There’s been no shortage of conflicts this year — and South Asia’s longest-running rivalry is entering a troubling new phase.
In late April, India made headlines when it suspended the Indus Water Treaty, a 64-year-old agreement that governs how the Indus River and its tributaries are shared between India and Pakistan. Brokered by the World Bank in 1960, the treaty has held through wars, diplomatic freezes, and cross-border attacks. Not anymore.
The move followed what India called a Pakistan-backed terror attack in Kashmir. “We will ensure that not even a drop of water from the Indus River goes to Pakistan,” says India’s water minister. Downstream flow has already dropped by up to 90% on one tributary, according to reports. Pakistan responded by calling it “an act of war.”
This latest flash point is more than just a bilateral crisis — it’s a sign of how shared resource agreements, many of them forged in a very different era, face growing strain from climate change and rising geopolitical competition, Devex contributor Catherine Davison writes.
And the stakes here are enormous. The Indus water basin, often called Pakistan’s breadbasket, depends almost entirely on glacial meltwater from the rapidly warming Himalayas. Much of that water originates in or flows through India before reaching Pakistan, giving New Delhi significant control over how much — and when — it arrives downstream. It irrigates more than 90% of Pakistan’s crops and supports a quarter of its GDP. Even slight disruptions, especially during the dry season, could derail harvests of staples such as wheat and barley. “Any change in meltwater, maybe not now but in the future, is definitely going to impact the irrigation system, agriculture, and food security,” says Arun Bhakta Shrestha of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development.
The treaty’s suspension also halts real-time data sharing on rainfall and snowmelt — just as peak meltwater season begins — raising serious risks for flood forecasting and crop planning.
Still, experts say the Indus Water Treaty was never built to withstand these kinds of pressures. It focused on dividing water, not managing it efficiently or adaptively. “It is a clear partition, 1947-style,” says Ashok Swain of Uppsala University. “It is not a water treaty.” In order to mitigate the impact on agricultural production and food security, future water-sharing agreements will need to factor in climate adaptability and encourage cooperation — which the Indus treaty failed to do.
Reworking the Indus deal to include joint climate forecasting, variable flow thresholds, and shared infrastructure could help transform the basin from a flash point into a model for resilience. But the bigger takeaway is this: The world is entering a new era of water politics, and existing treaties aren’t built to handle it. With glaciers shrinking, geopolitical tensions rising, and water scarcity accelerating, this won’t be the last water conflict we see — and forging smarter, more collaborative agreements isn’t just important; it’s urgent.
Read: India-Pakistan conflict shows the need for better water agreements
Light the FEWS
After months in the dark, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, or FEWS NET, is officially back online — and not a moment too soon.
The USAID-funded network — long considered the world’s most reliable forecaster of food insecurity — had been offline since January, after the Trump administration began dismantling USAID soon after taking office. Now, after a one-off report in May, full operations are resuming — with Chemonics and the American Institutes for Research restarting work and management of the program expected to shift to the U.S. State Department in the coming weeks.
“FEWS NET will progressively restore its full reporting cycle in the coming months, beginning in July with Key Messages for more than 20 countries,” the network said yesterday.
The timing is critical. A new report warns of “Famine (IPC Phase 5)” in parts of Sudan and alarming hunger levels in Gaza, South Sudan, and Haiti. The system pulls in data from partners such as NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.N.-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification to track conditions across dozens of crisis-affected regions.
But while the return of FEWS NET is a win for humanitarian planning, it doesn’t guarantee that aid will reach those in need — especially amid widespread budget cuts. As the system's statement put it: “The return of FEWS NET sends an important message, reminding the world that American foreign assistance is both generous and strategic.”
Updated country data is expected by October. For now, aid agencies have their early-warning system back — but the bigger challenge is acting on it as resources shrink.
Read more: FEWS NET, once USAID’s flagship famine warning system, is back online
See also: After decades of progress, USAID cuts could blind the world to famine
Further reading: As famine data dries up, can AI step in?
Off-key in Bonn
Tomorrow marks the final day of the 2025 midyear Bonn Climate Change Conference, aka SB 62, and the meetings — held in Beethoven’s birthplace — kicked off with more cacophony than symphony. The reason? Money, of course.
Talks opened with a now-familiar clash over climate finance, with wealthy countries resisting pressure to commit public funds and developing nations insisting on their legal right to them, my colleague Jesse Chase-Lubitz reports. At the center of it all: whether to include Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement — the provision on public finance — on the agenda. In the end, it wasn’t, but negotiators left with an open-ended promise to keep the dialogue going.
Much of Bonn has been about teeing up the COP30 annual U.N. climate conference in Brazil, where food systems issues are expected to take center stage — particularly topics such as regenerative soils, restoring landscapes, food security in the context of climate change, the climate finance gap for small-scale farmers, aquatic food systems, just transitions, and gender equality. But one topic to watch even now: the Global Goal on Adaptation. Countries are trying to cut down a bloated list of 490 draft indicators — covering everything from heat-based early-warning systems to climate-resilient infrastructure — down to about 100. Developing countries say they’ve been sidelined from the process.
“A lot of technical experts have been asked to develop this, but the process wasn’t funded, so it’s much harder for developing countries to participate,” says Mercy Corps’ Debbie Hillier.
Read: Climate negotiations in Bonn begin with familiar finance clash
See also: Before COP30 takes the spotlight, Bonn sets the stage
Money doesn’t grow on trees
Bringing home the bacon
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Meanwhile, the U.S. is once again a no-show — not just in Bonn, but also at the much-anticipated fourth Financing for Development, or FfD4, conference in Sevilla, Spain, which opens Monday. That’s where countries will set funding priorities for the next decade of global development. As for the U.S. sitting out Sevilla: “It is what it is,” says U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs’ Shari Spiegel, who helped shape the Sevilla Platform of Action. “The world is coming together … the rest of the world wants to come together to move this forward.”
Countries have already agreed to a draft text on how to finance the SDGs, setting the stage for what’s expected to be a defining moment for global development priorities over the next decade. Food systems aren’t exactly expected to be front and center of the conversation. But with SDG2 on ending hunger further out of reach than ever, it’s a moment for policymakers and advocates to secure financing for food systems transformation. The Global Flagship Initiative for Food Security, launched at the COP16 desertification conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, last year, is pushing for food security to be on the agenda in Sevilla. Stay tuned for our coverage of FfD4 next week
If you’re heading to Sevilla between June 29 and July 1, come see us at Casa Devex — our very own villa for exclusive interviews, panels, and parties. Sign up here. We’ll also have two reporters on the ground, so be sure to say hello at jesse.chaselubitz@devex.com and elissa.miolene@devex.com.
Catch up on all our coverage of FfD4:
• US abandons Financing for Development Conference
• A Q&A with the woman who helped shape the Sevilla Platform for Action (Pro)
• What happened at the last FfD conference, and what has changed since?
• What is Financing for Development 4 and why is it a big deal? (Pro)
+ This month, we’ve been hosting the Road to Sevilla virtual event series to map out the future of development funding and set the agenda for FfD4, exclusively for Devex Pro members. And tomorrow at 9 a.m. ET (3 p.m. CET), we’ll have a live interview with Rémy Rioux, the CEO of the French development agency AFD. Register here and submit your questions.
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Chew on this
The Asian Development Bank and the Gates Foundation joined a pact that aims to overhaul rice production for smallholder farmers in Asia. [Global AgInvesting]
Nigeria and Brazil sign a $1 billion agreement to boost agriculture. [Reuters]
The disease-fighting farm robot helping to feed Africa. [The Telegraph]
Mekong Capital, a Vietnam-focused private equity firm, plans to launch a regenerative agriculture fund in 2026 with as much as $200 million in capital. [Bloomberg]
About the author
Ayenat Mersie
Ayenat Mersie is a Global Development Reporter for Devex. Previously, she worked as a freelance journalist for publications such as National Geographic and Foreign Policy and as an East Africa correspondent for Reuters.
