USAID business forecast: Q3 2021

Despite a slight drop in the number and value of business opportunities with the U.S. Agency for International Development from the previous quarter, the forecast for Q3 2021 continues to show year-on-year growth thanks to a continued focus on health programs. A total of 263 opportunities worth $32.7 billion are listed in the Q3 2021 forecast, a 9% increase from Q3 2020. Previously forecast coordinated procurement opportunities supporting the Bureau for Global Health’s work over the next decade — including a procurement service agent for HIV valued at $4.6 billion — remain the largest valued opportunities driving the record values. But new opportunities and trends are still emerging in the forecast data. Trends by sector In global health, the focus is on global initiatives, with new projects including a $500 million private sector health program. For country specific initiatives, Ethiopia has seen an increased focus. Four new programs, each valued at $50 million ,have been announced supporting pastoral primary health care, health care quality, behavioral change, and supply chains. Another $25 million is being directed toward public health emergency management. For Ethiopia, this is a record investment in health initiatives, with the forecast listing $359.9 million from a total of nine opportunities — 26% higher than the previous record of $285 million in Q2 2016. But compared to last quarter, the number and value of opportunities have declined. The largest growth by sector is in opportunities supporting program management and delivery. A total of 21 opportunities valued at $2.1 billion are available in “management” — a 46% increase in the value of opportunities from Q2 2021. New opportunities in this space include a 10-year, $500 million program for cyber security and information assurance support; a $100 million program for research and institutions support with the Africa Bureau, and a $50 million opportunity to support the Management Bureau Office of Acquisition and Assistance. Only one other sector has seen growth in value from Q2 2021. Education recorded a $100 million increase in the value of forecast opportunities thanks to two $50 million opportunities — a $50 million teacher preparation initiative for Egypt, and an early learning project for Nepal. A 50% decline in the value of HIV/Aids opportunities was the largest recorded decline from Q2 2021 followed by a 29% decline in opportunities supporting environment and global climate change, and a 23% decline in water and sanitation. Agriculture and food security continued its downward trajectory, while economic growth and trade dropped from a peak of $5.2 billion in Q2 2020 to $1.4 billion this quarter. Trends by region According to USAID, the bulk of funds from current and upcoming opportunities are expected to be obligated centrally. “The majority of [category management] contract dollars will be obligated in Washington, due to the nature of the work in Washington versus the missions,” Deb Broderick, deputy director at the Bureau for Management, Office of Acquisition and Assistance, explained at the Q3 2021 business call. Only two regions this quarter have recorded an increase in the value of forecast opportunities. Central Asia has seen an increase from $573.4 million in Q2 2021 to $808.8 million in Q3 2021 due to an increased focus on Afghanistan. Among the new opportunities is a $100 million “community-based jobs for peace” initiative, which aims to “support enterprise growth in rural and peri-urban areas in Afghanistan by addressing key constraints that inhibit their productivity, their ability to hire more people, and their linkages to major market centers.” An additional $100 million is focused on strengthening Afghan local administration and municipalities to support the development of institutions that are “effective, responsive, democratic, gender sensitive, transparent, accountable, and capable of responding to the service delivery needs of their 25 constituents.” Latin America and the Caribbean is the second region recording growth, with 25 opportunities seeing forecast investment totaling $1.25 billion — just short of the record $1.29 billion recorded in Q3 2016. A focus on crime and violence prevention in El Salvador is the largest new opportunity, an activity that aims to “improve real and perceived citizen security and reductions in homicides.” While other regions have seen declines, there still remains a regional focus for USAID projects in Africa — particularly in eastern and central Africa. Try out Devex Pro Funding today with a free 5-day trial, and explore funding opportunities from over 850+ sources in addition to our analysis and news content.