Devex Newswire: The World Bank's $100 billion(ish) question

“Fund IDA.” It’s the rallying cry echoing all over the World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings this week — and literally plastered on traffic posts in downtown Washington, D.C.

IDA — officially the International Development Association — is the World Bank’s fund for the world’s lowest-income countries. It’s a lifeline for cash-strapped governments trying to lift people out of poverty and invest in a livable future, and it’s racing toward a vital fundraising deadline.

But in this time of “polycrisis” will IDA’s donors find a way to set aside the political and budgetary problems gripping them back home and rally for a renewed spirit of global solidarity? That is the $100 billion(ish) question.

Also in today’s edition: One of the EU’s top development officials pushes back on criticism, tuberculosis advocates do the math, and is the funding replenishment model outdated?

IDA thought this was settled

We’re talking IDA because today is the IDA forum at the annual meetings. It’s a chance for the World Bank to brief its civil society partners on IDA’s strategic policy proposals. The forum is closed to the press, but my colleague Adva Saldinger has this breakdown of everything under discussion to put you in the room.

But we’re also talking IDA today because numbers and policy jargon aside, this is one of those things in global development that truly matters for millions of people — whether they realize it or not.

After countries’ own national budgets, “IDA is probably the biggest and lowest cost source of financing that supports anti-poverty efforts,” Gargee Ghosh of the Gates Foundation tells Adva in this special edition of our weekly podcast.

The process of replenishing IDA and updating its policies began at the end of 2023 and will end in December at IDA’s replenishment conference in South Korea. This happens every three years, and it usually comes down to the wire. This is the 21st IDA replenishment, and the fund’s backers hope to break another fundraising record after hitting $93 billion in 2021.

This time around, the magic number is $100 billion. African heads of state have called for $120 billion, but that’s looking like a stretch.

Only about a quarter of that topline figure is money that donors actually put on the table. IDA leverages those grants to borrow additional money from capital markets and bundles it all up with funds from other sources.

If they’re going to celebrate a $100 billion success in Seoul, IDA’s advocates have their work cut out for them though, because of, well, [gestures anxiously at the entire world].

Whether you call it polycrisis, a perfect storm, or the new normal, IDA is calling on its donors at a time when they don’t have to look far to find excuses.

Some of the fund’s most reliable donors — France, Germany, and the United Kingdom — are facing economic troubles at home and cutting their aid budgets in response. The U.S., IDA's largest donor, is two weeks away from an election with major implications for development finance, while wars in Ukraine and Sudan, and a spiraling crisis in the Middle East are straining global resources.

Against that backdrop, we are in the midst of what the Center for Global Development has dubbed “the 2024-2025 replenishment traffic jam” — a stretch of months during which several of the biggest global health and development funds are asking donors for money at the same time.

And if that wasn’t already enough, a lot of this money isn’t worth as much as it used to be due to currency depreciation against the U.S. dollar. That means most countries have to pledge significantly more than they did three years ago even just to match their last contribution, let alone exceed it.

“We’re finding it really hard to get through this,” World Bank President Ajay Banga says.

We won’t know this week if IDA21 is a success or not. But as more details emerge about policy proposals and pushback, we will get a clearer picture of what kind of fund the World Bank is selling — and what it will take to get to $100 billion(ish).

Read: The World Bank’s IDA replenishment — the money, the odds, the high stakes

Listen: Reforming the international financial system for an era of polycrisis

+ Join us on Oct. 24 at the Studio Theatre in Washington, D.C., for Devex World. Happening just before the World Bank and IMF annual meetings, we’ll be diving into transformative ideas reshaping global development. We’d love to have you as part of the conversation. Get your tickets now.

Up for debate

Maybe this whole replenishment thing has run its course? In an opinion piece for Devex, social innovator Bright Simons makes the case that it’s time to stop asking a handful of wealthy countries to step up year after year, and instead to find a new model for global health financing.

Opinion: How the world funds global health is starting to look outdated

It’s a data

If you want to get your hands on some World Bank data — literally — head to the Atrium where the bank has installed a “data playground.” Devex Managing Editor Anna Gawel spent some time on the touchscreens, where you can track the bank’s progress on its corporate scorecard, review every country’s development indicators, or project the global shortage of health care workers in 2030.

(If you’re looking for the World Bank souvenir teddy bears, they’ve been relegated to the basement).

Why not both?

Koen Doens, the influential (though often unseen) director-general of the European Commission’s development department, does not buy the criticism that European aid has tilted too far toward self-interest.

“Why would we do it, if it's not to ensure European off-take?” Doens told the European Parliament’s Development Committee last week, referring to the commission’s recent interest in critical raw material partnerships.

There’s more than semantics at play here, as my colleague Vince Chadwick reports. The world’s third-largest aid donor has faced criticism for its latest “Global Gateway” investment strategy, which some argue focuses too little on health and education and too much on opening up markets to European companies.

Read: European aid is both 'self-interested' and 'generous,' says top official (Pro)

+ Not yet a Devex Pro member? Start your 15-day free trial today to access all our expert analyses, insider insights, funding data, exclusive events, and more. Check out all the exclusive content available to you.

Pro members can also enjoy a $400 discount on tickets for Devex World, where they have exclusive access to the Pro lounge for networking and meeting some of the speakers.

Left behind

Ten thousand petitioners are worried that tuberculosis is the neglected middle child in the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria’s funding portfolio.

My colleague Jenny Lei Ravelo reports that TB received only 18% of the Global Fund’s allocations, despite the disease killing 1.3 million people in 2022 — compared to 630,000 people and 608,000 people for HIV and malaria respectively.

A Global Fund spokesperson tells Jenny that while the death toll of the three diseases is a critical factor in determining the funding split, it’s not the only consideration.

Read: The battle for limited Global Fund resources

+ For the latest insider and behind-the-scenes coverage of global health, sign up for Devex CheckUp, a free, weekly newsletter.

In other news

Rising polio cases in Pakistan are prompting a major vaccination drive targeting 32 million children, even as violence against health workers continues to challenge eradication efforts. [AP]

More than 40 climate scientists urged Nordic ministers to prevent the collapse of a vital Atlantic Ocean current system that could disrupt Europe's climate and Arctic ecosystems. [Reuters]

U.N. experts condemned Tunisia's deadly crackdown on migrants and asylum-seekers, citing brutal interceptions at sea, disappearances, and at least 189 deaths while crossing the Mediterranean Sea during the first seven months of 2024. [DW]

Sign up to Newswire for an inside look at the biggest stories in global development.