USAID business forecast: Q1 2021

The boost in forecast business opportunities with the U.S. Agency for International Development seen in Q3 2020 has declined slightly in Q1 2021 — but the opportunities continue to be at record highs. The data for Q1 2021 lists 227 forecast opportunities worth $29.2 billion — a 3% decrease from Q3 2020. Nine billion-dollar opportunities, first listed in Q3 2020, remain on the forecast list to maintain record values. Continuing the trend from last quarter, the impact of COVID-19 has seen health programs dominating new business opportunities. It accounts for 64% of the forecast opportunity values. In the Q1 2021 business call, which took place on Nov. 19, USAID explained that the pandemic is not only seeing highs in forecast opportunities but has also resulted in record annual procurement spending. “We obligated over $21.4 billion in acquisition and assistance mechanisms last year,” Mark Walther, director for the Bureau for Management, Office of Acquisition and Assistance, explained in the quarterly business call.“This far exceeds our previous high of over $17 billion. It’s been a record breaking year, and COVID-19 supplemental funds obviously played a significant role in that as well,” he said. Of this total, $15.1 billion was spent through Washington-based bureaus and $6.3 billion through country missions, $6.2 billion was obligated through contracts, $5.1 billion through cooperative agreements, and $10 billion in grants. Regional trends Despite the big opportunities remaining in the forecast, there is a range of new opportunities making an impact on forecast business opportunities by region. In West Africa, the region will benefit from new biodiversity and low emissions initiatives, valued at $100 million. Senegal will also benefit from a new $100 million health status and human capital initiative, while education in Nigeria will benefit from a $100 million investment. These opportunities have seen the value of forecast opportunities in West Africa increase 64% from Q3 2020, reaching $1.2 billion — the highest forecast value since Q2 2017. East Africa has also seen further boosts in forecast investment from Q3 2020, with the current estimated value for the region $1.5 billion. New opportunities have been announced in Ethiopia, including $25 million targeting agricultural adaptation techniques and collaboration and $10 million will target skills in disaster risk management. And six new opportunities are forecast for Sudan, with the largest opportunity valued at $100 million supporting monitoring, evaluation, and learning support in the region. After a minimal rise in forecast opportunities for Q3 2020, there are increased opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean. Mexico, which had no forecast opportunities in Q3 2020, now has three listed with a total value of $60 million. Of that, $25 million will be directed toward an activity to “improve the capacity and effectiveness of governmental and non-governmental actors” in protecting Mexican journalists and human rights defenders. And an additional $25 million will be directed at transparency in Mexican businesses. Colombia and Guatemala have also benefited from new opportunities, which will see $879 million in investments directed to the region. In South Asia and southern Africa, there are small increases in the value of opportunities through USAID, while Central Africa, central Asia, East Asia, and the Pacific among the regions where the value of opportunities trend downwards. Insights by sector The investment in health has again increased in Q1 2021, seeing a record $19.5 billion in forecast opportunities for the sector and an additional $1.1 billion for HIV/AIDS initiatives. Among the new opportunities are malaria projects targeting Cambodia and Myanmar, and a TB and HIV activity in Myanmar. But outside of health, there other priorities becoming an increasing focus for USAID. After seeing a decline in opportunities forecast for Q3 2020, programs supporting WASH have reached a record high of $1.3 billion. The previous record was $1.2 billion recorded in Q3 2016, and is well above the $490 million quarterly average of opportunities for the sector. The Water and Development IDIQ, valued at $500 million, is leading the new opportunities that will provide a range of services to the sector — including data collection and analysis, program planning and design, regulatory support, monitoring and evaluation, and more. Gender equality and women’s empowerment has seen a $100 million boost through a new women in civil society program for Afghanistan. This is the highest value of forecast opportunities in this sector since Q4 2015. Opportunities supporting the management sector have also produced a record high, with the value peaking at $655 million this quarter. In stark contradiction, economic growth and trade programs have recorded a massive decline in forecast opportunities. In Q3 2020, opportunities supporting this sector were forecast at $4.7 billion. This quarter the forecast sits at $1.7 billion. New forecast information The new quarter of data brings with it changes. Information identifying whether an opportunity is new and not previously forecast has been removed. It was previously an issue, as the field was not being correctly updated. However, it was useful for identifying cancellations. New fields have been added that aim to provide other ways to track opportunities. A unique ID for each activity is being applied, and a change log will provide information on alterations to an opportunity. The contract approach for the opportunity will also be detailed, along with information on how USAID intends to use co-creation as part of the design, solicitation, or procurement process. Eligibility information will note restrictions on organizations tendering, and a geographic code will note any restrictions by region. Plans for the new year Objectives for the coming year will see USAID continue to focus on increasing diversity in business partners, with an increase in the “use of new and underutilized partners at both prime and sub-award levels” a key target. Randy Tift, chief acquisition and assistance policy officer with the Bureau for Management, Office of Acquisition and Assistance, said that within USAID missions, targets will be set for this metric, “along with metrics for strengthening the capacity of local partner organizations … and increasing the use of co-creation.” Innovation in procurement, especially the use of co-creation, is also expanding with more engagement expected to encourage the participation of partners. And partners can expect more support in enabling and equipping their workforce with two new positions created within USAID to provide this support — a lead for strategy and a lead for engagement. <div class='tableauPlaceholder' id='viz1603123271258' style='position: relative'><noscript><a href='#'><img alt=' ' src='https:&#47;&#47;public.tableau.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;US&#47;USAID-Forecast&#47;USAID_Forecast_main&#47;1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class='tableauViz' style='display:none;'><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='embed_code_version' value='3' /> <param name='path' value='views&#47;USAID-Forecast&#47;USAID_Forecast_main?:embed=y&amp;:display_count=no&amp;:toolbar=no' /> <param name='toolbar' value='no' /><param name='static_image' value='https:&#47;&#47;public.tableau.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;US&#47;USAID-Forecast&#47;USAID_Forecast_main&#47;1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /></object></div> <script type='text/javascript'> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1603123271258'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='1200px';vizElement.style.height='1200px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script> USAID business forecast Q1 FY 2021. 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