Devex Invested: What happens when a lender and a ratings agency break up?

At first glance the breakup between the African Export-Import Bank and Fitch Ratings might look like a niche spat between a lender and a ratings agency. It’s not.

The break, which was swiftly followed by Fitch’s downgrade of Afreximbank to junk status, has cracked open a much bigger, long-simmering debate inside development finance: Who gets to decide what counts as a multilateral development bank, and what protections really come with that label?

At the center of the dispute is the concept of preferred creditor status — which means MDBs get paid back first, even when countries restructure their debt. Afreximbank insists it falls within that category, but Fitch isn’t convinced, my colleague Ayenat Mersie writes.

The dispute came into sharper focus after Ghana defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2022, raising questions about how its roughly $750 million in obligations to Afreximbank would be treated. Ghana and the bank later reached an agreement on the debt, though the terms were not made public. Whether Afreximbank chose flexibility or conceded ground became a question with real consequences for investors, African institutions, and the global debt architecture. Reporting suggests that Afreximbank may have accepted some form of concession — which, for some critics, reinforced doubts that the bank truly enjoys preferred creditor treatment.

Hannah Ryder, CEO of Development Reimagined, says that “it is up to Afreximbank … how they decide to work with Ghana to make sure that Ghana repays.” She expresses a wider frustration among African institutions over how international ratings agencies assess risk.

Others argue that Afreximbank’s status is somewhat murky. “It’s not clear cut — you can make arguments on both sides,” says Chris Humphrey, a senior research associate at ODI Global.

But the rift represents a bigger and longer-term issue: “MDBs are unregulated … there’s no external standard to refer to. At the end of the day, the real ambiguity lies within this informal system of preferred creditor treatment,” Humphrey says.

Meanwhile, S&P assigned the Africa Finance Corporation, an MDB meant to bridge Africa’s infrastructure gap with private investment, an A/A-1 rating with a positive outlook last week. S&P cited its strong liquidity and asset quality but flagged concentrated Nigerian shareholding as a key risk. The outlook hinges on AFC successfully diversifying its sovereign shareholder base and expanding capital.

Read: Afreximbank cuts ties with Fitch, exposing a fault line in global finance (Pro)

ICYMI: Afreximbank ratings clash puts spotlight on small development banks (Pro)

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DFC’s Africa plans

The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation is expanding its footprint on the African continent, announcing last week a new regional managing director based in Kenya. Selam Demissie was named to the role.

Also last week DFC CEO Ben Black spoke about the agency’s plans on the continent at a Corporate Council for Africa event that my colleague Adva Saldinger attended. He discussed the agency’s expanded maximum contingent liability — up to $205 billion from $60 billion — and implied that he expects investments on the continent to continue to match current proportions. About $10.8 billion of DFC’s current portfolio is on the continent. Energy, critical minerals, and information and communications technology are key sectors, he said.

“[U.S.] President [Donald] Trump tasked our agency with a critical mission as the international investment arm of the United States government. DFC investments must deliver for the American people and serve as a powerful tool for securing economic opportunity and regional stability at its core,” Black said. “This approach is simply a return to America’s first principles of economic statecraft, and brings us to Africa at a pivotal moment.”

Black said that the continent holds key reserves of critical minerals and argued that the U.S. presents a better model for how to finance African growth: one “built on transparency and private sector leadership.”

DFC will look to invest in large projects — likely of $500 million — though some smaller projects may also get investments, he said. “We want to structure investments that can transform and improve economic trajectories for entire regions while advancing U.S. strategic interests abroad.”

And Black also shared that he has a personal connection to the continent: “My wife and I spent our honeymoon in Africa,” he said.

Meanwhile, this week we released our Power 50 list of the leading individuals who are transforming development as we know it, and ranked at the top spot was Ben Black. Check out the full list to see who else made it.

ICYMI: Reauthorization of the US development finance corporation gains traction

Explore: Devex Power 50

Sovereign wealth

A push to restrict the export of unprocessed minerals is becoming a defining feature of Africa’s investment landscape — and a signal to mining companies, financiers, and governments that the rules of engagement are shifting.

Last year alone, Zimbabwe restricted the export of raw lithium and said it would consider limits on chrome exports; Botswana required that mining firms sell 24% of new concessions to local investors; Ghana banned mining in all forest reserves by revoking a 2022 regulation; Malawi put a temporary ban on all raw mineral exports; and the Democratic Republic of Congo placed bans on cobalt exports.

The intent is clear: Move beyond raw extraction toward processing, jobs, and industrial capacity. For governments with limited fiscal space, export controls are emerging as one of the few levers available to influence how — and where — capital is deployed.

“For countries with limited fiscal space and weak bargaining power, these bans are a way to force a conversation with mining companies,” Thomas Scurfield of the Natural Resource Governance Institute, tells me. That conversation increasingly centers on downstream investment: refineries, power supply, and long-term commitments rather than short-term extraction.

In countries with market power such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, which produces more than 75% of the world’s cobalt, export controls have already altered pricing dynamics and strengthened government oversight.

For investors willing to think beyond extraction, the message is that access to minerals is becoming more closely linked to commitments on processing, power, and partnership — and that could redefine where development and commercial capital meet.

If you find the minerals conversations new and overwhelming, keep an eye out for a Devex Pro explainer piece in the coming weeks. We live in a mineral world, we should probably figure out what that means.

Read: Inside Africa’s high stakes push for mineral sovereignty (Pro)

Cool investments

As climate stress and food insecurity intensify, cold-chain infrastructure is moving from niche agri-tech to a core investment theme — with implications for food security, greenhouse gas emissions, and smallholder farmer incomes. Cold chains are networks of cold storage hubs, refrigerated transport, and monitoring systems that help to keep food cool as it moves through the supply chain from farm to consumer.

Up to 40% of food spoils before reaching consumers in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, largely due to the absence of cold storage and refrigerated transport. That loss isn’t just an economic drag; it’s also a climate problem. The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that if food loss and waste were a country, it would rank as the world’s third-largest greenhouse gas emitter.

What’s changing is the investment model. Across countries such as Kenya, Nigeria, and Rwanda, solar-powered cold rooms, pay-as-you-go refrigerated transport, and data-enabled monitoring systems are starting to cut losses while avoiding diesel dependence. “Can you imagine having 40% more food for a growing planet without having to do anything to increase the production?” Rusmir Musić, global cooling lead at the International Finance Corporation, tells Devex contributor Catherine Davison.

For investors, the appeal lies in scale and spillovers. Demand for sustainable cooling in developing economies is projected to reach $600 billion annually by 2050, according to IFC and the United Nations Environmental Programme. Blended finance from institutions such as IFC and the African Development Bank is helping de-risk early deployments — while governments increasingly view cold chains as strategic infrastructure, not just private-sector logistics.

“Cold chain is critical infrastructure,” says Toby Peters of the University of Birmingham. “It’s as important as a water pipe or an electrical cable.” The question for development and private capital is how fast — and how systemically — that shift in thinking translates into investable pipelines.

Read: How a global cold-chain revolution can boost food security

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What we’re reading

The World Bank opens new Caribbean offices in Jamaica. [Nation News]

Multilateral development banks are plugging financing gaps in Africa. [Semafor]

China shifts from Africa funder to debt collector, study finds. [Bloomberg]

Adva Saldinger contributed to this edition of Devex Invested.