Opinion: Why the COP Troika is key to achieving the 1.5ºC goal

The COP Presidencies Troika could prove one of the most important high-level global partnerships to keep the 1.5 degrees Celsius climate goal within reach. Mandated by the historic UAE Consensus, it binds the UAE presidency of the 28th U.N. Climate Change Conference of the Parties with the next two COP presidencies — Azerbaijan and Brazil — to drive ambitious collective climate action and to foster international cooperation. The COP Presidencies Troika is united under the “Roadmap to Mission 1.5ºC,” which aims to enhance action and implementation during this critical decade. At the core of this mission are nationally determined contributions, or NDCs. These are countries’ self-defined national climate pledges under the Paris Agreement and the main vehicle for nations to collectively confront the global climate crisis. The next round of NDCs is due in February 2025, ahead of COP 30 in Brazil. These frameworks are one of the most important benchmarks to gauge whether we can achieve a course correction in global climate action. The development of new NDCs will be based on the discussions of high-level meetings, such as the recent 15th Petersberg Climate Dialogue, the U.N. General Assembly in September, and November’s COP 29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. “The sheer magnitude of the climate crisis requires the consideration of extreme measures.” --— At the Troika’s launch, COP 28 President Sultan Al Jaber highlighted that U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has given his full support of the COP Presidencies Troika, with steps being taken to mobilize the entire U.N. system to help drive the next generation of NDCs. All parties and stakeholders must work together to raise ambition and accelerate action across all pillars of the Paris Agreement including adaptation, mitigation, and means of implementation. There is also an urgent need to scale up and align financial flows that are consistent with this transformation. All of these topics need to be at the top of the agenda if we are to turn the commitments made at COP 28 into reality by the time Azerbaijan hosts COP 29, where a New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance will be a primary focus. Climate finance is crucial because investments are needed to fund the transition to a low-carbon global economy and adapt to the impacts of climate change. At an international level, several factors need to be addressed to help countries have the fiscal resources needed for climate action. This includes: addressing the high cost of capital, interest rates, and debt distress; factoring in climate issues in debt relief decisions; improving the interest surcharges of financial institutions, and deploying grant and concessional finance instruments strategically. Furthermore, the sheer magnitude of the climate crisis requires the consideration of extreme measures such as the temporary suspension of debt repayments according to specific circumstances — extreme weather events for example — while facilitating access to funds. This could include enhancing direct access, simplifying approval processes, or streamlining accreditation processes. At a national level, countries can advance more in identifying ways to use different financial instruments, such as grants, loans, guarantees, equity, and insurance in a more efficient manner for specific climate mitigation objectives. Governments also need to channel private capital through combined finance and de-risking instruments. For instance, this can be done through political risk insurance, currency risk guarantees, and first-loss capital. Yet, the flow of public finance from developed countries to developing countries through bilateral and regional channels and the multilateral climate funds remains important for several nations that find it challenging to attract finance due to perceived risks and other constraints. If we look closer to home, the United Arab Emirates has already set forward a credible vision with the UAE Consensus, and a historic set of negotiated outcomes from COP 28 that pave the way to keep 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach. As we work with the COP 29 and COP 30 presidency teams to raise ambition and enhance implementation, we also have the responsibility to act and collaborate with the public and private sectors to meet the goals of the UAE Consensus. By advancing climate action we can also promote sustainable socioeconomic development and unlock one of the greatest opportunities for whole-of-society progress. COP 28 delivered a road map for a new era of climate ambition and collective action. To implement the historic outcomes from Dubai and enable the international community to deliver on the commitments, the world must see game-changing decisions and results in Baku and Belém. The troika presents us all with an unprecedented opportunity to prove once again that international cooperation can deliver for climate ambition and implementation.