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What was Axel van Trotsenburg to the World Bank? Many different things to many different people. All agree, however, that he was part of the DNA of the multilateral lender, moving up the ranks to the second-highest position over an event-filled 37 years. Now that he’s retired, we look at his legacy and what’s next for the bank in a post-Axel world.
Also in today’s edition: Speaking of leadership, what’s next for WHO?
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There’s no shortage of opinions on Axel van Trotsenburg, until recently the World Bank’s senior managing director. Devex contributing reporter Sophie Edwards captures the full spectrum in her deeply reported piece on the “$700 billion man” — the sum his supporters say he helped raise for the bank over nearly four decades.
The nickname is why most agree that Axel — yes, he was well-known enough in development circles that we’re going with his first name — was fiercely dedicated to the bank and its mission to eradicate poverty. But to his critics, this loyalty — at times described as a “World Bank or bust mindset” — could also be a hindrance, and his departure, while leaving a gaping hole, opens up space for much-needed fresh blood.
But it’s unlikely anyone — at least not for a long time — will match his unparalleled mastery of the institution and getting it to function at its best, namely, by getting money in and out of the door. Lots of it.
He was described as “essential” to a massive 2018 capital increase and to leveraging funds for the International Development Association, or IDA, the bank’s concessional lending arm for the poorest countries, which is perhaps his most profound legacy.
“Axel had been deeply involved in keeping IDA replenishments running for more than two decades. How that part of the equation works going forward is a big open question,” says Clemence Landers of the Center for Global Development.
Another of his achievements was orchestrating a major initiative in 1996 that offered debt relief to nations burdened by crippling obligations. But, like his other accomplishments, it comes with dueling perspectives that reflect Axel’s complexities.
“Axel is someone who cares passionately about development, equality, and keeping the multilateral system going,” says Jamie Drummond, cofounder of ONE, “but in the end, maybe he can get too stuck in the weeds of the system, which he understandably loves to preserve, instead of ensuring urgent outcomes for people and what it’s all ultimately for.”
Whatever your opinion is of the man who always took time to say good morning to the janitor and who liked to talk, sometimes too much, all eyes now turn to the bank’s leadership.
Insiders tell Sophie that President Ajay Banga gains greater room to maneuver; Anna Bjerde inherits an operations portfolio that Axel was known to shadow; and Paschal Donohoe, a former Irish finance minister, brings an outside political sensibility to the role of managing director and chief knowledge officer.
But the question still looms over the 81-year-old institution: Can anyone fill Axel’s shoes?
“Axel is a huge loss, but it’s also healthy,” says Alexia Latortue, former U.S. Treasury lead on the World Bank. “No one will be Axel again, but they’ll bring something else.”
Read: The post-Axel era at the World Bank (Pro)
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One of the World Bank head honchos that people will be watching in the wake of Axel’s retirement is Anna Bjerde, managing director of operations. But she’s no newbie. She’s been a steady hand at the bank for nearly 30 years herself.
My colleague Ayenat Mersie recently caught up with the bank veteran as she was embarking on a multicountry tour spanning Nigeria, Angola, Ethiopia, and Saudi Arabia. The trip comes a few months after she traveled to four other African countries, underscoring how central the continent — and especially job creation for it — has become to her portfolio, she told Ayenat.
Bjerde’s trip also focused on the Lobito Corridor, a rail and road network linking mineral-rich regions of Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo to Angola.
It’s not just about minerals, though. “So what’s exciting about the Lobito Corridor is the amount of jobs it can create, the amount of improvements in exports and imports, and the economic transformation that can happen along the corridor,” she said.
But many of these large-scale infrastructure projects come at a time when debt is crushing African countries. It’s a problem, she said, that is a high priority for the bank.
“We very much work with countries, looking at efficient expenditures. So, is this project worth taking on, yes or no? Does it need public finance, yes or no? If it brings in the private sector, what’s the risk allocation between public and private?” she said.
“And of course, we ourselves look at two very important things for countries that are very, very high on debt levels,” she added. “One is we make sure what we call net positive in our flows, meaning they never owe us more than we provide to them. And that’s something I’m very happy that for all African countries we have net positive flows.”
Read: Anna Bjerde — country compacts are a ‘game-changer’ for World Bank (Pro)
+ Bjerde came in at No. 22 on the Devex Power 50. To find out why, make sure you check out the complete list. She also talked to Ayenat about the African Union summit happening this week — which Ayenat will be attending. If you’ll be there and want to drop her a line, email ayenat.mersie@devex.com.
Let’s stay on the theme of leadership and who’s worthy of it. It seems it’s never too early to pontificate on who’s next in line to take power — perpetual election mode is a time-honored tradition in the U.S. — and development organizations are often no different. Look at all the chatter that began a while ago over who will succeed U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, whose term isn’t up until the end of the year.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ term as director-general of the World Health Organization isn’t ending until 2027, but advice is already pouring in on who should replace him.
As opposed to when Tedros took up the mantle in 2017, the next DG is inheriting a WHO suffering from a crisis of credibility and confidence, with the U.S. no longer a member and budgets tighter than Victorian-era corsets.
So, insiders tell my colleague Jenny Lei Ravelo, the next DG will need the political acumen to navigate treacherous geopolitical waters. Some even say political chops are more important than the director-general being a physician or having a strong technical background — although it might behoove the next DG to be surrounded by technical expertise.
The person also needs to be a good communicator who can stand up to misinformation. They need to be a visionary who can build back trust in the agency and ensure buy-in from member states — perhaps even convincing the U.S. to rejoin WHO eventually.
In other words, the next DG needs to be a “unicorn,” one expert says. Is it possible? It’s not impossible, some say.
William “Bill” Steiger, the new CEO of Malaria No More and former chief of staff at USAID during Trump’s first administration, tells Jenny that the DG can be influential and “exert discipline over the organization to try and make sure that it is not spreading itself too thin.”
“It is that very delicate balance between assertive vision and leadership and negotiation with the member states that a really good DG knows how to do, and those who are very successful manage to strike that balance.”
Read: What kind of leader does WHO need next? (Pro)
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