UN chief: 'We are in trouble, and we need to change course'

BURLINGTON, Vt. — United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres sees two potential scenarios playing out in the global response to COVID-19. In the first scenario, wealthy nations — led by the G-20 — will find a way to deliver meaningful debt relief to low- and middle-income countries, “seriously mobilize the liquidities necessary to support the developing world,” and lead an effort to ensure the COVID-19 vaccine is a “people’s vaccine.” “If that is the case, I believe that in two to three years time it will be possible to progressively come — I wouldn't say to a perfectly reestablished situation — but come to a moment of progress and hope that the future is possible,” Guterres told Devex editor-in-chief Raj Kumar, in an interview ahead of the U.N.’s 75th general assembly. In the other scenario, those things do not happen — lower-income countries are left to fend largely for themselves, and there is no effective global coordination of vaccine production and distribution. Guterres projects that such an approach would lead to a long cycle — “five to seven years” — of social and economic disruption. “Not only a series of recessions, but a depression, with many countries coming to insolvency and the dramatic impacts and consequences in global financial systems,” he said. The conclusion, for Guterres, is that, “it's time to put our act together.” A big element of nudging the world toward the first scenario would be mobilizing financial resources for low- and middle-income countries that are on par with what higher-income countries have made available for themselves. “I think it’s time for leaders in the world to become experts in transforming problems into opportunities.” --— António Guterres, secretary-general, United Nations “I've been saying since the beginning that a massive rescue package was necessary — two digits of the global economy. The truth is that the developed world is doing that,” Guterres said, citing relief packages in the global north that have approached 10-12% of countries’ gross domestic product. “But the south is in trouble,” Guterres added. “There has been very little solidarity with the south.” The U.N. chief said that the debt suspension initiative led by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund and agreed by the G-20 in April is “not enough.” “We need it prolonged and we need it [extended] to all developing and middle-income countries that are extremely vulnerable at the present moment, have no access to financial markets, and are facing a debt crisis,” Guterres said. He added that the amount of resources flowing from international financial institutions and bilateral aid donors has also not been enough. “We are in trouble, and we need to change course,” Guterres said. The financing shortfall also applies to global efforts to coordinate the production and distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine to ensure equitable and efficient access that prioritizes the most vulnerable. Guterres lauded the global vaccine access initiative, known as COVAX, which has brought together the World Health Organization, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, and 76 different countries. “I would say that the technical work is being done quite well. The problem is money,” Guterres said. He noted that the initiative has so far received about $2.7 billion, while it requires about $35 billion. “My appeal is that independently of the efforts countries are doing for their own populations, it's absolutely essential to finance the COVAX, in order for the COVAX to be able to support those developing countries that ... [do not have] the possibility to ensure the access of their populations directly to a vaccine,” he said. Last week, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation reported that childhood vaccination levels have dropped to their lowest since the 1990s, reversing decades of progress within just a few months. Asked whether the fallout from the pandemic will require the world to reconsider the global Sustainable Development Goals agenda, Guterres responded that the goals are “more relevant than ever.” “It's exactly because we have not made enough progress in the SDGs that we are as fragile as we are,” he said. Guterres said the “only way forward” is to align the resources that are mobilized for COVID-19 relief and recovery with the global frameworks that have been set up to advance sustainable development, including the SDGs, the Paris Agreement on climate change, and the values of the U.N. charter itself. “If we spend the money to reestablish, for instance, energy production based on fossil fuels, we are undermining our future,” Guterres said. “If we spend the money betting on the green economy, betting on renewable energy, which, by the way, is cheaper and more profitable, then we are moving simultaneously with recovery and with the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals,” he added. The same is true for health and education systems, which the pandemic has revealed to be fragile. “Are we going to move into universal health coverage? Have we understood the fragility of our health systems, or are we going to do just as hoc investments here and there without understanding that we need really a new systematic way to respond to pandemics like this?” Guterres asked. As to whether the pandemic has changed his own approach to the role of secretary-general, Guterres said he thinks about it on a “global,” not a “personal” level. “We all have changed. We are all living in a different way,” Guterres said. “Sometimes people say that the politicians are the animals that are experts in turning opportunities into problems. I think it’s time for leaders in the world to become experts in transforming problems into opportunities,” he added. Watch the full Guterres interview here.