USAID business forecast: Q3 2020

New opportunities aimed at simplifying and streamlining the U.S. Agency for International Development procurement over the next decade have resulted in a massive spike in the value of forecast business opportunities with the agency. The data for Q3 2020 lists 225 forecast opportunities worth $30.1 billion — a 128% increase in the value of opportunities forecast in Q2. This is despite a 7% decline in the number of opportunities. Health programs, in particular, have benefited from the new opportunities, supporting the agency in flexibly responding to changing health needs, once again shifting to the focus of USAID’s development activities on global health. Q3 2020 sees the release of four new opportunities with a value in excess of $2 billion implemented by the Office of the Assistant Administrator within USAID’s Bureau for Global Health — responsible for accelerating the development, introduction, and scale-up of global health interventions. These opportunities seek suppliers to coordinate a range of procurements related to areas of health delivery — including management activities, strategic sourcing, demand planning, and delivery — for a 10-year period between 2021 and 2031. A $4.6 billion procurement service agent for HIV, $3.2 billion procurement service agent for malaria, $2.5 billion for procurement service agency for diagnostics, and $2.5 billion for a next-generation global health supply chain suite of programs are among the new opportunities under this procurement streamlining strategy that will enable USAID to be flexible to changing health needs over the coming decade. Last quarter the largest listed opportunity was a $1.5 billion award for financing self-reliance and market-led development, which led the shift for a focus on economic growth and trade within USAID business opportunities. In addition to the $2 billion-plus opportunities this quarter, in-country logistics and family planning, maternal and child health, nutrition, and other health elements are also part of this approach, providing business opportunities both valued at $1.5 billion. These opportunities under the implementation of the Office of Assistant Administrator were announced early in Q3 with the value of forecast opportunities for HIV, malaria, and family planning increasing as the quarter — and global health situation — progressed. Outside of health, Programming for Peacebuilding and Prevention is a $1 billion opportunity to provide USAID with services to broadly target conflict and violence over the next five years. Regional trends The billion-dollar-plus opportunities listed in the Q3 forecast will be implemented from Washington, making these global initiatives supporting the broader USAID agenda. And this large focus on centralized activities has resulted in just three regions seeing a boost to the value of opportunities targeting them specifically. Eastern Africa has seen the largest increase, with the value of opportunities increasing 134% from Q2. A total of 22 activities are listed this quarter, providing $1.3 billion in opportunities targeting this region — with health the priority sector. The $300 million comprehensive client-centered health program focused on Tanzania is the largest new opportunity in this region, which will provide HIV, tuberculosis, and family planning services over a five year period. WASH, reproductive health, and client-focused services are among other new opportunities for Tanzania. HIV, reproductive health, nutrition, and WASH are also a focus in Kenya as part of a new $100 million opportunity, with additional programs targeting capacity building. West Africa has also seen a boost in the value of opportunities listed this quarter, with 23 valued at $680.8 million. Among the new programs targeting Ghana, Liberia, Mali, and Nigeria, health deliverables are a priority, but democracy, human rights, and governance are more of the focus for USAID in this region. Latin America and the Caribbean is the final region to see an increase in the value of forecast opportunities, continuing an upward trend reported seen since Q1 2020. A total of 10 forecast activities aim to see an investment of $453.9 million in the region, with the focus of six activities in Colombia. This quarter sees an additional opportunity for Colombia targeting gender equality, but Haiti is also a new focus in the region with one opportunity targeting food security. Central Asia has seen the largest decline in the value of opportunities, dropping 57%, followed by Central Africa, dropping 36%, and Eastern Europe, dropping 35%. Health wins. What about other sectors? Global health and HIV/AIDS programs combined have 48 opportunities valued at $20 billion this quarter — accounting for over two-thirds of the entire value of opportunities this quarter. Despite this massive sectoral focus, there are still increased funding opportunities available in a number of sectors. Working in crises and conflict has seen an increase of almost $1 billion thanks to the global peacebuilding and prevention program. Ending extreme poverty is receiving a $50 million boost through new research focused on Africa, gender equality and women’s empowerment received a $40 million boost thanks to the new program based in Colombia, and democracy, human rights, and governance has also seen a slight boost. Environment and global climate change programs have seen a drop in focus after funding was on the rise, with 15 programs providing $483.9 million worth of investment in forecast opportunities — but four opportunities are now targeting East Asia and the Pacific, including a $25 million opportunity targeting wildlife trafficking in Vietnam. A big loss was also recorded for the U.S. Global Development Lab with a $300 million forecast opportunity announced in Q2 for technical and professional support services listed as canceled this quarter. USAID informed business partners in the call that a decision will be made late in the financial year 2021 whether the requirement will be reposted. Economic growth and trade, the largest focal sector for USAID last quarter, has seen a 9% drop in the value of opportunities — but this still leaves 35 activities valued at $4.7 billion forecast in future opportunities. Trends for small and underutilized businesses Eight opportunities in the Q3 forecast are total set-asides for small business, with two $50 million opportunities — a business growth program and program focusing on women’s economic empowerment and leadership, both based in Jordan. One opportunity is a set-aside for a woman-owned small business for monitoring and evaluation in Nepal, while a $1 billion opportunity for the procurement of infrastructure services has a partial small business set-aside. Small business opportunities for 20 listed activities are still to be determined. But all have assisted USAID being on track to exceed its target of 12% of awards for the 2020 financial year, as it did for the 2019 financial year. “The acquisition data indicated USAID awarded approximately $784 million to small businesses out of a total portfolio of $5.4 billion in prime contracts,” Teneshia Alston, acting deputy director of the Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization, explained in the Q3 business call. “This translates to approximately 14.6% of prime awards, which exceeded our FY 2019 small business goal of 12.5%.” Alston explained that reforms targeting increasing the number of small and underutilized businesses as suppliers, to expand the USAID supplier base, are now being supported by all USAID missions with acquisition obligations exceeding $5 million annually — with the exception of two — as part of the Small Business Goaling Program. Small business outreach activities continue to be planned despite COVID-19, while virtual outreach events will take place for service-disabled veteran-owned small businesses and underutilized businesses during September and October, Alston said. Opportunities supporting COVID-19 With COVID-19 being at the forefront of development programming over the past quarter, forecast requirements are also seeing COVID-19 appear as part of opportunity objectives. The Q3 business call provided insights into how further opportunities will be designed to respond to the pandemic. Mark Walther, director at the Office of Acquisition and Assistance, explaining that “cross-cutting collaboration” will be important moving forward in program design and monitoring and evaluation. In the short-term, supporting USAID’s mission to be flexible in program operations in response to the pandemic is also essential. Walther warned that timelines within the forecast may need to change to accommodate changing needs. The Q3 2020 forecast has only three new opportunities specific to the pandemic. The NPI GH COVID-19 Round, valued at $300 million, will provide awards in support of interventions “that will build upon and expand USAID’s efforts to leverage the roles of communities” in the implementation of COVID-19 preparedness and responses. The release date for solicitations is the end of this month. Enhancing WASH Activity is a $50 million opportunity based in Ghana which aims to increase access to sustainable WASH services in the northern regions of the country — an essential service during the COVID-19 response. Also based in Ghana, the $50 million USAID Accelerating Social and Behavior Change activity aims to shift health behaviors and practices for improved health outcomes, including for COVID-19. An open call for concept notes designed to support the global response to the pandemic by the USAID COVID-19 Task Force, which closed on July 6, has received hundreds of responses from current, underutilized, and potentially new partners, but this is yet to result in new opportunities. “To date the Agency has not yet obligated funding to a specific unsolicited concept or application received by the COVID-19 Task Force,” Walther explained. <div class='tableauPlaceholder' id='viz1603123271258' style='position: relative'><noscript><a href='#'><img alt=' ' src='https:&#47;&#47;public.tableau.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;US&#47;USAID-Forecast&#47;USAID_Forecast_main&#47;1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class='tableauViz' style='display:none;'><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='embed_code_version' value='3' /> <param name='path' value='views&#47;USAID-Forecast&#47;USAID_Forecast_main?:embed=y&amp;:display_count=no&amp;:toolbar=no' /> <param name='toolbar' value='no' /><param name='static_image' value='https:&#47;&#47;public.tableau.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;US&#47;USAID-Forecast&#47;USAID_Forecast_main&#47;1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /></object></div> <script type='text/javascript'> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1603123271258'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='1200px';vizElement.style.height='1200px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script> USAID Business Forecast Q3 FY 2020. 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