, Indonesia, and Vietnam, including the $50 million “Improving Private Sector Competitiveness” program, which will assist Vietnam in building the competitiveness of small businesses, “including those led by women and ethnic minorities.” A record high was also recorded for Central Asia, which sees 25 opportunities this quarter valued at $1.2 billion. Eight-hundred million is focused in Afghanistan for health, education, and economic development initiatives, but new projects forecast for Q2 target Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkmenistan, including the $50 million “Feed the Future Tajikistan Sustainable Agriculture and Land Tenure” activity. Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia are also regions that have seen increases in the value of opportunities, but global opportunities managed from Washington have seen the largest spike, increasing 97% from Q1 to $5.1 billion in Q2. With the exception of Eastern Africa, all African regions and the Middle East have seen a decline in the value of opportunities since Q1 2020. The decline in Southern Africa sees Q2 2020 as the lowest value in opportunities for the region since 2015, totaling $410 million. Over three-quarters of this value is concentrated in Zambia. A second straight decline in the value of opportunities for West Africa sees opportunities nearing the lowest recorded since 2015. In Q2, 14 opportunities are listed providing $445 million in opportunities, with more than half focused in Senegal to support economic growth, governance, and food security. A boom for economic development A massive $5.2 billion is available for opportunities to support economic growth and trade programs in Q2, more than doubling the previous record — which was only last quarter. Economic growth and development is now the largest area of investment for USAID, more than double the $2.3 billion on offer for opportunities supporting global health and HIV programs. For economic growth and trade, $3.8 billion worth of new opportunities were listed in this quarter — including the “Financing Self-Reliance and Market-Led Development” program. Global programs are the focus, but new opportunities in this sector are also available specific to Armenia, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Jordan, Pakistan, Serbia, and Vietnam. Following zero projects last quarter, the U.S. Global Development Lab has six opportunities listed this quarter valued at a record high of $450 million including initiatives to bridge the gap between research and development impact and support partnerships with science, technology, and innovation. Management programs have also recorded new highs with 22 opportunities valued at $500 million this quarter — including a $50 million opportunity to provide staff and support services to the Bureau for Asia. Democracy, human rights, and governance is another sector increasing in focus with 56 opportunities valued at $1.6 billion in Q2 — after dropping to record lows in Q3 2019. Among the forecast opportunities in this sector is a $100 million program supporting youth resilience in Colombia, and a $25 million internet freedom program managed by the Bureau for Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance. Environmental and climate change programs, water and sanitation programs, as well education programs have also recorded an increase with a new category, ending extreme poverty, also appearing for the first time in the forecast this quarter. One opportunity is listed — a $150,000 opportunity supporting sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa. Programs supporting agriculture and food security reached a low of $368 million this quarter, almost $2.2 billion less than the record recorded in Q2 2017. Gender equality and women’s empowerment has seen a 64% drop in the value of forecast opportunities since Q1 2020, with only two opportunities listed this quarter — a $50 million initiative for Jordan and a $10 million initiative for prevention and response to gender-based violence. Forecast opportunities supporting crises and conflict declined 76% in value since Q1, and combined global health and HIV/AIDS programs have also dropped — by 54%. For further insights into the USAID business forecast, interact with our tableau visualization and delve into business opportunities by sector and region. For access to funding analysis, the latest funding updates, and opportunities from over 780 sources — in addition to exclusive Devex Pro news content — please get in touch to learn more about a Devex Funding membership.