What does the United States' G20 presidency mean for the world?

As South Africa’s G20 presidency came to a close, the country’s leader — Cyril Ramaphosa — tapped the ceremonial gavel before him. In a typical year, he would have handed it to the next country to take over the G20 presidency: the United States. But with no American official in the room, the gavel had nowhere to go. “At the heart of our presidency lies a conviction that the G20 must act boldly, and act together, to create an environment of inclusive growth, reduced inequality and sustainable development,” said Ramaphosa, speaking just before his time at the helm ended. “Together, we can ensure that no one is left behind.” It was a symbolic end to a year centered on the priorities of the global south — and a prelude to a very different G20 presidency under the United States. Every year, the leader of the Group of 20 largest economies changes, leaving it up to that nation to set the agenda, shepherd negotiations, and push for the outcomes it wants the G20 to champion. Under South Africa, that was solidarity, equality, and sustainability; under the United States, the G20 will focus on growth, deregulation, and energy. South Africa also expanded the pool of nations and organizations engaging in the G20 process, while the U.S. is expected to shrink it. And South Africa focused on the needs of its home continent, while the U.S. is led by a leader who has made “America First” the cornerstone of his agenda. “You can almost hold a mirror between the Brazilian first, and now the South African G20 presidencies and their priorities — and the opposite of that appears in what we’re seeing coming from the United States,” said Nabil Ahmed, the director of economic and racial justice at Oxfam America. “We shouldn't be holding our breath and waiting to see what happens. The Trump administration has already made very clear what their priorities are at the international level.” Value shift South Africa’s presidency focused on three themes that the Trump administration has spent months disparaging: solidarity, equality, and sustainability across the world. In February, Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused the country of “doing very bad things,” stating that the presidency’s three themes were code for diversity, equity, and inclusion and climate change. “I will NOT attend the G20 summit in Johannesburg,” Rubio posted on X. “My job is to advance America’s national interests, not waste taxpayer money or coddle anti-Americanism.” Analysts expect the hot topics of America’s culture war — namely, gender and climate — to be stripped from the G20 process, though the State Department and U.S. Treasury did not respond to a request for comment in time for publication. While energy is expected to be a main priority of the U.S. G20 presidency, it’s positioned more as an all-encompassing approach, in contrast with the sustainable lens taken by both South Africa and last year’s G20 president, Brazil. The U.S. is also expected to shift the G20’s focus from the global south, something the last four G20 presidents — South Africa, Brazil, India, and Indonesia — centered their engagement on. “I think a lot of the sherpa track is going to be removed, and they're really going to focus on the finance,” said Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, the head of the South African Institute of International Affairs, or SAIIA. Over the last several years, the sherpa track has been focused on topics that touch development, such as agriculture, disaster risk reduction, and education. Back to basics In the weeks leading up to the summit, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized South Africa for hosting a “G100,” a jab at how the country expanded the G20 process to a wider number of countries, organizations, and engagement groups. Within days, Ramaphosa shot back, telling the G20 Social Summit — which was launched by Brazil’s 2024 G20 presidency to increase civil society’s influence in the bloc — that South Africa was hosting not just a G100, but a “G-million.” This year, South Africa’s G20 presidency had two different tracks made up of a collective 22 working groups, along with three task forces and 13 engagement groups. More than 40 countries also confirmed their attendance at the G20 Leaders’ Summit, including six that represented regional economic groups in Africa, Asia, and the Caribbean. Bessent said the U.S. will take the G20 in a sharply different direction, noting it will be “a concentrated group in Miami, seeing the best America has to offer, with American leadership.” “The U.S. is back on the international stage as a leader,” said Bessent, speaking in a video from the Oval Office. “We have whittled down the G20 back to basics.” Reversing course on tax For Oxfam’s Ahmed, one of the biggest changes will be around the G20’s posture on inequality, which emerged as a central theme for South Africa’s presidency this year. “The warning signals should be blaring against the U.S. G20 2026, fueling inequality around the world,” he said. Ahmed spoke of President Donald Trump’s efforts to reduce corporate and individual tax rates through the “big, beautiful bill,” which was passed into law in July. The legislation solidified an earlier act passed by Trump’s first administration, which reduced the average tax rate of America’s richest companies from an average of 22% to 12.8% — saving the largest corporations a combined $240 billion from 2018 to 2021 alone, according to an analysis from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. The bill also cut taxes across the American public, with the richest 1% receiving tax cuts three times the size of those with incomes in the bottom 60%, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. For Bessent, the tax cuts allow the country to “unleash the full potential of the U.S. economy,” and encourage businesses to invest in America again. But the moves go against calls for more progressive taxation from the last several G20 presidencies, all of which have been from the global south. “It’s clear that the G20 next year will not be a G20 where the consensus will help in progressing this agenda,” said Susana Ruiz, Oxfam International’s global tax justice lead. Holding firm on debt While the U.S. has not released its plan for the G20 just yet, several are taking hints from Bessent’s remarks at October’s annual World Bank meetings and the Treasury’s engagement with international financial institutions throughout the year. A critical piece of that, explained Eric LeCompte, head of the debt reform organization Jubilee USA Network, is that Bessent has continued the call for debt relief processes to be more timely and efficient. It’s something pushed by South Africa throughout this year, and during its G20 presidency, the nation continuously raised the issue of debt relief and restructuring. South Africa highlighted how the continent spends $89 billion annually on servicing its debt, and often faces higher interest rates than anywhere else in the world — forcing many nations to pay more on debt servicing than they do on health or education. “People are sometimes surprised, but the [U.S.] administration is both interested and supportive of debt restructuring,” said LeCompte. The handover Just before the summit, the U.S. had offered to send a lower-level diplomat to receive the presidency — as opposed to the typical handover ceremony, which is done on the G20 main stage and takes place between two heads of state. South Africa refused, with the country’s foreign minister, Ronald Lamola, telling reporters that the offer was communicated “at the eleventh hour,” and regardless, that handover needed to happen at an appropriate level. The handover ceremony will take place this week, but this time, between two lower-level officials from South Africa and the United States. “We will accord them the equivalent respect by ensuring that the person who receives, and does the handover, is an appropriate equal equivalent,” said Lamola.