After decades of progress, USAID cuts could blind the world to famine

For decades, the U.S. Agency for International Development has served as the backbone of early warning systems to predict extreme hunger globally, funding critical data collection that underpins famine prevention efforts. But those systems are now collapsing as USAID is dismantled as part of the Trump administration’s sweeping foreign aid freeze. Specifically, USAID’s downfall is crippling the work of the world’s two most critical famine monitoring systems: the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, or FEWS NET, a USAID-funded tool that could forecast food insecurity six to nine months out; and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC, a United Nations-coordinated initiative that provides a common global framework for assessing the severity and scale of food insecurity and acute malnutrition. Analysts warn that the loss and degradation of these tools will not only blind the world to impending food crises but will also weaken international responses to humanitarian disasters. And the timing couldn’t be worse. “At the time we're pulling this plug, we're also heading to a period in which the risk of multiple famines simultaneously at different points in the world is very high,” said Chris Newton, senior early warning analyst at the International Crisis Group, which recently analyzed the effects of U.S. aid cuts on famine monitoring. FEWS NET, which operated for 40 years, has been shut down since the Trump administration froze U.S. aid in January. It was the world’s most reliable food insecurity early warning system, with decades worth of complex data and highly accurate forecasts that governments and aid agencies relied on for planning and budgeting. There may be hope yet for FEWS NET’s future: Earlier this month, Chemonics, USAID’s key contracting partner in operating the program, was told that it could restart some of its work on the program, a source familiar with the matter told Devex. But no work has resumed, and as of earlier this month the U.S. still owed Chemonics more than $100 million for work it performed prior to the aid freeze. IPC is a network of 19 organizations, many of which collect the data that feeds into its analyses. While IPC itself receives little direct funding from USAID, many of the organizations it relies on for data do — putting its ability to function at risk. One partner organization has already stopped collecting data in several hunger hotspots due to the U.S. foreign aid freeze, a source told Devex. Another is scaling back operations as funding dries up, another said. “Just because we know less doesn't mean the suffering is less,” said Nicholas Haan, who helped create the IPC in 2004. “Not knowing is not an excuse. Not knowing just means that we don't have evidence of it, but we know the suffering goes on,” said Haan, who is now senior adviser to IPC and a member of its Famine Review Committee, an expert panel that reviews IPC’s findings for quality assurance, particularly when there’s a finding of famine. The word “famine” is not used lightly. It is a technical term representing the most severe phase of the IPC’s monitoring system, and IPC uses clear, rigorous criteria in order to declare it: at least two adult deaths per 10,000 people per day, or four deaths of children. At least 30% of children under the age of 5 suffering from acute malnutrition. A total collapse of food access and availability. “Just because we know less doesn't mean the suffering is less.” --— Nicholas Haan, senior adviser, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification These thresholds represent the most extreme manifestations of human suffering. In Gaza last year, parts of which experienced famine last year according to U.N. experts, families went days without food. In Somalia in 2011, where the U.N. declared famine in two regions, mothers tied ropes around their stomachs to suppress hunger pains. In Yemen, which has teetered on the edge of famine for years, people boiled waxy tree leaves for sustenance. This is the grim reality of famine and famine-like conditions: widespread starvation, impossible choices, and death. Blowing a FEWS FEWS NET combined vast amounts of data — including agricultural production, market prices, weather patterns, cross-border trade flows, and household surveys conducted with partner organizations. In 2024, it published more than 1,000 reports on food insecurity across 34 countries in granular detail. It wasn’t just the volume of information that made FEWS NET indispensable — it was the quality. One study found that its food security projections in Africa were 84% accurate, giving aid organizations and governments a reliable foundation for decision-making on where aid was needed most. “The loss of the technical expertise and human capital that the FEWS NET analysts have is profound,” Haan said. “These are some of the world's best analysts. It's like you're playing a rugby match and you just took out your best players and now you're still trying to win the match. No, you can't do that.” Famine declarations can get political, and they sometimes meet resistance from governments. Importantly, FEWS NET applied to every country and doesn’t require government buy-in — and that neutrality made it an invaluable resource for humanitarians, U.N. agencies, and national governments. “While you could decline to host a FEWS NET presence, you couldn't necessarily opt out of their coverage entirely. But you can withdraw yourself from IPC coverage, like Sudan recently, or just not start IPC in the first place, like in Syria under Assad,” said Newton. FEWS NET came under fire last year after retracting a report at the U.S. government’s request on what it called a “famine scenario” unfolding in Gaza. The U.S. State Department, which may take over any remaining USAID function, did not respond to questions about whether it might restore FEWS NET. But restarting the program would be far from simple. It operated through multiple contracts, with Chemonics handling much of the heavy-duty analytical work, while the American Institutes for Research played a supporting role. Reviving it would require renegotiating these arrangements and reassembling a complex web of partnerships. Chemonics, for its part, has already furloughed at least 63% of its U.S.-based staff due to financial challenges resulting from the U.S. aid freeze. FEWS Net also relied on U.S. government agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the United States Geological Survey, and NASA for satellite imagery and climate forecasts — institutions that are themselves facing severe budget and staff cuts because of Trump administration orders. Finally, the loss of FEWS NET — whether permanent or temporary — isn’t just about a pause in data collection. Its reporting was built on a cascading cycle, where analyses were built on months’ worth of previous assessments. “Even with a month of a gap in analysis, that's going to affect the integrity of our ability to produce analyses moving forward,” said one former FEWS NET contractor. IPC feeling the heat IPC was created in 2004 in response to a hunger crisis in Somalia, establishing a standardized, evidence-based system for assessing food insecurity and guiding humanitarian responses. Designed to make aid decisions as data-driven as possible, IPC classifies the severity of food insecurity on a scale ranging from Phase 1 “none/minimal” to Phase 5 “catastrophe/famine.” Its reports now help direct approximately $6 billion in global humanitarian funding each year. While IPC and FEWS NET worked together closely, they operated independently. FEWS NET used IPC’s classification system and shared its data, but it also provided an independent check on IPC’s findings. As a partner, FEWS NET helped refine IPC’s tools while offering an outside perspective to verify food security assessments, making famine detection more reliable. “We've made tremendous progress. I've been in the business for 25 years — it's completely different now in terms of our ability to forecast food crises,” said Haan. IPC doesn’t collect its own data. Instead, it relies on the data collected by its partner organizations including FEWS NET, Action Against Hunger, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, and Oxfam. These groups conduct surveys and studies — such as household surveys tracking food availability, malnutrition rates, and market conditions — that form the foundation of IPC’s food security assessments. But they’re expensive and logistically difficult to conduct, especially in conflict zones and remote areas. "In the past, some of these surveys could run into the millions of dollars per year for several rounds, largely because of the difficulties of going house to house in places like rural South Sudan or rural Yemen during conflict," said Newton. Now, many of the organizations that provide this data are facing severe funding cuts, limiting their ability to conduct surveys. FAO’s Data in Emergencies Hub, one of IPC’s key data sources, has been forced to halt operations in most countries because it was almost entirely dependent on USAID funding, according to a source familiar with the matter. The U.S. has frozen $300 million in FAO funding, Politico reported. “Recent U.S. government funding cuts are impacting Action Against Hunger’s ability to support the IPC as fully as we would like,” said Eric Bebernitz, the organization’s director of external relations. “Key technical staff have been impacted, and it seems likely that our ability to conduct field surveys also will be hampered, although we are still determining how far-reaching the effects will be.” IPC will continue its analysis, but with reduced inputs, according to Haan. “We will still conduct analysis because the IPC works with whatever available evidence there is. But obviously, we'd like to have a more substantial evidence base to conduct our analysis. So we're very concerned about the lack of humanitarian access and the lack of humanitarian data,” Haan added. Filling the gaps IPC in its current form doesn’t have the ability to quickly fill the gaps left by FEWS NET. One of its biggest limitations — which has become even more pressing with FEWS NET’s shutdown — is its reporting frequency. IPC typically publishes about two reports per geography per year, far fewer than FEWS NET’s minimum of quarterly updates. “We've already lost a cycle of FEWS NET reporting [due to the U.S. aid freeze]. That cycle of FEWS NET, every cycle of FEWS NET reporting is an opportunity to gauge the well-being of the world's most vulnerable. So, we've lost that cycle, that interval of understanding,” said Haan. Recognizing the need for more frequent updates, IPC had already started working to increase its reporting to a monthly schedule, with a prototype expected by the end of 2025 and a full rollout in 2026. But with FEWS NET’s future in limbo, the gap in reporting remains — and the likelihood that the world could overlook a coming hunger crisis will rise. “Entire famines can begin and end in the gap between IPC analyses if these analyses happen twice per year. If you look at a timeline for Somalia 2011, it's possible for a famine that kills about 260,000 people to begin and end within these six-month gaps,” said Newton. Experts are concerned about what that could mean in Sudan. FEWS NET data is gone, the government suspended its participation in the IPC process, and even Médecins Sans Frontières has been forced to stop working in Zamzam camp in Darfur, where famine was declared in 2024, due to fighting. “The lights are being turned off for the world's only active famine, and a conflict where mass starvation plays a major role,” Newton said. And conditions are likely to get worse. June marks the start of Sudan’s lean season, the period before the next harvest when food stocks plummet and hunger levels peak. With conflict disrupting markets and humanitarian access severely restricted, the coming months could be devastating. “The worst of the worst in Sudan will be happening in June, July, August,” Haan said.