USAID business forecast: Q2 2019

CANBERRA — The U.S. government shutdown earlier this year impacted timelines and schedules of business opportunities, according to the U.S. Agency for International Development in its second quarter business forecast call on March 21. In building back to business as usual, it is prioritizing “the most immediate needs.” “There is clearly robust activities going forward since that time, and we expect continual increases to workload and updating opportunities,” USAID explained in its Q&A document. “In addition to prioritizing immediate funding needs and administrative approvals, there has been a good number of upcoming competitive actions moving through the SOAR [“Senior Obligation Alignment Review”] review process over the last several weeks,” the Q&A document continued. Formerly known as the “Acquisition and Assistance, Review and Approval Document,” SOAR provides the guidelines and approval process for planned awards at or above $25 million in total estimated cost. The impact of the activity has seen an increase in business opportunities forecast this quarter. A total of 89 opportunities are listed as new opportunities not previously forecast, up from 68 last quarter and 83 in Q2 2018. In total, 216 opportunities have been listed — a year on year increase from 206 opportunities in Q2 2018. It is a marked difference from previous quarters that have seen declining opportunities and forecast values. But the overall value of opportunities is still facing a downward trend. This quarter forecast opportunities are valued at a total of $9.3 billion dollars. At the same time in 2018, opportunities worth $10.9 billion were forecast. For existing and prospective business partners of USAID, the expected push means it is important to plan and prepare for opportunities that will be moving into the request for application and proposal stage in the coming months. Devex has analyzed the biggest opportunities and trends by region, sector, and opportunity type, with our updated tableau interactive for Q2 2019 showing the changes trends since Q1 2015. Insights into new opportunities: Afghanistan Last quarter, the forecast revealed big opportunities in Afghanistan — including the Air Export Program in Afghanistan, a $100 million opportunity to provide technical assistance, transactional support, and other services to support improved export opportunities through major Afghan-international airports. The focus on Afghanistan was seen again this quarter with new opportunities — all with a health focus. The Urban Health Initiative is a $300 million and five-year initiative to improve health outcomes for vulnerable urban populations. Also new is the National Technical Assistance Program — also valued at $300 million over five years. This opportunity aims to improve health outcomes through performance management and better governance. On the smaller end of the scale, the Enhanced Data Demand and Use initiative, valued at $25 million, aims to ensure high quality and current data is accessible, analyzed, and available for decision-making by the Afghan government and partner organizations in the health space. All new opportunities for Afghanistan are expected to be seeking solicitations at the end of June for a January 2020 award date. The single largest opportunity forecast is a $750 million global opportunity managed by the USAID Office of Population and Reproductive Health, called MOMENTUM — Moving Integrated, Quality Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health and Family Planning Services to Scale. This opportunity is a suite of multiple awards that focus on strengthening the capacity of local organizations and host-country institutions to introduce, deliver, scale-up, and sustain evidence to support family planning and health solutions. The anticipated award date for this opportunity is August 2018. Down the scale of value, five opportunities not previously listed are valued at nearly $100 million, such as an initiative in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to promote women’s empowerment in a range of areas including emergency responses. A total of 13 opportunities are valued at $50 million, 37 are valued at $25 million, with the remainder valued at $10 million or less. Opportunities by region: MENA By value of opportunities, six regions have benefited from an increase in opportunities since the forecast last quarter. North Africa and the Middle East, which saw the sharpest rise last quarter, have again seen opportunity values rising. A total of $1.9 billion in opportunities are available this quarter, rising by $800 million quarter on quarter — a 72 percent increase. Initiatives supporting crises and conflicts as well as economic growth and trade are among the key sectors in the region. Among the new opportunities are the USAID/Jordan Economic Reform Activity, a $300 million initiative to “foster self-reliance and capacity development of government and private sector counterparts” as part of economic reform. In Central Africa, a $411 million increase in the value of opportunities since Q1 2019 has seen opportunities surpassing the time series average of $598 million for the first time since Q3 2017. A $100 million HIV/AIDS initiative in Uganda is among the leading opportunities forecast for the region. In Central Asia, the value of opportunities has risen by 49 percent since last quarter and is another growing area of opportunities. Eastern Africa, Eastern Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean are other areas that have seen slight increases — but opportunities in all three remain below their time series average values. Opportunities in East Asia and the Pacific have been declining each quarter since the beginning of 2018 and continued falling again this quarter. A total of 17 opportunities were forecast in the region this quarter for a total of $268.5 million, with 78 percent of the total value concentrated in the Philippines. Opportunities by sector: Management While last quarter saw declines in the value of opportunity in all but three sectors, this quarter has seen a rise in all — including for the U.S. Global Development Lab, which had no opportunities last quarter. This quarter, the lab forecast the acquisition of GIS software valued up to $500,000. Compared to the time series average for each sector, only one is performing above the average: management. Since the Q4 2015, the average forecast opportunity for this sector has been $281.7 million. This quarter, 25 opportunities provide $342.6 million to the sector — an increase of 75 percent from the first quarter. New opportunities within the management sector include Evaluation, assessment and analysis in Eastern Africa, a $50 million opportunity to support education and learning, and a $25 million initiative in the Philippines to support collaboration, learning and adaption. Opportunities in global health are just shy of their average $4,168.6 million. This quarter, 51 opportunities totaled the value of opportunities at $4,018.2 million. Small business opportunities Small business utilization, has been a focus area for USAID procurement reform and will continue to be an important area of focus over the coming year. For this quarter, a total of 14 opportunities are confirmed as small business set-asides. An institute support services program for Uganda is a $10 million opportunity specifically for a disadvantaged small business. Two $50 million opportunities are set-aside entirely for small businesses — Evaluation, Assessment and Analysis in Eastern Africa and the USAID/Jordan Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Activity, both mentioned previously. Partial small business set-asides are available for two $300 million projects based in Jordan — the USAID/Jordan Economic Reform Activity and the Building Resilient and Inclusive Communities in Conflict initiative. Further opportunities for small businesses are still to be determined. For further insights into the USAID business forecast, interact with our tableau visualization for Q2 2019 and delve into business opportunities by sector and region.