USAID business forecast: Q1 2020

CANBERRA — The number of forecast business opportunities and investment value with the U.S. Agency for International Development continues to rise, according to the latest release of data for Q1 2020 opportunities. The latest snapshot lists 202 opportunities for this quarter valued at $10.4 billion — a 6% increase on the last release for Q3 2019. Compared to Q1 2019, the number and opportunities are well up, providing $2.5 billion more for organizations to do business with USAID in 2020. To help understand the opportunities and trends by region, sector, and opportunity type, Devex has analyzed the forecast opportunities with an updated tableau interactive for Q1 2020 — showing the changes trends between Q1 2015 and Q1 2020. New opportunities for the new year Of the forecast opportunities listed in Q1 2020, 96 are listed as new opportunities that were not previously forecast. In total, their estimated value is providing $4.6 billion. The single largest new opportunity is the “Global Architect-Engineer Services III IDIQ,” which aims to provide services throughout USAID for the procurement of infrastructure services — including infrastructure planning, engineering design, construction supervision, and other related support. Solicitations for this indefinite delivery indefinite quantity contract will begin in February. The second-largest new forecast opportunity is the $500 million “Non-For-Profit (PNFP) Supply Chain - Commodities” project, which aims to support local firms or vendors to provide a range of health services to the private not-for-profit sector in regions of Uganda where USAID works. This includes the delivery of services for malaria, HIV/AIDS, and family planning. The $300 million “Water Sanitation and Conservation Project” is the third-largest new opportunity. Supporting Lebanon, this project aims to enhance the conservation and protection of water resources within the country and is anticipated to be a five year project — with solicitations expected in January. There are several new opportunities are valued at $100 million, including the “Local Partner Service Delivery Activity” for Kenya and “Youth Resilience Activity” in Colombia. The bulk of new opportunities currently forecast for solicitation in 2020 are forecast as $25 million opportunities, such as the “Integrated Family, Household, and Community Health and Nutrition Activity” in Mali. Regional trends Record forecast opportunity values were recorded in the Middle East and North Africa this quarter, with 27 opportunities expected to deliver $2.3 billion worth of regional investment. This is more than double the average of opportunities in the region forecast at $1 billion, as well as more than double the forecast value of $1.1 billion in Q1 2019. New investment in Jordan and Lebanon is driving this growth. In addition to the “Water Sanitation and Conservation Project” in Lebanon, three additional opportunities are forecast in the region worth $100 million each supporting economic growth — the “Agriculture and Rural Empowerment” project, “Initiative to Deliver Essential Assistance and Services,” and the “Trade and Investment Facilitation” project. The investment in Lebanon comes after the impeachment hearings revealed that aid to Lebanon had been put on hold. In Jordan, five new opportunities will support economic growth, gender equality, and water and sanitation worth $210 million — bringing the total value of opportunities in this country to $935 million. Central Africa also showed record for forecast opportunities this quarter. A total of 18 opportunities are expected to deliver $1.3 billion in investment, with Uganda receiving 79% of the regional total. Six new opportunities have been forecast for Uganda this quarter and — including the “Non-For-Profit (PNFP) Supply Chain - Commodities” project — the total new investment is worth $725 million. Health programs dominate USAID priorities in the region. Two new opportunities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo supporting governance and regional biodiversity have added an additional $100 million in opportunities for Central Africa. Expanding upon last quarter, opportunities supporting East Asia and the Pacific have also reached a new record high — $605 million from 14 opportunities. Indonesia has seen $125 million in new forecast opportunities listed and $100 million for the Philippines. Environmental projects and governance dominate the sector focus of this region. Central Asia, Southern Africa, and West Africa have all seen declines in opportunities forecast compared to Q3 2019 — but none have seen record lows in investment. A boom in economic growth and trade Investment in economic growth and trade increased by 129% in the last quarter, reaching $2.5 billion in opportunities for Q1 2020 — the largest investment in this sector for three years. The increase was largely due to the forecast for the “Global Architect-Engineer Services III IDIQ,” and programs in Lebanon and Jordan. But Belarus, Kosovo, Pakistan, and Tanzania are among the other countries set to benefit from this boost in investment. Water and sanitation programs also recorded a large increase, jumping 106% from Q3 2019 to see investment reach $514 million — passing the sector average of $425 million. This increase has followed a period of low investment, but it is still below the peak of $1.2 billion recorded in Q3 2016. Lebanon and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are the biggest winners of increased investment in this sector. The new sector for HIV/AIDS added in Q3 2019 continues to see growth. Forecast opportunities in this sector are now worth $900 million with Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia as the regions set to benefit from a range of targeted health services. In comparison, other work supporting global health has seen a dramatic decline in forecast opportunities — a 43% drop from Q3 2019 to $2.3 billion. The decline saw global health drop below economic growth and trade to become the second-largest USAID investment sector for the first time in over three years. Still, there are 20 new forecast opportunities including programs to address antimicrobial resistance and accessible markets for health in Zambia. Agriculture and food security has also seen a 24% drop in the value of opportunities from Q3 2019. The four hundred and fifty-eight million in currently forecast in opportunities, nearing the low recorded in Q1 of 2019 and far from the peak of $2.6 billion in Q2 2017. The current focus of activities in this sector is based in Senegal where USAID is working on five projects including value chains and markets, nutrition, entrepreneurship, and smallholder agriculture. Only 5 out of 12 sectors saw an increase in investment this quarter, showing that forecast opportunities are being strategic in geographic focus more than sector focus. For further insights into the USAID business forecast, interact with our tableau visualization and delve into business opportunities by sector and region. For access to funding analysis, the latest funding updates, and opportunities from over 780 sources — in addition to exclusive Devex Pro news content — please get in touch to learn more about a Devex Funding membership.