What is the COP Presidencies Troika and why does it matter?

The United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, and Brazil, as presidencies of the U.N. climate summits COP 28, COP 29, and COP 30, respectively, formally launched the COP Presidencies Troika in February. What does this global partnership mean, and how will it work to keep the 1.5 degrees Celsius climate goal within reach? The troika — or group of three — was initiated at COP 28 in December 2023 and is the first time in almost three decades of U.N. Climate Change Conferences of the Parties that three presidencies have decided to join forces and work actively together. Historically, there have been instances where the outgoing presidency and the incoming one have worked closely on overlapping issues. Peru’s COP 20 prepared the Paris Agreement that was finally agreed in France in 2015 at COP 21, and Scotland’s COP 26 rescued the disputed rulebook for Article 6 on carbon markets that Spain had failed to achieve in 2019 at COP 25. Now, this troika “ensures continuity and enhanced cooperation across the presidencies, maintaining momentum on key climate actions, particularly the next round of nationally determined contributions,” COP 29 President-Designate Mukhtar Babayev told Devex. “Why have somebody not thought about having a troika of the COPs before? Now that we are working together, it is clear that it is very important to have a troika,” Ana Toni, national secretary for climate change at Brazil’s Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change, said to Devex. With climate finance and new nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, as key cross-cutting negotiating issues of these three COPs, the presidencies need to achieve ambitious results in the coming conferences. “The three presidencies are navigating arguably the most critical three years in the decisive decade to limit global warming below 1.5 degrees C,” Andreas Sieber, associate director of global policy and campaigns at 350.org, explained. So how did the COP Presidencies Troika come about and what are the key areas it aims to make a difference on? How the Troika emerged The COP Presidencies Troika took shape at COP 28 as a result of a proposal made by Brazil: Mission 1.5, an initiative that sought the commitment of countries to “keep the 1.5°C alive” based on science, common but differentiated responsibilities, and the consequent financial support that developing countries require. In its agenda item on Mission 1.5, Brazil stated: “‘Mission 1.5’ can pave the way from COP28 to COP30.” “I think the Troika’s proposal was a good idea: not to see the COPs as photographs, but as a film of ambition that began in Dubai, goes through Baku, and ends in Brazil,” Claudio Angelo, communication and climate policy coordinator at Observatório do Clima, said. Within the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, an informal precedent can be found in the Troika Joint Statement of 2013 in which Poland, Peru, and France communicated how each presidency was going to work and collaborate to achieve the climate agreement signed in Paris. Outside the UNFCCC environment, there is a more formal troika precedent: The Group of 20 top world economies. Since 2002, the G20 has worked with a troika system as a framework to guide its process. It is a trio of members made up of the current, previous, and next G20 presidencies. The country holding the presidency coordinates the group, while the other two support it to ensure the continuity of the agenda and the preparation for the annual summit. Yet while the G20 troika was created and agreed upon as an executive body, and was even formalized in 2011, the climate COP troika is something mentioned only between COP 28, COP 29, and COP 30, not as a permanent body. “This is an innovation in the climate convention, and no one even knows whether it will be followed by Azerbaijan, Brazil and Australia”, Angelo stressed. The lack of a formal mandate is what, for Angelo, raises the greatest concern or weakness of the proposal: “The idea is great, the implementation not so much. What will this Troika actually do?” What the climate troika aims to do “The role of the Troika is the implementation of the UAE Consensus,” Brazil’s Toni said, referring to the COP 28 outcomes package. She added that the troika chose to focus its joint work on some specific action points, the main one being raising the ambition of climate action to limit global warming below 1.5 C. The troika is now united under the “Roadmap to Mission 1.5ºC,” and focused on the next round of NDCs that countries are expected to present by Feb. 10, 2025. The troika is pushing for these to be ambitious enough to limit global warming below 1.5 C. According to the Climate Action Tracker, if countries comply with the NDCs submitted so far, global warming would be between 2 C and 3 C. “The Troika’s mission is to follow that roadmap, a plan to simulate ambition and ensure that the global community remains aligned with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, thus preventing severe climate consequences,” Babayev said. In order to achieve this, targeted activities are mentioned in various official communications, such as hosting high-level meetings at international events and working with political platforms such as the G20. The three presidencies have also asked countries to provide early submissions of high-ambition NDCs, as reiterated in their last letter to parties. They have even made a distinction in the request that developed countries' plans should include ambition in finance, technology, and capacity-building resources for developing countries. For some observers, the fact that the troika is not proposing anything more binding than that countries raise their climate ambition is an issue. The lack of clarity that has been reported on what it means to be aligned to Mission 1.5 is problematic for Observatório do Clima’s Angelo: “They say there is no universally accepted criterion for what a 1.5 degrees C compatible NDC is. And there is a criterion, it is called Global Stocktake.” “I think the Troika becomes less useful when it starts discussing ambition and says it will not give recommendations because everything is nationally determined,” he explained. Another question raised is: Why are these troika countries not leading by example first with ambitious NDCs? (Not) leading by example The NDC presented so far by the UAE has been rated by the Climate Action Tracker as “critically insufficient” to be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 C, while Brazil’s is rated “insufficient.” There isn’t a rating yet for Azerbaijan’s NDC. “As COP presidents, the UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil must show more than cosmetic improvements,” 350.org’s Sieber said. “They must mention in their climate commitments real plans to phase-out fossil fuels and how they will tackle their emissions by scaling up renewable energy projects that benefit people over profits.” In 2021, the total energy supply of the UAE came from fossil fuels. In that year, Brazil was the tenth exporter of crude oil and the first in the Latin American region. In Azerbaijan, oil and gas make up more than 90% of its exports. At the first global stocktake, concluded at COP 28, and after difficult negotiations, the world agreed to contribute to transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems to achieve net zero by 2050. Now the question is how that is going to be implemented. Yet an investigation by Global Witness revealed how COP 28 President Sultan Al Jaber used the conference’s meetings to pursue oil and gas deals. In April, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev said that the country “is largely investing in increasing” its gas production to respond to European Union market demand. In June, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defended an oil exploration project in the name of “not wasting an opportunity to make the country grow.” “We are concerned about the fact that the three COP presidencies have been clear about their plans to expand fossil fuels at the same time they are saying that they will provide 1.5 aligned NDCs,” Tracy Carty, global climate politics expert at Greenpeace International, said. “We are concerned about 1.5 washing of NDCs,” she added, referring to the idea that these countries may present new plans that are theoretically ambitious but which do not in fact represent a real change in their energy systems. For that not to happen, Angelo would like to see the three countries proposing ambitious NDCs in November of this year, not in February of the next one. “The UAE and Azerbaijan are petrostate[s] … Nonetheless they must transition. Brazil has a great opportunity to step up. It must show the world it can also lead the renewable energy transition with bold actions,” Sieber said. The role of the troika on finance At COP 29, countries must agree on a new global climate finance goal, or NCQG, meaning this falls under the Azerbaijan presidency. Finance is mentioned in the troika communications as a responsibility for developed countries, but not as one of the negotiating topics on which the troika will focus their joint work — the responsibility to finalize negotiations is Azerbaijan’s remit. “The COP29 Presidency’s top negotiating priority is agreeing [on] a fair and ambitious NCQG adequate to the urgency and scale of the problem, taking into account the needs and priorities of developing countries,” Babayev said. Whether the NCQG is agreed upon or not, its level of ambition will be decisive for the subsequent presentation of new NDCs. “For those countries that need support, the signal and the confidence in the assurances the NCQG has the potential to build are really critical. Countries need to know that finance is going to be available to support those countries that need it,” Greenpeace’s Carty said. She added that among civil society, the anticipation is that the NCQG may not go far enough, hence the importance of what happens and is agreed on at the following COPs. Brazil is aware of that, as Toni said: “We understand totally that the success of COP 29 is vital for the success of COP 30.” What’s next, before COP 29? With less than two months to go until the start of COP 29, there will be a preliminary instance of political momentum for climate action: the general debate of the 79th U.N. General Assembly in New York next week. While there were expectations that the troika countries might use this as an opportunity to announce their new NDCs, Brazil’s Toni told Devex: “No. There was never an agreement under the Troika that we would present anything at the U.N. None of us are planning to bring anything to the UNGA.” Among the side events in New York, the COP 28 and COP 29 presidencies are co-organizing the Global Renewables Summit with other governments and agencies. This two-day event, from Sept. 23-24, will bring together public and private sector representatives to discuss the opportunities and challenges of tripling renewable energy by 2030, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies. In the meantime, some observers are looking closely at whether any country will take the first step and respond to the troika's call to present an updated NDC that aligns with the 1.5 C Paris Agreement goal.