USAID business forecast: Q3 2019

CANBERRA — USAID’s Q3 2019 business forecast has seen a rise in the year-on-year value of the forecast opportunities after a downward trend since the beginning of 2018. In total, 203 opportunities have been listed this quarter — a year-on-year increase from 185 opportunities in Q3 2018, increasing the upward trend in opportunities identified last quarter. But while last quarter saw the value of opportunities continue to decline year-on-year, this quarter sees the value of opportunities on the rise. Forecast opportunities for Q3 2019 are valued at a total of $9.8 billion. At the same time in 2018, opportunities worth $8.7 billion were forecast — a 13% increase. The opportunities come at a time when the U.S. Agency for International Development business call, held in Washington, D.C., on July 12, explained plans to continue improving spending efficiencies and support countries in their “journey to self-reliance.” To understand the biggest opportunities and trends by region, sector, and opportunity type, Devex has analyzed the forecast opportunities with an updated Tableau interactive for Q3 2019 showing the changes trends since Q1 2015. Opportunities supporting new USAID partnerships A total of 90 of the forecast opportunities are listed as new opportunities not previously forecast, providing $3.3 billion in business value to business partners. Two of these opportunities are for $300 million — MOMENTUM APS Round 3 and round two of the New Partnerships Initiative for global health prosper APS. Round 3 of MOMENTUM — Moving Integrated, Quality Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health and Family Planning Services to Scale — is being managed by the Office of Population and Reproductive Health as part of the previously announced $750 million opportunity that will offer multiple awards with the aim of strengthening the capacity of local organizations and host-country institutions to introduce, deliver, scale up, and sustain evidence to support family planning and health solutions. Solicitations for various rounds will be available through grants.gov. NPI Global Health APS is part of a new initiative that aims to support USAID Administrator Mark Green’s focus on supporting self-reliance within donor countries. NPI awards aim to engage diverse partners working on the ground within countries to build the capacity and mentor local partners. This specific program within NPI will focus on capacity building within the health sector through subawards, mentoring of new and underutilized partners, and is being managed by the Office of the Assistant Administrator. The NPI program is further supported by the broader $750 million global health prosper activity, two $300 million NPI activities supporting community health networks and expand health partnerships, and the $50 million NPI activity supporting conflict prevention and recovery. Regional trends Opportunities supporting East Asia and the Pacific have been in decline since Q1 2018. But with renewed interest in the region, this quarter has seen opportunities almost double from last quarter to reach $526 million — with a key focus on the development of the energy sector and opportunities for the private sector. The “Papua New Guinea Electrification Activity” is a $100 million opportunity being implemented from the Philippines office and will require the business partner to provide technical assistance supporting off-grid electrification models and increased private sector investment. The implementing partner will be working closely with PNG Power Limited, the PNG government, and other donor partners. Improved energy sector policies, planning, and private sector investment will also be supported through the $50 million “Energy Program in Indonesia” and $50 million “Energy Secure Philippines” program. Additional new investments will see a focus on biodiversity and greenhouse gas reduction in Indonesia and education and skills in the Philippines. After a boost in opportunities last quarter, investment has continued to rise in Central Africa with a total of $951 million in forecast opportunities this quarter. New opportunities include $50 million awards supporting basic education in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and social and behavioral change in Uganda. And for Central Asia, a new peak in forecast opportunities was reached as USAID work forecast for the region reached $1.1 billion from 12 opportunities — with 10 targeting initiatives in Afghanistan. At the opposite end, new lows have also been recorded. Opportunities forecast in East Africa this quarter totalled $129 million, dropping 69% on forecast opportunities last quarter. In Latin America and the Caribbean, forecast opportunities are $155 million, a 64% reduction. By sector, health continues to dominate Global health is the single largest sector by opportunity value this quarter, accounting for 42% of the forecast value through 46 activities. But while they have a large share of the value, their total forecast opportunities rose less than 2% from last quarter. This is due to the creation of a new sector in the business forecast this quarter for HIV/AIDS. Four activities are listed under this new category — a $100 million HIV prevention program for Zambia, two $25 million activities supporting children’s health in Nigeria and Zambia, and a $10 million activity supporting hazardous waste disposal in Uganda. Despite this new category, there are opportunities supporting USAID initiatives in HIV/AIDs that are listed under global health including a $100 million HIV control program for Zambia and $25 million program supporting HIV programs within the prison system in Tanzania. The single largest sector increase was seen this quarter for activities supporting gender equality and women’s empowerment. A total of six opportunities have seen the value of opportunities grow to $185 million — a new record for the sector and an increase of 242% from last quarter. This growth was thanks to three new initiatives supporting gender equality in Afghanistan — the $50 million “Women in the Economy II” program, $25 million “Counter-Trafficking in Persons” program, and $25 million “Women’s Empowerment and Civil Society” program. Business call insights The Q3 business call provided further insights into where USAID is at with obligations this fiscal year, as well as its plans for further changes to its programs. Fiscal year to date, USAID has obligated $9.91 billion, 9,731 acquisition, and 3,804 assistance actions, accounting for $6.4 billion. An additional $113.6 million has been obligated through 88 interagency agreements. “Just in comparison, we’ve had roughly 1,000 fewer actions compared to the same period last year, the agency has obligated $64.6 million more,” Mark Walther, acting director of USAID’s Office of Acquisition and Assistance, said. Best-in-class, or BIC, spend — which aims to utilize whole-of-government preferred solutions as part of procurements and activities — has increased 25% from last quarter, to reach $98.2 million for the fiscal year. Spend Under Management, or SUM, which aims to target better management and activities within government organizations for better procurement, has also increased by 25%, reaching $2 billion for the fiscal year to date. “USAID continues to track on attaining the fiscal year goals,” Walther said. “For BIC adoption, the goal is 40% of its addressable spend and for SUM it is 70% of spend.” But despite these government spending targets, staff explained that activities supporting USAID priorities in supporting a partner’s journey to self-reliance will always prevail. The need to support self-reliance is also going through changes, according to the call, with altered definitions on what makes a partner “local” through NPI. “The New Partnerships Initiative effort includes current and forthcoming solicitations to engage new and underutilized, local and locally established, partners, and envisions important roles for our traditional partners in building capacity and mentoring those new and local partners,” Randy Tift, senior adviser in USAID’s Office of Acquisition and Assistance, explained. With these changes, some activities supporting the initiative have seen definitions altered to create a broader definition of local partners, inviting applications from both local entities and U.S. or international groups that meet basic standards for operating locally — opening the door to more business opportunities for traditional USAID partners based within recipient countries. For further insights into the USAID business forecast, interact with our Tableau visualization for Q3 2019, and delve into business opportunities by sector and region.