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    • Devex Money Matters

    Money Matters: Predicting the future of US aid spending

    A new analysis of the U.S. foreign aid cuts show that while most programs have been cut, many of the largest have been retained. Plus, what’s up at the U.S. State Department? And which development employers are still hiring?

    By David Ainsworth // 24 March 2025
    Sign up to Money Matters today.

    It’s once again been a dramatic week for U.S. aid. First up, we bring you an analysis questioning the received wisdom about the state of spending cuts, followed by a look at what seems to be a shifting landscape inside the U.S. State Department.

    + Are there topics you want to read more about in Money Matters? We want your feedback.

    How much has been cut?

    This is a preview of Devex Money Matters
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    Right now, we have a fairly limited understanding of which USAID programs have actually been cut. Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, announced that around 5,200 had been stopped, and 1,000 continued — but there still appears to be plenty of movement within the State Department when it comes to exactly what is being canceled.

    As we’ve written before, many programs have been through a confusing maelstrom, with some paused, then given waivers, then terminated, and then reinstated.

    We’re working hard behind the scenes to try to bring you a complete list, but in the meantime, we’re relying at least partially on a number of lists that have been leaked — maybe from the State Department — to various sources.

    According to an analysis last week by the Center for Global Development, a transatlantic development think tank, those lists yield a surprising conclusion. While most programs have been cut, many of the largest have been retained.

    Their estimate — which, admittedly, is delivered with multiple caveats — is that only 34% of the dollar value of awards have been terminated. Some of the biggest areas of USAID spending, such as food, health, and humanitarian aid, have been treated more favorably, while other sectors — areas such as good governance, civil society, political competition and consensus building — have seen most or all awards canceled.

    This is, as CGD senior fellow Charles Kenny says, still “a long way from good” — especially because there are other big problems. There are very few specialist foreign aid staff left working, so who will administer these awards, or make new ones? Is any money actually going out of the door?

    But it is a somewhat more optimistic picture than earlier reports suggested.

    Read: Has USAID spending been cut by less than we thought?

    ICYMI: Inside USAID's postmortem program review

    + Join us tomorrow, March 25, for a live panel featuring leading experts from all sides of the political spectrum to take stock of what's left of U.S. foreign aid and what's next. Save your spot now.

    This event is exclusively for Devex Pro members. Not yet gone Pro? Start your 15-day free trial now to access the event and all our exclusive offerings!

    Funding activity

    We publish tenders, grants, and other funding announcements on our Funding Platform. Here are some of the ones that have been viewed the most in the past 10 days.

    The European Union is providing €1.2 million ($1.3 million) emergency funding to support Uganda’s response to the Ebola outbreak.

    The World Bank has approved $33 million in additional financing to strengthen the resilience of refugees and host communities in Benin.

    The Asian Development Bank has signed a $150 million loan to provide educational facilities to students in Vietnam.

    The United Nations is seeking a qualified organization to improve water, sanitation and hygiene, or WASH, services in Ethiopia.

    The African Development Bank invites eligible consultancy firms to conduct the end-term evaluation and development of the Youth Skills and Jobs Action Plan for Africa.

    Belgian development agency Enabel is recruiting a team of experts to design a high-quality guide for structuring teaching and learning in technical and vocational training institutions across Burundi.

    + Try out Devex Pro Funding today with a free five-day trial, and explore funding opportunities from over 850 sources in addition to our analysis and news content.

    State in a state?

    The doors of USAID are closed … for now. It’s not yet a done deal — a judge last week found that the shutdown of the agency was likely unconstitutional — but it does raise questions about what might happen next.

    As mentioned above, the Republican administration appears to plan to deliver very substantial aid programs, at least based on what we can discern about the programs retained following their review.

    Peter Marocco, one of the architects of the dismantling of USAID, may feel the action has moved elsewhere: Last week he moved on from his interim job as the agency’s deputy administrator, although he continues to hold the senior aid role at the State Department.

    Marocco himself laid out a very broad vision in a terse blog last week, saying that additional capacity will be built at the State Department to manage aid going forward, and that there will be an “ongoing government-wide review of all foreign assistance programs.”

    Elsewhere, a leaked memo has laid out plan to replace USAID with a new humanitarian agency — provoking mixed reactions in the sector, as discussed by my colleagues on our weekly podcast.

    All of this can be set against the backdrop of decisions in the U.S. Congress — which has passed a continuing resolution requiring the administration to spend almost $60 billion in foreign assistance by Sept. 30.

    Read: How is this ‘reimagined’ proposal for USAID hitting the sector?

    ICYMI: Memo lays out plan to replace USAID with new humanitarian agency

    Pound notes

    The United Kingdom is also lining up another budget cut. But what will get cut? Where will the money go? Who will the winners and losers be?

    As we discussed last week, a lot of that is still to be decided, with plenty to play for in the two years before the cut officially takes effect. Jessica Abrahams, writing for Devex, has taken a look at the potential impacts.

    Read: Inside the UK aid cuts — what will the 0.3% budget cover? (Pro)

    Job lot

    This week, we’ve been looking at resources for those who have been laid off, and we’ve found that the sector has rallied round to build a strong infrastructure to help new job seekers.

    We’ve also looked at the hiring environment. According to an analysis by my colleagues Genevieve Gregorio and Kristiana Louise Ortega, based on data from the Devex job board, a number of big agencies are still hiring, and the overall decline has been surprisingly modest.

    Read: For those laid off from USAID, new job resources are plentiful (Career)

    Read: Who is still hiring in the US? (Career)

    + A Devex Career Account membership gives you access to all our career content, including timely reports analyzing development career trends, the full Devex job board, exclusive events for insights from top career coaches and sector leaders, and more. Start your 15-day free trial now.

    Sign up to Money Matters for an inside look at the biggest stories in development funding.

    • Funding
    • Institutional Development
    • Trade & Policy
    • United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
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    About the author

    • David Ainsworth

      David Ainsworth@daveainsworth4

      David Ainsworth is business editor at Devex, where he writes about finance and funding issues for development institutions. He was previously a senior writer and editor for magazines specializing in nonprofits in the U.K. and worked as a policy and communications specialist in the nonprofit sector for a number of years. His team specializes in understanding reports and data and what it teaches us about how development functions.

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