What is the global stocktake — and why will it define COP 28?

With each passing year of global temperature rise, the United Nations climate talks grow in importance, particularly to the development sector. But this year’s Conference of the Parties, the 28th iteration of the summit, better known as COP 28, also stands out because it is the first year of the global stocktake. The global stocktake, established under the 2015 Paris Agreement, is intended to be an comprehensive review of how well the world has met the climate change challenge, and chart out a detailed plan for future action, sector by sector. “The success of the global stocktake will ultimately determine the success of COP28,” wrote Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. “It is the defining moment of this year, this COP and — as one of the only two stocktaking moments in this decisive decade of climate action — ultimately pivotal to whether or not we meet our 2030 goals.” Identifying where work remains is critical to lower-income countries, which have the least resources to deal with climate impacts. “We cannot afford to be without the information that shows where gaps remain on adaptation, mitigation, loss and damage and future support,” said the Least Developed Countries group in a press release. The LDC group said the global stocktake must lead to “scaled-up climate finance.” Other areas of interest to development professionals likely to be influenced by the global stocktake include loss and damage, adaptation, food systems, and just transitions. How it happens The UNFCCC stocktake process has been going on since 2021, and currently consists of the two concurrent phases of information collection and technical assessments. A technical summary report will be published later this year, probably in September, and followed by the final political phase at COP 28, where countries agree on the final form of the stocktake and the world's response. It is here that the discussion over the stocktake could get more heated — activists say some countries are already trying to influence the stocktake process for their interests, as they have in other parts of the climate negotiations. A summary of the final agreed-on product will become part of the COP 28 agreement. A key point of contention is likely to be around loss and damage, which has long been a difficult subject in climate talks, despite the breakthrough agreement at COP 27 to create a dedicated fund. Climate activists like Teresa Anderson, global lead on climate justice at ActionAid International, are keen to see the issue clearly acknowledged in the stocktake. “We know very much that loss and damage is absolutely rolling back the development and poverty eradication agenda and progress in developing countries,” Anderson told Devex. Meanwhile, a key negotiating bloc of lower-income countries is concerned about loss and damage “being folded in with adaptation through the global stocktake process, which is not giving this critical issue the space for discussion it needs,” according to the press release from the LDC group. “Loss and damage is a central pillar under the Paris Agreement, and conflating it with adaptation would set back the progress achieved last year in Sharm El-Sheikh.” While adaptation is a less controversial area, it remains underfunded, despite it dealing with all the big- and small-scale changes societies must make to help them live with climate change. Anderson said that was “absolutely necessary if vulnerable countries are to be able to have any hope of development benefits in the decades to come.” For CGIAR, a network focused on food security, “we hope the global stocktake focuses attention on agriculture and food systems in the global south, which is highly vulnerable to climate change,” said Aditi Mukherji, director of the organization’s Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Impact Area Platform. “A focus on the most vulnerable populations, like small-scale producers in the global south would be meaningful.” Mukherji also hoped it would lead to more climate finance, which has so far been “nowhere nearly enough” compared to the $100 billion a year that was promised by higher-income countries in 2009. She is far from alone: The lack of climate finance has been a key cause of mistrust during climate negotiations. Many countries object to finance often being delivered as loans, further indebting already struggling economies. What finance there is has been mostly for climate mitigation, aka projects intended to reduce fossil fuel emissions. There hasn’t been enough money for climate adaptation, according to Mukherji, but “smallholder producers need to adapt to climate change,” she said. “We want attention on how adaptation [should] get a larger share of the funds.” A political moment But there have been many dire alerts on the state of the planet, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. These in turn inform the COP summits, which have become the annual occasion for focusing political minds on climate change. And the world is not on track to keep warming to the scientifically agreed safest limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius. Climate solutions are no mystery either. The IPCC reports, among others, have also outlined the steps needed to meet the climate crisis. Political disagreements based on national self-interest are largely what have prevented more substantial progress at COP — like agreeing to eliminate fossil fuels — and the stocktake is not designed to remedy those. So what good is the stocktake? CGIAR’s Mukherji admitted it will largely be a “summary of what we have known for a while,” she said. But Mukherji, who is also an author on the IPCC’s most recent report, said the occasion for a political moment is “important.” “If the global stocktake makes a strong statement, that could serve some kind of purpose,” she said. Stiell is more blunt. “The global stocktake will end up being just another report unless governments and those that they represent can look at it and ultimately understand what it means for them and what they can and must do next,” he wrote. But big occasions to create political pressure are still needed, according to Anderson. “If we don’t create those moments,” she said, “everyone just sort of bumbles along.”